mc‑other

module 1.0 · v89 ← trader

When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.

A bet on Other also covers any answer added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.

The slice it fades

Who will be the favorite 2028 democratic nominee in betting markets by the end of 2026? :: Obet 9 mana · v89 · open +1
the named answers“other” at 0.20 → worth about 0.12

Where candidates died · 196 markets judged

155not a live multi-choiceresolved, closed, or not multiple-choice
15blocked topic or too far outa category with no usable history, or closing past the cap
11answers do not share a bookindependent answers belong to mc-indep
4no catch-allthe market has no Other answer to fade
3list still openanyone can add answers, so Other is not leftover - it is 'the winner is not listed yet'
3someone got there firstthe answers were traded before we arrived
2taken mid-decisionuntraded when we looked, traded by the time we acted
2blocked creatora creator whose markets do not resolve
1Other priced lowthe catch-all opened under the floor where fading pays

The book · v89

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-21 16:01v89Who will be the favorite 2028 democratic nominee in betting markets by the end of 2026? :: OtherNO 9open +1sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12

1 trade, 9 staked, realised +0, open +1 if held / +1 if sold.

1 catch-alls faded for 9 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. This module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 16:37Z.