Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 72 | 1,800 | +199.3 (24 settled) | +368.5 | +68.9 | +7.89 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 00:25 | v9 | Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026? | NO 25 | open +6 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.42; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 20:32 | v9 | Will Mitch McConnell speak this year? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 13:13 | v9 | Week 2 EPL- Crystal Palace vs Manchester City (August 28 2026) Will Manchester City WIN @ Crystal Palace? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.63; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 12:02 | v9 | The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.63; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 11:52 | v9 | Week 2 EPL- Crystal Palace vs Manchester City (August 28 2026) Will Manchester City WIN @ Crystal Palace? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 120-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.59; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 11:20 | v9 | Will we get AGI before 2029? | NO 25 | open -1 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.32->0.39; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 08:51 | v9 | Will I pay any money to Manifold during 2026 for something in the site? | NO 25 | open +31 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.71; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 06:27 | v9 | Robot assembles IKEA furniture using printed instructions, before 2030? | NO 25 | open -1 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 06:27 | v9 | Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031? | NO 25 | open -6 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.65; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-28 00:21 | v9 | Will Destiny sue anyone? | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.41->0.64; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 22:53 | v9 | Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.85->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 15:40 | v9 | Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? | NO 25 | open +33 | fade: single 1250-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.65; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 15:06 | v9 | Gianni Infantino announces he is out as FIFA President before end of 2026? | NO 25 | open +5 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.19->0.32; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 14:55 | v9 | Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana? | NO 25 | settled +51 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.60->0.67; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 13:01 | v9 | Is King Harald V of Norway alive 31 Dec 2026? | NO 25 | settled +54 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.18->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 04:29 | v9 | Will there be a masters league in 2026 (after April) with a user worth less than 20k mana? | NO 25 | open -2 | fade: single 117-mana YES bet pushed 0.41->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 04:09 | v9 | If Trump Wins, will the USA pass more Ukraine aid at least once before the 2026 midterm elections? | NO 25 | open +0 | fade: single 433-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.50; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-27 01:23 | v9 | Will a community college win top 5 at the 2026 Putnam? | NO 25 | open +2 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.19->0.25; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 21:47 | v9 | EPL: Will 3 or more total goals be scored in the Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City match on August 28, 2026? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.83; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 15:26 | v9 | Will my brother win the game Tapestry in the next two days? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 1250-mana YES bet pushed 0.89->0.94; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 15:26 | v9 | Will my brother win the game Tapestry in the next two days? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 1250-mana YES bet pushed 0.84->0.93; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 13:23 | v9 | Will Tesla have a operational Robotaxi that they are announcing on 8/8 operation in the US, by the end of 2026 | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.80->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 03:15 | v9 | Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana? | NO 25 | settled +36 | fade: single 125-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.59; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 02:00 | v9 | AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026? | NO 25 | open +16 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.43->0.56; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 02:00 | v9 | AI beats human baseline on PostTrainBench by 1 Oct 2026? | NO 25 | open +7 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.29->0.44; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 01:54 | v9 | Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028? | NO 25 | open -10 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.46->0.53; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-26 01:54 | v9 | Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028? | NO 25 | open -12 | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.29->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 23:30 | v9 | Will Darline Graham run for and win Lindsey Graham's senate seat in the 2026 Senate Election? | NO 25 | open +23 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.63->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 23:27 | v9 | Will there be a confirmed case of Cyclosporiasis in ALL 48 US contiguous states before the end of August 2026? | NO 25 | settled +11 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.24->0.31; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 22:26 | v9 | Russia announces new wave of mobilization before November 2026 | NO 25 | open +4 | fade: single 138-mana YES bet pushed 0.21->0.30; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 22:00 | v9 | Will I promote to Masters? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.86->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 16:52 | v9 | Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.27->0.34; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 15:25 | v9 | SpaceX vs Tesla - Will SpaceX have a higher market cap than Tesla on Dec. 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open -1 | fade: single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.64; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 14:39 | v9 | Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2027? | NO 25 | open +33 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.77->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 13:31 | v9 | Will a video made entirely with AI reach 100 million views on YouTube in 2026? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.77->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 12:41 | v9 | If elected, will Zohran Mamdani maintain a net positive approval rating by August 2028? | NO 25 | open +5 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.71; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 12:25 | v9 | Before the end of 2035, will transracialism become as common as transgenderism was in 2022? | NO 25 | open +0 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.04->0.10; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 11:59 | v9 | Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | NO 25 | open -22 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.82->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 00:47 | v9 | Will SpaceX reach $3T? | NO 25 | open +12 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 00:46 | v9 | Will SpaceX reach $3T? | NO 25 | open +13 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-25 00:07 | v9 | Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.49; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 21:03 | v9 | Will Argentina’s country risk fall below 500bps before September 2026? | NO 25 | settled +118 | fade: single 126-mana YES bet pushed 0.46->0.83; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 15:42 | v9 | Will Argentina’s country risk fall below 500bps before September 2026? | NO 25 | settled +114 | fade: single 116-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 15:22 | v9 | Will my company make a sale today? | NO 25 | settled +26 | fade: single 140-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.53; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 14:05 | v9 | Will Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027? | NO 25 | open +9 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.29->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 12:39 | v9 | Apple to release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | NO 25 | open -22 | fade: single 2500-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 07:27 | v9 | Tesla will begin offering a truly driverless taxi service to the general public in at least one city in 2026 | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 750-mana YES bet pushed 0.82->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-24 03:16 | v9 | Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030? | NO 25 | open -6 | fade: single 180-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 23:01 | v9 | Will the Elgin Marbles be returned to Greece before 2030? | NO 25 | open +2 | fade: single 176-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.56; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 22:25 | v9 | Will the 2026-27 CFP be won by a conference champion? | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 22:19 | v9 | Will AI fully automate Cochrane-style systematic reviews by end of 2027? | NO 25 | open +4 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.21->0.34; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 22:16 | v9 | Will Anthony Joshua and Logan Paul compete against one another in a boxing match before the end of 2027 | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.24; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 22:10 | v9 | Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030? | NO 25 | open -0 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.59->0.83; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 22:08 | v9 | Will Donald Trump pardon any of his cabinet members from his second term? | NO 25 | open -1 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.62; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 21:55 | v9 | Will Democrats control both the House and the Senate after the 2026 midterms? | NO 25 | open -2 | fade: single 144-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.56; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 21:48 | v9 | Will a Latin American country pass legislation attempting to regulate AI before end of 2025? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.83->0.93; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 19:59 | v9 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +82 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 18:34 | v9 | Will Sweden adopt the Euro before 2032? | NO 25 | open +0 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.23; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 18:20 | v9 | "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide? | NO 25 | open -22 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 18:02 | v9 | "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide? | NO 25 | open -24 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.37->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 13:39 | v9 | Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? | NO 25 | open +2 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.34; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 12:55 | v9 | 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 102-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 10:57 | v9 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +82 | fade: single 412-mana YES bet pushed 0.71->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 10:01 | v9 | Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? | NO 25 | open +25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.82->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 08:06 | v9 | Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027? | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.72->0.79; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 07:21 | v9 | Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2028? | NO 25 | open +4 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.67; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 04:06 | v9 | Will Jared Goff be on the Lions on June 1, 2027? | NO 25 | open +0 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.77->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 04:03 | v9 | Will California authorize more housing units in 2028 than 2027? | NO 25 | open +1 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.64->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-22 22:31 | v9 | Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030? | NO 25 | open -17 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-22 22:27 | v9 | Will the Navier-Stokes problem be solved by 2030? | NO 25 | open -23 | fade: single 750-mana YES bet pushed 0.32->0.62; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-22 22:27 | v9 | Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.18->0.25; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-22 22:25 | v9 | Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2030? | NO 25 | open -1 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.15->0.20; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
72 trades, 1,800 staked, realised +199, open +369 if held / +69 if sold.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 1,800 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.