Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 34 | 1,591 | +211.5 (3 settled) | -123.8 | -220.3 | +2.58 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 15:58 | v89 | TIsCu3cx29xa4QPzTkhA | NO 74 | open +4 | fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.67; market not in cache |
| 09-22 08:42 | v89 | Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026? | NO 44 | open -0 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 08:38 | v89 | Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election? | NO 37 | open -0 | fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:35 | v89 | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026? | NO 14 | open +3 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:24 | v89 | Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026? | NO 11 | open -0 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:10 | v89 | Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true? | NO 12 | open +0 | fade: single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.58->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 05:10 | v89 | Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true? | NO 28 | open -6 | fade: single 80-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 04:57 | v89 | Manifold allows you to set starting percentage for sets and multi choice by end of month? | NO 22 | open -11 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:48 | v89 | Rams win by over 5 vs giants | NO 85 | open -82 | fade: single 520-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:43 | v89 | OpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:40 | v89 | Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027? | NO 19 | open +3 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 20:45 | v89 | Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or more? | NO 146 | open -7 | fade: single 400-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 19:09 | v89 | Opus 5.2 released in September? | NO 85 | open +24 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.24; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 17:26 | v89 | Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? | NO 92 | open -3 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.02->0.14; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 15:06 | v89 | Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026 | NO 115 | open -98 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.07->0.21; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 13:21 | v89 | Will a millennium problem be solved in 2027? | NO 5 | open +2 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.62->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 12:01 | v89 | US Average Gas Price Is $4.400 or more on October 1 2026? | NO 6 | open +1 | fade: single 474-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 05:14 | v89 | 9OunqnRCP9 | NO 4 | open +0 | fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.60; market not in cache |
| 09-21 04:43 | v89 | Will Barack Obama participate in a rally for Abdul El Sayed? | NO 40 | open -6 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.27->0.55; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 04:39 | v89 | Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate? | NO 4 | open +0 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.60; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 04:38 | v89 | Will Troy Jackson get 50% or more in the first round of the Maine senate election? | NO 85 | open -5 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 02:14 | v89 | Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00 | NO 15 | open -2 | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 21:43 | v89 | q8S9UNq0P2 | NO 13 | open -1 | fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.71; market not in cache |
| 09-20 20:18 | v89 | Will any NFL game go to overtime this week? | NO 2 | settled -2 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.67->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 18:24 | v89 | Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026? | NO 85 | open +11 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.44; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 18:05 | v89 | CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Dec 2026? | NO 85 | open -2 | fade: single 5000-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 16:58 | v89 | k8H4PkC2pBCf1oBrAVc3 | NO 48 | open -22 | fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.66->0.88; market not in cache |
| 09-20 15:39 | v89 | Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026? | NO 77 | open -10 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.12->0.43; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 12:54 | v89 | hlw | NO 99 | settled +36 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.16->0.67; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 12:40 | v89 | Pnuty2C0y6 | NO 139 | settled +178 | fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.90; market not in cache |
| 09-20 03:01 | v89 | Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? | NO 49 | open -5 | fade: single 190-mana YES bet pushed 0.26->0.38; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 02:47 | v89 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $102 on September 24, 2026? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.35->0.47; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 20:54 | v89 | ysQ2EcCuAR | NO 16 | open -4 | fade (blind, verify after): single 268-mana YES bet pushed 0.76->0.90; market not in cache |
| 09-19 18:17 | v89 | Will the 2027 Finnish parliamentary elections be held on April 18, 2027? | NO 34 | open -3 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.60; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
34 trades, 1,591 staked, realised +211, open -124 if held / -220 if sold, 2 unfilled.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163425 | -0.004 | 1,500 | uISNlAqC2E | pushed down | |
| 163332 | +0.000 | 100 | CL56c9sqQp | barely moved | |
| 162513 | +0.009 | 200 | tRUgzgUnhc | barely moved | |
| 162303 | +0.001 | 93 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 162220 | -0.024 | 100 | A6O0SUA58N | pushed down | |
| 162105 | +0.004 | 250 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 162054 | +0.003 | 105 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | barely moved | |
| 162040 | +0.001 | 65 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 162039 | +0.005 | 250 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 162004 | +0.003 | 105 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | barely moved | |
| 161918 | +0.003 | 105 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | barely moved | |
| 161850 | -0.020 | 2,000 | A319ydGB1B7f4PMOROL3 | pushed down | |
| 161815 | +0.010 | 50 | 2qZqtN862U | barely moved | |
| 161800 | +0.004 | 50 | AN6lnyQdcI | barely moved | |
| 161633 | +0.001 | 50 | CE5qOc6g2O | barely moved | |
| 161532 | -0.011 | 150 | pZpEqPAq5U | pushed down | |
| 161530 | -0.014 | 50 | dnL9sR88ns | pushed down | |
| 161521 | -0.011 | 150 | gRpZ9qqsEN | pushed down | |
| 161442 | - | 0 | 89qCL88usS | price extreme | |
| 161439 | +0.171 | 50 | How many hours will I study on 23 September 2026? | wrong type | |
| 161434 | +0.031 | 50 | Spycn8CsdA | barely moved | |
| 161408 | +0.011 | 50 | nZsucEQ8gQ | barely moved | |
| 161338 | +0.004 | 50 | tdA9NqRnpZ | barely moved | |
| 161333 | +0.061 | 100 | AcAn56pLAd | barely moved | |
| 161330 | +0.064 | 100 | AcAn56pLAd | barely moved | |
| 161153 | -0.026 | 50 | EURNs8lnNl | pushed down | |
| 161058 | +0.012 | 250 | C0lt2RUPSL | barely moved | |
| 161045 | -0.035 | 50 | JikZ1T5MkKvA95jtyCEn | pushed down | |
| 160936 | +0.007 | 300 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160920 | -0.003 | 1,250 | 5gLqZ9hdIp | pushed down | |
| 160917 | -0.032 | 125 | QdhyScACtC | pushed down | |
| 160916 | -0.027 | 100 | QdhyScACtC | pushed down | |
| 160915 | - | 1,000 | Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar? | type off | |
| 160906 | +0.018 | 100 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 160854 | +0.005 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160843 | +0.015 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160839 | +0.026 | 250 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160833 | +0.029 | 250 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 160659 | +0.001 | 50 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | barely moved | |
| 160624 | +0.011 | 50 | q0dlQLsl9A | barely moved | |
| 160500 | +0.010 | 500 | RqCuspq8Nn | barely moved | |
| 160443 | +0.034 | 2,000 | ULun8EOAAn | barely moved | |
| 160442 | - | 0 | ULzPA0ul0l | price extreme | |
| 160437 | - | 0 | Both Opus and Sol released this week? | wrong phase | |
| 160417 | - | 0 | tRUgzgUnhc | price extreme | |
| 160354 | +0.002 | 50 | NIlsOpzZuI | barely moved | |
| 160347 | +0.014 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 160341 | +0.015 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 160328 | -0.088 | 50 | UA9tQII8R0 | pushed down | |
| 160325 | -0.099 | 50 | UA9tQII8R0 | pushed down | |
| 160311 | +0.024 | 464 | UA9tQII8R0 | barely moved | |
| 160253 | -0.006 | 3,500 | sf9wxu6w5b | pushed down | |
| 160245 | +0.012 | 468 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160242 | +0.005 | 91 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160241 | +0.010 | 433 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160238 | +0.017 | 559 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160235 | +0.022 | 635 | SCnZAUUzEP | barely moved | |
| 160228 | -0.011 | 1,000 | 5gLqZ9hdIp | pushed down | |
| 160220 | +0.074 | 50 | zt00t6NzqR | barely moved | |
| 155829 | +0.000 | 500 | CL56c9sqQp | barely moved | |
| 155828 | -0.067 | 74 | TIsCu3cx29xa4QPzTkhA | pushed down | |
| 155711 | -0.006 | 300 | CL56c9sqQp | pushed down | |
| 155556 | -0.004 | 150 | clnEdSCuQR | pushed down | |
| 155536 | +0.044 | 250 | ddhA5Ihhlg | barely moved | |
| 155453 | -0.001 | 50 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | pushed down | |
| 155049 | -0.017 | 400 | td8NIdpz9N | pushed down | |
| 154856 | +0.041 | 150 | v7ipjkmh4f | barely moved | |
| 154823 | +0.006 | 50 | CL56c9sqQp | barely moved | |
| 154610 | -0.013 | 50 | hc0suUqASq | pushed down | |
| 154550 | +0.052 | 50 | g50EgzdUZO | barely moved | |
| 154504 | +0.056 | 50 | g50EgzdUZO | barely moved | |
| 154243 | -0.021 | 10,000 | Hb1ObYB1ONHzFFNLacMR | pushed down | |
| 154100 | -0.008 | 2,000 | ARzlN2p8lP | pushed down | |
| 153923 | - | 50 | Which country will win the 2026 Chess Olympiad (Open event)? | type off | |
| 153457 | -0.018 | 300 | CL56c9sqQp | pushed down | |
| 153434 | -0.145 | 70 | EncAzLS6qu | pushed down | |
| 153214 | +0.002 | 100 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | barely moved | |
| 153137 | +0.003 | 100 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | barely moved | |
| 153015 | +0.003 | 100 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | barely moved | |
| 152856 | -0.000 | 50 | nChh5Pzzsy | pushed down | |
| 152730 | -0.006 | 50 | qUI0gsAl8y | pushed down | |
| 152636 | -0.061 | 100 | tsQ659scCc | pushed down | |
| 152623 | -0.009 | 500 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | pushed down | |
| 152546 | +0.015 | 50 | PlRCt0hEEl | barely moved | |
| 152523 | -0.011 | 200 | PlRCt0hEEl | pushed down | |
| 152038 | -0.041 | 100 | tsQ659scCc | pushed down | |
| 152034 | -0.031 | 350 | tsQ659scCc | pushed down | |
| 151941 | -0.101 | 314 | ZQn9OunO5R | pushed down | |
| 151624 | -0.027 | 2,000 | yUE6ZLAp99 | pushed down | |
| 151541 | +0.008 | 50 | yUE6ZLAp99 | barely moved | |
| 151454 | +0.035 | 150 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 151338 | -0.021 | 200 | 9ptARy8dEt | pushed down | |
| 151325 | -0.039 | 300 | 9ptARy8dEt | pushed down | |
| 151256 | - | 50 | How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2026 UTC | type off | |
| 151250 | - | 60 | How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2026 UTC | type off | |
| 151030 | -0.021 | 300 | U6O2ugzczq | pushed down | |
| 151029 | +0.069 | 135 | O2yEUPcQtN | barely moved | |
| 150636 | -0.024 | 88 | w2Otx4TBDXcJm7qSb9sE | pushed down | |
| 150619 | -0.155 | 100 | ZQn9OunO5R | pushed down | |
| 150459 | -0.168 | 55 | Z9tp8ORlpl | pushed down | |
| 150452 | +0.000 | 50 | WCsjjEUk1vxRy1wHNi63 | barely moved | |
| 150401 | +0.006 | 50 | CL56c9sqQp | barely moved | |
| 150045 | +0.055 | 200 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 145609 | +0.009 | 1,000 | g0pyRzURty | barely moved | |
| 145514 | -0.026 | 50 | ctyRuqhsNp | pushed down | |
| 145508 | -0.020 | 50 | ctyRuqhsNp | pushed down | |
| 145455 | -0.027 | 100 | ctyRuqhsNp | pushed down | |
| 145111 | - | 0 | dssZtEtZ9n | position full | |
| 145011 | +0.024 | 50 | EURNs8lnNl | barely moved | |
| 144520 | +0.026 | 350 | C0lt2RUPSL | barely moved | |
| 144505 | +0.043 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 144411 | +0.046 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 144408 | +0.049 | 150 | dssZtEtZ9n | barely moved | |
| 144402 | - | 0 | dssZtEtZ9n | position full | |
| 144402 | -0.062 | 100 | dssZtEtZ9n | pushed down | |
| 144401 | +0.021 | 150 | AtFME96xyYes2Y7OQlJT | barely moved | |
| 144401 | -0.005 | 76 | AtFME96xyYes2Y7OQlJT | pushed down | |
| 144336 | - | 0 | dssZtEtZ9n | position full | |
| 144336 | -0.044 | 100 | dssZtEtZ9n | pushed down | |
| 144327 | -0.000 | 50 | uISNlAqC2E | pushed down | |
| 144029 | -0.002 | 100 | RfALGkrGogqjRjESxFn2 | pushed down | |
| 143942 | -0.004 | 100 | 052dsL0LR2 | pushed down | |
| 143619 | -0.036 | 203 | wrRZ4zwsh2GFJafcdZXr | pushed down | |
| 143521 | -0.007 | 250 | 9EG79Y5i8RC3l2iQIY6O | pushed down | |
| 143512 | +0.004 | 165 | 2snNALshs8 | barely moved | |
| 143434 | +0.006 | 211 | 2snNALshs8 | barely moved | |
| 143433 | -0.022 | 250 | Es2IQgnCp2 | pushed down | |
| 143356 | -0.001 | 50 | 5EyEO0nZRu | pushed down | |
| 143236 | +0.035 | 2,000 | Gb3oPonY3MKo6H92v12n | barely moved | |
| 143201 | +0.049 | 2,000 | Gb3oPonY3MKo6H92v12n | barely moved | |
| 143146 | -0.029 | 200 | CL56c9sqQp | pushed down | |
| 143045 | -0.001 | 50 | BpoEJNtlQoDBpfjBmK0y | pushed down | |
| 142920 | +0.011 | 50 | uyNZQZOnRC | barely moved | |
| 142758 | -0.115 | 80 | tSIlCOQt02 | pushed down | |
| 142547 | +0.098 | 50 | CdnldqZOcg | barely moved | |
| 142433 | - | 0 | Will I solve tomorrow’s integral in 10 minutes? (Day 11) | blocked topic | |
| 142217 | +0.016 | 50 | ICnSIPIgZO | barely moved | |
| 141631 | +0.001 | 200 | S9cnC5ZlRN | barely moved | |
| 141429 | -0.279 | 100 | AhnLddE8z2 | pushed down | |
| 140806 | -0.014 | 50 | OUl5yqzEQ9 | pushed down | |
| 140752 | -0.007 | 50 | OUl5yqzEQ9 | pushed down | |
| 140744 | -0.008 | 50 | OUl5yqzEQ9 | pushed down | |
| 140605 | +0.011 | 50 | 2qZqtN862U | barely moved | |
| 140551 | +0.009 | 100 | AN6lnyQdcI | barely moved | |
| 140510 | -0.009 | 150 | puLqZusPqU | pushed down | |
| 140353 | +0.054 | 50 | scPI6sLt5S | barely moved | |
| 140351 | -0.005 | 100 | 5EyEO0nZRu | pushed down | |
| 140339 | +0.018 | 50 | lct6lLAQq9 | barely moved | |
| 140255 | +0.035 | 50 | pcs58QCIgs | barely moved | |
| 140237 | +0.008 | 50 | 8Eq6ZI9OpP | barely moved | |
| 140159 | +0.028 | 50 | nn5ng86AUu | barely moved | |
| 140127 | +0.005 | 250 | ttCZpQ0O5p | barely moved | |
| 140119 | +0.005 | 250 | ln2cAICQ6d | barely moved | |
| 140053 | +0.001 | 50 | ttCZpQ0O5p | barely moved | |
| 140033 | +0.010 | 350 | ln2cAICQ6d | barely moved | |
| 140016 | +0.007 | 250 | ttCZpQ0O5p | barely moved | |
| 140010 | +0.009 | 250 | ttCZpQ0O5p | barely moved | |
| 135945 | +0.005 | 176 | ZQn9OunO5R | barely moved | |
| 135941 | +0.006 | 150 | ln2cAICQ6d | barely moved | |
| 135844 | -0.056 | 820 | zsA2CSIZ8z | pushed down |
Showing the newest 160 of 3,482 whale-sized bets.
Of 3,482 bets judged, 30 cleared every rule
and were faded for 1,591 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 16:37Z.