Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-28 21:02 | v9 | Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initia | YES 100 | settled +119 | model 1.00; edge +0.57; luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.57 >= 0.3): The YES condition has already occurred: on August 26, Box Office Mojo reported official domestic actuals of $8,110,460 for The Odyssey versus $3,147,879 for Spider-Man: Brand New Day. Both films were still in their initial theatri |
| 08-27 08:23 | v9 | Will I get a positive pregnancy test in the next two weeks? | NO 53 | settled +35 | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): No information was provided about recent sex, ovulation timing, contraception, fertility, or whether pregnancy is being attempted, so I used a cautious low-to-moderate baseline. Pregnancy tests are most reliable from the first mis |
| 08-27 03:17 | v9 | Will Eliana and Spencer (still) be dating on December 1st, 2026? | NO 66 | open +5 | model 0.03; edge -0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.37 (edge -0.34 >= 0.3): Public profiles identify Eliana Kalogeras’s boyfriend as Noah Risling, with documented appearances together through 2026, not Spencer. Searches for an Eliana–Spencer relationship found no credible current evidence, so the probabil |
| 08-27 03:03 | v9 | Will Xi Jinping meet Vladimir Putin before Christmas Eve 2028? | YES 17 | open +22 | model 0.88; edge +0.82; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs market 0.06 (edge +0.82 >= 0.3): Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met repeatedly in 2025–2026, including in person in Moscow and Beijing, and Putin invited Xi to Russia in 2027. Their strong strategic alignment and recurring multilateral summits make another meeting |
| 08-26 20:38 | v9 | Will my brother‘s friend be annoying to me tomorrow? | NO 100 | settled +777 | model 0.50; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs market 0.95 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): There is no information about the friend’s behavior, your interactions, or whether you will even see them tomorrow. With the resolution rules also unspecified, the evidence supports a neutral estimate rather than a directional one |
| 08-26 18:17 | v9 | Will Chat GPT Astra or GPT6 have safeguard triggers like Anthropic models? | YES 100 | settled +100 | model 0.78; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.48 (edge +0.30 >= 0.3): OpenAI already documents fallback routing for high-risk cyber requests and quota limits, while its Astra disclosures describe stricter deployment safeguards, monitoring, and interruption of risky activity. Given Astra’s reported c |
| 08-26 18:13 | v9 | Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? | YES 100 | settled -100 | model 0.82; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.48 (edge +0.34 >= 0.3): Zvi has a strong recent pattern of publishing standalone posts on notable model releases, including GLM-5.2 and Gemini Flash, and he already highlighted GLM-5.3 in AI #182. GLM-5.3-Flash is a distinct, same-day release with open w |
| 08-26 18:09 | v9 | Will Fable 5.1 still trigger safeguards all the time? | NO 100 | open -0 | model 0.38; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs market 0.80 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Anthropic has already reduced biology-related Fable 5 fallbacks by about 85%, and its stated goal is to reduce false positives, suggesting a 5.1 update would likely improve ordinary use. However, cyber safeguards remain deliberate |
| 08-26 17:23 | v9 | Mumbai Escort Service | NO 49 | cancelled | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): The site was inaccessible, and searches found no credible independent reviews or evidence supporting claims of pinnacle quality, discretion, or guaranteed satisfaction. The only clear mention was an unrelated, spam-like backlink, |
| 08-26 17:21 | v9 | Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday? | NO 100 | open -1 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Marvel and Disney’s official cast materials still omit Tobey Maguire, making his appearance—and therefore a YES outcome—less likely. Unverified August reports claim motion-capture footage and leaked scenes showing his Spider-Man i |
| 08-26 10:34 | v9 | Will the US threaten to attack Canada before 2027? | NO 60 | open +14 | model 0.06; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): On August 23, senior U.S. official Sean Duffy said Canada had no military and that going to war with Trump would be foolish, while Trump has escalated trade threats and previously called military action against Canada highly unlik |
| 08-26 06:34 | v9 | Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026? | YES 30 | open -4 | model 0.99; edge +0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.59 (edge +0.40 >= 0.3): Federal Register document 2026-17294, signed August 18 and published August 24, temporarily suspended the additional duties in Proclamations 11046–11048 and amended their effective date. This directly satisfies the YES rule becaus |
| 08-26 03:08 | v9 | Is this free mana? | NO 73 | settled -73 | model 0.00; edge -0.52; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.52 (edge -0.52 >= 0.3): The resolution rules explicitly state “No,” so the contract is defined to resolve NO rather than YES. The question provides no qualifying context that could override this stated resolution. |
| 08-26 00:07 | v9 | Will I be able to code something illegal to a video game by 6pm? | NO 33 | settled -33 | model 0.35; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.35 vs market 0.75 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): The question gives no information about your current time, coding skill, target game, or what "illegal" means, so the event is highly uncertain. The same-day deadline leaves limited time, leading me to estimate a below-even chance |
| 08-25 01:50 | v9 | Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026? | YES 21 | open +40 | model 0.58; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.33 >= 0.3): Tesla’s Q2 filing confirms production Cybercabs are undergoing public-road tests and employee rides, while Reuters reports a planned Austin public-service rollout shortly after the September launch event. However, Tesla has not ap |
| 08-24 19:43 | v9 | Will University of North Carolina researcher Bryan Roth win the Nobel Prize for his DREADDs research? | NO 67 | open +9 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Roth’s lab pioneered DREADDs in 2007, and the technology is widely used and explicitly recognized by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences as a major advance in neuroscience, pharmacology, and physiology. However, Nobel Prizes |
| 08-24 17:45 | v9 | Will I write 50 haiku (again) before Green Bay wins 5 regular season games? | NO 47 | open -0 | model 0.12; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.47 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): Green Bay’s first ten games include several plausible wins, so a fifth regular-season victory is more likely around late October or early November. The seven-month hiatus caused by the Web3 technical issue makes producing 50 haiku |
| 08-24 17:37 | v9 | Weighing Utility: Pain or Gain? | NO 53 | settled -31 | model 0.10; edge -0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.51 (edge -0.41 >= 0.3): The billion-dollar outcome has enormous but diminishing personal utility, while the stated stabbing outcome is an almost-certain severe quality-of-life loss at low P. Strong aversion to catastrophic pain makes a roughly 10% gain p |
| 08-24 16:57 | v9 | Will Captain Sauce upload a video this week? | YES 63 | settled +33 | model 0.95; edge +0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.95 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.40 >= 0.3): CaptainSauce uploaded long-form videos on August 5, 8, 12, 15, and 22, 2026, and recent community evidence says his current schedule is Wednesdays and Saturdays. With another full week remaining before September 1 and a stated bat |
| 08-24 15:23 | v9 | Will David Portnoy give a second pizza a 10.0 rating by the end of 2029? | NO 57 | open +0 | model 0.08; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.55 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): The official rankings show Monte’s as the sole 10.0 among 2,149 reviews, while the next-best scores are only 9.4, and the score was an early 2015 hometown exception. Despite sustained reviewing through August 2026—including nine M |
| 08-24 14:35 | v9 | Swiss federal Neutrality Initiative passes | NO 100 | open +39 | model 0.12; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.44 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): The 3–16 August gfs.bern/SRG survey had 42% intending Yes versus 54% No, while YouGov’s 3–17 August poll found 41% Yes, 50% No, and only Ticino showing clear canton-level support. The Federal Council and Parliament oppose the init |
| 08-24 14:27 | v9 | Will Canada retaliate and impose tariffs against the US by Sept 15 | YES 58 | settled +49 | model 0.92; edge +0.51; luna-medium price-blind says 0.92 vs market 0.41 (edge +0.51 >= 0.3): Canada’s Prime Minister officially announced dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs, and the government’s August 22 readout says they will come into force the Tuesday after Labour Day, September 8, after U.S. tariffs already took effec |
| 08-24 11:39 | v9 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 75 | settled -75 | model 0.00; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Six Millennium problems remain unsolved, and recent AI achievements—autonomously resolving prominent smaller open problems and nine Erdős problems—still fall far short of the depth and originality required here. With only 37 days |
| 08-24 10:07 | v9 | How Much Liquid Can You Bring on a Plane? | YES 70 | cancelled | model 0.99; edge +0.56; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.43 (edge +0.56 >= 0.3): TSA’s current guidance confirms the 3-1-1 rule: carry-on liquids, gels, aerosols, creams, and pastes must generally be in containers of 3.4 ounces/100 mL or less, fitting in one quart-size clear bag per passenger. TSA also confirm |
| 08-24 06:41 | v9 | Will China buy the H200 from NVIDIA | YES 43 | open +4 | model 0.78; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.29 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): The strongest evidence is that Beijing has already permitted roughly 10,000-chip deliveries each to ByteDance and Tencent, while Reuters/FT reporting says several other Chinese firms may soon receive similar shipments and Nvidia p |
| 08-24 06:15 | v9 | Will any of Levent Alpöge’s mathematical results with Claude be proven flawed by the end of the year? | YES 100 | open +11 | model 0.68; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): The Jacobian counterexample, Hadamard matrices, and rank claims have concrete exact-arithmetic or independently checkable evidence, so the newly posted S^6 construction is the main failure point. Its 100-page argument is already v |
| 08-24 03:50 | v9 | Will my company make a sale today? | NO 41 | settled +43 | model 0.18; edge -0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.59 (edge -0.41 >= 0.3): After two months with no sales, the base rate for a first-ever purchase arriving on one specific day remains low, despite the creator’s expectation that today is more promising than yesterday. Public searching found product visibi |
| 08-24 03:13 | v9 | Will the San Francisco Giants beat the Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 or more runs on August 27, 2026? (8/27/26) | NO 40 | cancelled | model 0.17; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs market 0.48 (edge -0.31 >= 0.3): The Giants are 52-78 with a -80 run differential and 29-33 at home, while Arizona is 68-62 with a +7 differential and has won 8 of 9 head-to-head games in 2026. The projected matchup also favors Arizona: Michael Soroka is listed a |
| 08-24 00:39 | v9 | Will Levent's proof that S^2 admits a complex structure hold up? | NO 100 | open -84 | model 0.18; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.49 (edge -0.31 >= 0.3): Interpreting S^2 as the clearly intended S^6, the claim is a 100-page Claude-assisted proof of a longstanding open problem, with no expert verification yet and immediate discussion emphasizing how difficult it will be to check. Le |
| 08-23 23:45 | v9 | Will the purported construction of a complex structure on S^6 by Levent Alpöge turn out to be correct? | NO 71 | open -31 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Alpöge’s current personal site does not list an S^6 paper, while the mathematical literature still treats the Hopf problem as open and documents repeated fatal flaws in purported solutions. His successful, readily checkable Jacobi |
| 08-23 22:52 | v9 | Will LegalEagle become the U.S. Attorney General before 2030? | NO 100 | open +76 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Stone is a qualified attorney and prominent legal commentator, but his documented career is civil litigation, teaching, and YouTube rather than elected office, federal prosecution, DOJ leadership, or prior political appointments. |
| 08-23 22:46 | v9 | Was the Hawk fire in Reno Nevada started intentionally? | NO 39 | open +4 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Authorities confirmed only that the Hawk Fire was human-caused and said they had no additional details because the ignition remained under investigation, which does not distinguish arson or deliberate ignition from accidental recr |
| 08-23 20:32 | v9 | Will my company make its first sale today? | NO 69 | settled +36 | model 0.01; edge -0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.40 (edge -0.39 >= 0.3): LongWall Labs has recorded zero sales in approximately two months, and its website requires account access with reviewed orders rather than offering a public checkout ([site](https://longwalllabs.com/)). The restricted lab-only ca |
| 08-23 19:24 | v9 | Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? | NO 47 | open +14 | model 0.12; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.31 >= 0.3): As of August 23, 2026, H.R. 9925 has only been introduced, has six bipartisan cosponsors, and is awaiting consideration by the House Energy and Commerce and Science committees, with no Senate companion or recorded committee advanc |
| 08-23 12:56 | v9 | Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026? | NO 100 | open +80 | model 0.08; edge -0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.47 (edge -0.39 >= 0.3): Ohtani had 30 home runs through the Dodgers’ 130th game, leaving 32 games and requiring 13 homers to reach 43; his recent 4-homer burst in the last 15 days supports some upside but still falls well short of that required pace. His |
| 08-22 23:21 | v9 | Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026? | YES 71 | settled +41 | model 0.99; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): The r/HIMRFAM2 community documented Daniel’s return with a public YouTube livestream on July 17, 2026, and archived additional streams dated August 4 and August 8, all before the deadline. The August 8 archive specifically identif |
| 08-22 20:35 | v9 | Coca-Cola's 2026 Christmas Commercial Substantially AI Generated? | YES 49 | open +6 | model 0.84; edge +0.51; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.33 (edge +0.51 >= 0.3): Coca-Cola used AI for its flagship holiday advertising in both 2024 and 2025, calling the 2024 film entirely GenAI-created and saying in 2025 that its AI holiday work was part of an ongoing journey; its AI chief also said the comp |
37 trades, 2,460 staked, realised +922, open +402 if held / +204 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
37 trades for 2,460 mana. 14 of them settled for +922.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.