The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 09:38 | v89 | LFzba11i0JDKYVHINEkF | YES 5 | open +0 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.25; market not in cache |
| 09-22 07:09 | v89 | SYbetSLhcSbiMvexpKzP | YES 18 | open -17 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.85->0.49; market not in cache |
| 09-22 03:02 | v89 | Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time? | YES 72 | settled +133 | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-22 00:38 | v89 | unuEEhzqQ9 | YES 14 | settled -14 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 54-mana NO bet pushed 0.59->0.34; market not in cache |
| 09-21 23:40 | v89 | Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time? | YES 2 | settled +4 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.45->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 22:19 | v89 | Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by the end of 2029? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 235-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 18:37 | v89 | Will the Chicago White Sox finish the 2026 regular season with at least 85 wins? | YES 6 | open -0 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.49->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 18:37 | v89 | Will the Chicago White Sox finish the 2026 regular season with at least 85 wins? | YES 18 | open -6 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.65->0.40; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 15:14 | v89 | Will Caleb Williams have 4k+ passing yards in the 2026 regular season? | YES 18 | open +5 | down-fade: single 750-mana NO bet pushed 0.51->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 08:14 | v89 | Will the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 form before October 1? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.41->0.26; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 04:59 | v89 | US Average Gas Price Is $4.5500 or more on October 1 2026? | YES 18 | open -7 | down-fade: single 827-mana NO bet pushed 0.67->0.42; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 02:14 | v89 | Will Guadians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.30? | YES 8 | open -0 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.54->0.21; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-21 02:13 | v89 | Will Guadians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.30? | YES 28 | open -16 | down-fade: single 400-mana NO bet pushed 0.78->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 20:03 | v89 | Will the UK Government reverse its current stance by approving at least one new North Sea oil & gas licence in | YES 3 | open +0 | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.43->0.23; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 19:13 | v89 | Does 2000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health? | YES 28 | open +6 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.71->0.50; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 19:13 | v89 | Does 1000 ppm carbon dioxide have significant negative effects on cognition or health? | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.64->0.35; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 15:31 | v89 | Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? | YES 76 | open +56 | down-fade: single 300-mana NO bet pushed 0.70->0.11; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 13:31 | v89 | Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027? | YES 28 | open +1 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.82->0.66; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-20 09:11 | v89 | l55s8SOhUt | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.26; market not in cache |
| 09-20 06:18 | v89 | Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time? | YES 18 | settled +33 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.74->0.46; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-19 18:19 | v89 | Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20 | YES 18 | settled +13 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.88->0.57; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
21 trades, 390 staked, realised +168, open +103 if held / +22 if sold, 3 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 16:31Z.