Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrada TT in X argentina before 20 September | 0.26 | 0.94 | +0.68 | bet 8 |
| Base rate is roughly 1–5% for an arbitrary Argentine footballer to trend on X in a day, rising to about 25–40% after a major River goal or senior call-up; the rules explicitly accept credible media, and Prensa X reports Andrada trending while TN corroborates the September 19 call-up, though this remains a proxy for the exact X Argentina TT list and creator acceptance is mildly ambiguous: [Prensa X](https://www.prensax.com/noticia/tendencia-andrada-2026-09-12), [TN](https://tn.com.ar/deportes/futbol/2026/09/19/lionel-scaloni-sumo-a-nueve-futbolistas-a-la-lista-de-convocados-para-los-proximos-amistosos-de-la-seleccion-argentina/). | ||||
| Will there be a Scorigami in week 3 of the 2025-26 NFL season? | 0.50 | 0.00 | -0.50 | bet 73 |
| Historical base rate is 70 Scorigamis in 2,746 recent NFL games (2.55%, roughly 34% for a 16-game week); the rules point to nflscorigami.com, whose Week 3 2025 result is corroborated as none by the [2025 tracker](https://primetimesportstalk.com/2025-nfl-scorigami-tracker/) and [official NFL scores](https://www.nfl.com/scores/2025/week-3), with no future calendar event relevant because Week 3 ended September 22, 2025. | ||||
| What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Louisiana defeats Wake Forest | 0.50 | 0.00 | -0.50 | bet 18 |
| Base rate: 0% because no Louisiana–Wake Forest game is scheduled; during Week 4 (Sep. 26), Louisiana plays Charlotte and Wake Forest plays Louisville, with those official schedules as the resolver, so YES would require a schedule/data error ([Louisiana](https://ragincajuns.com/sports/football/schedule/2026?grid=true), [ACC](https://theacc.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=4611)). | ||||
| Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Primetime | 0.50 | 0.99 | +0.49 | bet 100 |
| Base rate is 5/5 recent Oscars with exactly 10 Best Picture nominees; the 99th Oscars rules explicitly require ten, nominations are scheduled for January 21, 2027, and the exact resolver is the Academy’s official announcement, with only a small residual risk from the Academy’s stated ability to change rules ([rules](https://www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/2026-05/99th%20Best%20Picture%20Rules.pdf), [schedule](https://press.oscars.org/news/academy-and-abc-announce-show-dates-99th-and-100th-oscarsr)). | ||||
| Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: JYP | 0.50 | 0.01 | -0.49 | bet 72 |
| JYP’s 5–0 start and strong preseason projection make relegation far less likely than the 3/17 structural base rate, with the official Liiga standings as the resolver. | ||||
| Will a non-hyperlinear group be proved this month? | 0.50 | 0.01 | -0.49 | bet 71 |
| Base rate is 0 known valid non-hyperlinear groups over roughly two decades; current references still describe existence as open, the rules require a September proof plus later expert validation, no scheduled event or matching witness is evident, and no exact resolver beyond mathematical-community consensus is specified. | ||||
| UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended? | 0.35 | 0.84 | +0.49 | bet 42 |
| The 80% historical modification rate, combined with the government’s existing commitment to legislate the successor OGRL and likely confirm it in the 2026 Budget documents, outweighs the chance that the documents omit any qualifying measure. | ||||
| 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? | 0.50 | 0.02 | -0.48 | bet 100 |
| Base rate: only 1 of 7 was accepted in roughly 26 years (~0.038/year); reaching 5 by year-end requires 3 more in 102 days, while the rules are subjective and the exact resolver is Plant using CMI/OpenAI announcements as proxies, with no scheduled catalyst known before close ([CMI](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/), [OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/)). | ||||
| Will @manifoldpolitics create 5 or more markets in October 2026 | 0.50 | 0.03 | -0.47 | bet 67 |
| Base rate is 347 lifetime markets but 0 since November 2024; the EST rule is clear, no mechanically relevant event occurs before the October 31 close (the U.S. election is November 3), and the exact resolver is Manifold’s official /v0/markets API filtered to ManifoldPolitics, so recent inactivity dominates despite the account’s historical bursts. | ||||
| UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA? | 0.35 | 0.82 | +0.47 | bet 40 |
| Base-rate prior 0.65 for a UK Budget implementing a previously announced, consulted-on reform; the rules require Budget-day confirmation beyond the consultation, but HM Treasury says the new First Time Buyer ISA will replace LISA and Parliament confirms the successor scheme, with the scheduled 28 October Budget/OBR forecast as the key event and HM Treasury’s Budget speech and documents as the exact resolver; no matching-rule witness market was found, so sentiment is discounted. | ||||
| Which College Football coaches will be fired before the end of the 2026 College Football Season? (Add Answers) :: Brent | 0.50 | 0.04 | -0.46 | bet 16 |
| Base rate is roughly 8–10% for a Power-conference FBS coach being fired in a season (with 2025 an unusually high-turnover outlier), but Venables is a current FBS head coach with a fresh six-year extension after a CFP appearance and a preseason top-10 OU team; the key calendar checkpoints are OU’s regular season through Nov. 28, SEC title game Dec. 5, and CFP through Jan. 25, while the exact resolver is OU’s official athletics announcement (with ESPN/CBS/Yahoo as permitted backups), so I estimate only 4% despite the difficult Georgia/Texas/SEC schedule. | ||||
| What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Rutgers defeats Howard | 0.50 | 0.96 | +0.46 | answer cap |
| Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures :: Will freedom of expression increase? [Higher V-De | 0.50 | 0.05 | -0.45 | bet 16 |
| Base rate: Germany’s historical V-Dem series shows 0 increases in 55 non-initial years; the rules are clear, the 2029 federal election is the key scheduled event, AfD entry by 2030 is roughly 30% given current polling and the firewall, and conditional on entry an increase by Y+3 is only about 15% because the specified index usually reflects media restrictions rather than liberalization; the exact resolver is V-Dem v16’s v2x_freexp_altinf series, with no matching witness market used. [V-Dem](https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/) [2029 election](https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2029.html) [historical series](https://github.com/vdeminstitute/demspaces/blob/main/create-data/output/dv-lists/v2x_freexp_altinf.csv) | ||||
| UK Autumn Budget 2026: will mayors get a new tax power or a share of a national tax? | 0.45 | 0.90 | +0.45 | bet 52 |
| The government has already committed to assigning mayors a share of named national income-tax receipts from 2028 and promised Budget confirmation, so the main residual risk is that the 28 October Treasury documents provide only a roadmap or consultation rather than a sufficiently definite measure. | ||||
| Will REAL MADRID beat ATLETICO MADRID today?? | 0.90 | 0.46 | -0.44 | bet 35 |
| Base rate is 3 Real wins in the last 10 La Liga derbies (30%), while current full-time odds imply about 46% after margin adjustment; the scheduled 16:15 Riyadh Air Metropolitano fixture is confirmed by LaLiga, and the exact resolver is its official score or Soccerway, with no material ambiguity. | ||||
| Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Ässät | 0.50 | 0.06 | -0.44 | answer cap |
| Japan vs India T20 cricket match | 0.07 | 0.50 | +0.43 | bet 18 |
| Historical form is Japan 10/16 (62.5%) versus India 26/39 (66.7%), but the rules define a percentage settlement rather than a binary YES condition, so the ambiguity dominates; the match is scheduled for 2026-09-22 at Sano, with Cricinfo as the resolver, while available winner odds are only a non-matching proxy. | ||||
| Will it snow in september in estonia? | 0.50 | 0.08 | -0.42 | bet 56 |
| Base rate is roughly 4 September first-snow years in about 60 years (~7%); rules make trace snow/sleet at any official station count, but the official forecast through September 25 shows rain/showers and lows mostly above freezing, with only September 26–30 uncertain; the resolver is Riigi Ilmateenistus observations or its October 2026 climate summary, and no matching witness market is available. | ||||
| 陈伯20号是否开播 | 0.50 | 0.08 | -0.42 | bet 56 |
| 基准率按其通常每日22:30开播估计约85%，但规则要求9月20日00:00–23:59 CST内正式开播且排除短暂测试；已知请假覆盖18–20日，唯一关键日历点是通常的9月20日22:30档，最终应以抖音官方直播历史（keyis153）为准，未找到规则完全匹配的独立见证市场，因此将叙事信息折扣后估计为8%。 | ||||
| When will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2026 | 0.06 | 0.48 | +0.42 | bet 68 |
| Base rate is 0/9 prior quarters with no SSI model announcement; the official resolver is SSI’s sparse [updates page](https://ssi.inc/updates), which has no scheduled Q4 event, while the NVIDIA compute partnership and unverified August rumor raise the estimate but the differing [Polymarket public-release market](https://polymarket.com/fr/event/ssi-public-model-released-by-20260810094604188) is only a loose proxy and the undefined meaning of “model” pulls toward 0.5. | ||||
| Holder Battle: YES vs NO | 0.50 | 0.90 | +0.40 | bet 100 |
| YES leads 20–7 holders, but seven days of trading and a conflicting displayed close date justify discounting the matching market price. | ||||
| On what days will I be productive in September? Starting Sep 20, an answer for each day until Nov 10 without leading 0s | 0.90 | 0.50 | -0.40 | bet 32 |
| No personal base-rate data or objective resolver is provided, and the broad rule that rest days count as productive makes YES and NO roughly equally likely. | ||||
| Which College Football coaches will be fired before the end of the 2026 College Football Season? (Add Answers) :: Bill O | 0.50 | 0.10 | -0.40 | answer cap |
| Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? | 0.49 | 0.11 | -0.39 | bet 51 |
| Historical cadence implies roughly an 8.5% remaining-month base rate, and the June Sonnet 5 launch plus September Fable/Mythos releases make another qualifying Sonnet launch unlikely. | ||||
| In part 99 of the "Eating at every chinese buffet until i get food poisoning", did mullet_review get Food Poisoning? | 0.50 | 0.12 | -0.38 | bet 49 |
| Base rate is 0 food-poisoning episodes in roughly the first 98 buffets; the rules require an explicit outcome in the Instagram video, and although raw chicken raises risk, the available Day 99 witness reports only concern and no illness, with no scheduled event before the 2026-09-20 close, so the exact resolver (@mullet_review’s Instagram post) most likely settles NO. | ||||
| Will the UK extend the National Living Wage to 20-year-olds from April 2027? | 0.40 | 0.78 | +0.38 | bet 36 |
| Base rate: the NLW age threshold has fallen twice since 2016 (about 20% of years), while the LPC proposed 20 in 2027; the rules are clear, the 28 October Budget and end-October LPC advice are the key calendar events, and the exact resolver is a GOV.UK/HMT announcement, with timing flexibility and youth-employment concerns keeping this below certainty. | ||||
| Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Timur Turlov / Viswanathan Anand | 0.25 | 0.62 | +0.37 | bet 9 |
| Base rate: continuity tickets won the last 2/2 FIDE presidential elections (100%, n=2), versus a 1/3 three-ticket baseline; the rules are clear, the scheduled 26 September Samarkand General Assembly is the key event, and Turlov–Anand is an officially valid ticket, with FIDE’s official election result as resolver and no matching market witness found. https://www.fide.com/2022-fide-general-assembly-list-of-decisions/ https://www.fide.com/three-presidential-tickets-submitted-to-fide-office-ahead-of-2026-elections/ | ||||
| US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 24 2026? | 0.48 | 0.12 | -0.36 | bet 100 |
| Base rate: AAA rose on 7 of the last 7 observed daily intervals, gaining 15.9¢ total (2.27¢/day); at $4.4786 on 9/21, YES requires a decline of at least 2.86¢ by 9/24, while the rules clearly mean AAA’s regular “Current Avg.” on its dated page; no mechanically relevant event occurs before today’s close (the EIA report is 9/23, after close), and the exact resolver is AAA Fuel Prices, with Nowflation only a proxy, so despite Iran/oil narratives I estimate 12%. | ||||
| who will win HSBT? :: NOHO A | 0.14 | 0.50 | +0.36 | bet 57 |
| Base rate: no identifiable HSBT field or historical win rate, so use a 50% uninformed prior; rules provide no resolution definition, no scheduled event or exact resolver is identifiable before close, and this ambiguity warrants staying at 0.5. | ||||
| Will Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 2026 | 0.49 | 0.14 | -0.35 | bet 46 |
| Base rate: one known defamation filing by a Mistral principal over roughly three years (≈33% annualized), implying about 10% over the 102 days remaining; the recent €3bn funding and Branco’s September Thinkerview criticism raise this to 14%, but Cédric O’s March loss and absence of any public threat reduce it, with no scheduled event identified, no matching witness-market prices, and resolution requiring an official French court filing corroborated by a major outlet or party announcement ([Cédric O case](https://windpress.info/it/press-release/1081826/communiqu-de-presse-cdric-o-dbout-de-ses-demandes-lencontre-de-bertrand-burgalat), [funding](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/08/mistral-raises-e3b-as-sovereign-ai-becomes-big-business/), [Thinkerview coverage](https://lesouv.fr/videos/juan-branco-sur-thinkerview-deux-heures-sur-les-failles-francaises/)). | ||||
| Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Artificial | 0.50 | 0.15 | -0.35 | answer cap |
| Will the Magic the Gathering movie make over 350 million at the global box office? | 0.50 | 0.15 | -0.35 | bet 44 |
| The film has credible Legendary/Hasbro backing and a director but no release date, while a new non-established fantasy adaptation clearing $350M is well above the broad wide-release base rate. | ||||
| Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EOY | 0.43 | 0.08 | -0.35 | bet 56 |
| Base rate: I estimate ~1% for an entrenched technical term to be globally displaced within 100 days; with no resolution rules or exact resolver, “replace” is materially ambiguous and pulls the estimate upward, but official terminology still uses “artificial intelligence” ([ISO](https://www.iso.org/standard/74296.html), [ITU](https://www.itu.int/rec/T-REC-L.Sup61-202506-I)), no scheduled event before December 31 mechanically changes this, and no matching witness market is available. | ||||
| UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated below CPI? | 0.24 | 0.57 | +0.33 | bet 17 |
| Historical base rate for a UK Budget announcing a working-age benefit rate cut or sub-CPI uprating is about 30%, but the existing LCWRA freeze and ongoing welfare-reform pressure raise this to 57%; the main ambiguity is whether 28 October HM Treasury Budget documents confirm that prior measure, with the Budget speech/documents as the exact resolver and no matched-witness market available. | ||||
| which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: gsmst hs | 0.50 | 0.18 | -0.32 | bet 10 |
| Base rate: GSMST qualified for nationals 0 of the last 3 seasons and ranked 7th–10th at state, versus typically two qualifying Division C teams; 2027 state rules are changing to two tiers with details pending, and the March–April state tournament before the April 11 close will be resolved by official GASO results, making ambiguity modestly increase uncertainty. | ||||
| When will a humanoid robot be able to juggle 5 bowling pins at once? :: Before 2031 | 0.12 | 0.44 | +0.32 | bet 51 |
| Base rate is 0 publicly documented humanoid-robot demonstrations meeting the exact five-bowling-pin, 50-throw, over-half-success criterion; current proxies show five-ball juggling on Barrett WAM arms and three-ball juggling on bimanual robots ([five-ball study](https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.16978), [three-ball study](https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.26800)), but bowling pins are harder, no scheduled event mechanically resolves it before 2031, no matching witness market is available, and the rules name no exact resolver beyond a market-creator judgment of a public demonstration, so ambiguity pulls the estimate toward 0.5. | ||||
| Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Gen. G | 0.06 | 0.36 | +0.30 | bet 56 |
| Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% per team; Gen.G is qualified as LCK first seed and recent matching-rule Polymarket prices cluster around 36–40%, which I discount slightly for thin liquidity, with Worlds scheduled October 15–November 14 and Riot’s LoL Esports result as the resolver. | ||||
| UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of 2027? | 0.25 | 0.55 | +0.30 | bet 19 |
| Base rate: the £2-or-lower national cap continued beyond its initial horizon in 1 of 2 prior comparable episodes (50%); the rules are clear, the cost-of-living narrative modestly supports continuation, the scheduled event is the 28 October 2026 Budget, and the exact resolver is HM Treasury’s Budget-day documents or speech (the current £2 cap is funded only through 2027) ([DfT announcement](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/2-bus-fares-from-january-2027), [HMT Budget date](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chancellor-letter-to-the-treasury-select-committee-tsc-budget-2026-date)); no matching related-market witness was identified. | ||||
| When will WeirdML be at ≥ 80% official score? :: Before May 2027 | 0.66 | 0.37 | -0.29 | model agrees |
| Base rate is 0/1 directly comparable WeirdML-v3 official-AUC frontiers at ≥80% (the broader raw-score history is 1/2 but not comparable); GPT-6 Astra is only 42%, and with no scheduled benchmark/model event before Apr 30, the substantial gap, public-release requirement, and possible rework make YES plausible but below even odds; resolver is the creator-maintained WeirdML v3 page and linked results JSON. | ||||
| When will WeirdML be at ≥ 80% official score? :: Before November 2026 | 0.50 | 0.21 | -0.29 | model agrees |
| A 37.8-point jump from the current 42.2% official score within about six weeks is far above the benchmark's observed improvement rate, though a major public model release or rework could plausibly produce it. | ||||
| What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Georgia defeats Oklahoma | 0.50 | 0.79 | +0.29 | model agrees |
| Georgia is a roughly 13.5-point home favorite in the scheduled Week 4 game, with market-implied win probability near 80–82%, modestly discounted for unspecified resolution rules. | ||||
| Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Wild Horse Nine | 0.50 | 0.79 | +0.29 | model agrees |
| Base rate: 10 Best Picture slots among roughly 25 serious contenders implies ~40%; the rules are clear and Wild Horse Nine’s Nov. 6 release is eligible, while strong Venice/Telluride/Toronto reception and current nomination forecasts support an upward revision, with Dec. 7 preliminary voting and Jan. 11–15 nominations voting as key calendar events; the resolver is the Academy’s Jan. 21, 2027 nominations announcement, and the available 84% nomination forecast is a proxy rather than the resolver, while winner markets (about 4–7%) answer a different question. | ||||
| Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations? | 0.72 | 0.43 | -0.29 | bet 100 |
| The Odyssey is the current breadth favorite, but the historical base rate is low and the ambiguous tie/counting rule plus strong unreleased competitors leave substantial upset risk. | ||||
| US airstrikes against Yemen in September? | 0.50 | 0.22 | -0.28 | bet 100 |
| Historical campaign-era base rate was roughly 13/20 months (65%) with U.S. strikes, but Saudi/Yemeni strikes do not count; current credible reporting says Washington is avoiding direct action and has contacted the Houthis, with no scheduled kinetic catalyst before September 30, so I estimate 22%, using AP/Reuters corroborated by CENTCOM as the resolver despite some ambiguity in “credible reporting.” | ||||
| Which charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2027? :: Helen Keller International | 0.50 | 0.78 | +0.28 | model agrees |
| Base rate is strong—Helen Keller Intl has remained a GiveWell Top Charity since 2017 (at least nine annual cycles); its 2025 grant and funding through 2027 support persistence, though cost-effectiveness swings, expanding research, and undefined resolution rules create ambiguity, with the likely resolver being GiveWell’s official year-end-2027 recommendations page and no known intervening scheduled event. | ||||
| On what days will I be productive in September? Starting Sep 20, an answer for each day until Nov 10 without leading 0s | 0.90 | 0.62 | -0.28 | model agrees |
| Using an estimated 70% productive-day base rate, the broad rule that rest days count raises the odds, but the subjective definition and unspecified resolver create enough ambiguity to pull the estimate toward 0.5. | ||||
| On what days will I be productive in September? Starting Sep 20, an answer for each day until Nov 10 without leading 0s | 0.90 | 0.62 | -0.28 | model agrees |
| Base rate is unavailable, so I use 0.50; the broad rule that rest days count and the $200 commitment device raise this modestly, with no mechanically relevant scheduled event or independent witness, while the user's own determination is an ambiguous resolver. | ||||
| which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: northview hs | 0.50 | 0.22 | -0.28 | model agrees |
| Assuming Science Olympiad, the recent base rate is 0/4 state top-two finishes (Northview placed 8th, 5th, 5th, and 9th in 2023–26); the 2027 GASO state tournament is before the Apr. 11 close and nationals are May 14–15, but unspecified rules and planned tier changes create substantial ambiguity, with official GASO results as resolver. | ||||
| Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: HPK | 0.50 | 0.22 | -0.28 | model agrees |
| Base rate is 3 of 17 teams = 17.6%; the rules make the bottom three after the regular season directly relegated, HPK’s recent 12th-place finish and weak early 2026–27 position modestly raise risk, the regular season ends March 23, 2027, and the exact resolver is Liiga’s official final standings, with no matching market witness identified ([format](https://hc.tps.fi/fi-fi/article/uutiset/liiga-tiedottaa-uusi-1410-mallinen-sarjamuoto-kaynnistyy-kaudella-202728/1573), [schedule](https://hc.tps.fi/fi-fi/article/uutiset/liigan-otteluohjelma-kaudelle-20262027-julkaistu/1814), [standings](https://liiga.fi/fi/tilastot/joukkuetilastot/kausi)). | ||||
| Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Pelicans | 0.50 | 0.22 | -0.28 | model agrees |
| Base rate is 3/17=17.6% per team (Pelicans were bottom-three in 1 of the last 2 seasons), and despite recent weakness the rules clearly make the official Liiga.fi final standings decisive after the scheduled regular-season finale on 2027-03-23; the transition format is unprecedented and no matching witness market was found, so I modestly raise the base rate to 22%. | ||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 15:04 | v89 | Will the term Super Intelligents replace Artificial intelligence before EOY | NO 55 | open -0 | model 0.08; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.35 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate ~1% for an entrenched technical term to be globally displaced within 100 days; with no resolution rules or exact resolver, “replace” is materially ambiguous and pulls the estimate upward, but official terminology still uses “artificial intelligence” ([ISO](https://www.iso.org/standard/74296.html), [ITU](https://www.itu.int/rec/T-REC-L.Sup61-202506-I)), no scheduled event before December 31 mechanically changes this, and no matching witness market is available. |
| 09-22 14:49 | v89 | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a £2 bus fare cap be funded beyond the end of 2027? | YES 19 | open +0 | model 0.55; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs market 0.25 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate: the £2-or-lower national cap continued beyond its initial horizon in 1 of 2 prior comparable episodes (50%); the rules are clear, the cost-of-living narrative modestly supports continuation, the scheduled event is the 28 October 2026 Budget, and the exact resolver is HM Treasury’s Budget-day documents or speech (the current £2 cap is funded only through 2027) ([DfT announcement](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/2-bus-fares-from-january-2027), [HMT Budget date](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/chancellor-letter-to-the-treasury-select-committee-tsc-budget-2026-date)); no matching related-market witness was identified. |
| 09-22 14:48 | v89 | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the Energy Profits Levy be raised or extended? | YES 42 | open -0 | model 0.84; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.49 >= 0.2): The 80% historical modification rate, combined with the government’s existing commitment to legislate the successor OGRL and likely confirm it in the 2026 Budget documents, outweighs the chance that the documents omit any qualifying measure. |
| 09-22 14:47 | v89 | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will a new first-time buyer ISA replace the Lifetime ISA? | YES 40 | open -0 | model 0.82; edge +0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.47 >= 0.2): Base-rate prior 0.65 for a UK Budget implementing a previously announced, consulted-on reform; the rules require Budget-day confirmation beyond the consultation, but HM Treasury says the new First Time Buyer ISA will replace LISA and Parliament confirms the successor scheme, with the scheduled 28 October Budget/OBR forecast as the key event and HM Treasury’s Budget speech and documents as the exact resolver; no matching-rule witness market was found, so sentiment is discounted. |
| 09-22 14:46 | v89 | Will the UK extend the National Living Wage to 20-year-olds from April 2027? | YES 36 | open +0 | model 0.78; edge +0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.40 (edge +0.38 >= 0.2): Base rate: the NLW age threshold has fallen twice since 2016 (about 20% of years), while the LPC proposed 20 in 2027; the rules are clear, the 28 October Budget and end-October LPC advice are the key calendar events, and the exact resolver is a GOV.UK/HMT announcement, with timing flexibility and youth-employment concerns keeping this below certainty. |
| 09-22 14:40 | v89 | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will any working-age benefit be cut or uprated below CPI? | YES 17 | open -0 | model 0.57; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs market 0.24 (edge +0.33 >= 0.2): Historical base rate for a UK Budget announcing a working-age benefit rate cut or sub-CPI uprating is about 30%, but the existing LCWRA freeze and ongoing welfare-reform pressure raise this to 57%; the main ambiguity is whether 28 October HM Treasury Budget documents confirm that prior measure, with the Budget speech/documents as the exact resolver and no matched-witness market available. |
| 09-22 14:36 | v89 | UK Autumn Budget 2026: will dividend, savings or property income tax rates rise further? | YES 13 | open -0 | model 0.44; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.44 vs market 0.22 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 of the last 2 UK Autumn Budgets (50%) raised at least one of these rates; the rules are clear and require a rate increase beyond Budget 2025, while current tax-raising pressure and reports of dividend-tax briefings lift the odds despite narrative risk; no decisive scheduled event precedes the 28 October close, and the exact resolver is the Chancellor's speech plus HM Treasury's Budget-day documents, with no matching related-market witness found. |
| 09-22 13:55 | v89 | Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Bilibili Gaming | YES 34 | open -9 | model 0.23; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): BLG is a genuine top contender and already qualified, but the 19-team base rate is only 5.3%, several LCK/LPL teams appear comparably strong, and thin proxy-market prices support roughly a low-to-mid-20% chance. |
| 09-22 13:55 | v89 | Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Hanwha Life Esports | YES 29 | open -6 | model 0.20; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% per team; HLE is qualified, rules are clear, sentiment is outweighed by its MSI win but recent 3-1 loss to Gen.G, Worlds runs Oct 15–Nov 14 with the final Nov 14, Riot’s official tournament result is the resolver, and the thin Polymarket witness was 18.5% while Riot’s Sep 20 ranking placed HLE #1, so I estimate 20% [Riot](https://lolesports.com/en-US/news/msi-and-worlds-updates) [GPR](https://lolesports.com/es-MX/gpr/2026/current) [market](https://riftodds.lol/blog/lck-worlds-2026-odds). |
| 09-22 13:55 | v89 | Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: G2 Esports | YES 25 | open -4 | model 0.18; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is 5.3% from 19 equal-probability teams, while G2 has won 0 of the last 10 Worlds and LCK/LPL teams won all 10; rules are clear, Worlds runs Oct 15–Nov 14 with no other scheduled event mechanically changing the outcome, Riot’s LoL Esports site is the resolver, and the matching-rule Paridesk market quotes G2 at 22% on only $199 volume, so I discount it slightly. |
| 09-22 13:55 | v89 | Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? :: Gen. G | YES 56 | open -21 | model 0.36; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/19 = 5.3% per team; Gen.G is qualified as LCK first seed and recent matching-rule Polymarket prices cluster around 36–40%, which I discount slightly for thin liquidity, with Worlds scheduled October 15–November 14 and Riot’s LoL Esports result as the resolver. |
| 09-21 14:13 | v89 | Will the movie "The Legend of Zelda" (2027) gross more than a billion dollars at the worldwide box office? | NO 22 | open +8 | model 0.30; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate: only 2–3 films per year recently clear $1B worldwide (roughly 0.1% of all releases, but about 10–20% of major global event films); Zelda’s exceptional Nintendo IP and April 30, 2027 worldwide release support the upper end, while its untested live-action format and lack of established stars pull it down, with The Numbers as resolver and Box Office Mojo only as backup. |
| 09-21 10:11 | v89 | Will The Odyssey receive the most Oscar nominations? | NO 100 | open -28 | model 0.43; edge -0.29; luna-medium price-blind says 0.43 vs market 0.72 (edge -0.29 >= 0.2): The Odyssey is the current breadth favorite, but the historical base rate is low and the ambiguous tie/counting rule plus strong unreleased competitors leave substantial upset risk. |
| 09-21 09:54 | v89 | Japan vs India T20 cricket match | YES 18 | settled +50 | model 0.50; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs market 0.07 (edge +0.43 >= 0.2): Historical form is Japan 10/16 (62.5%) versus India 26/39 (66.7%), but the rules define a percentage settlement rather than a binary YES condition, so the ambiguity dominates; the match is scheduled for 2026-09-22 at Sano, with Cricinfo as the resolver, while available winner odds are only a non-matching proxy. |
| 09-21 08:50 | v89 | US Average Gas Price Is $4.3500 or more on September 28 2026? | YES 100 | open +67 | model 0.81; edge +0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.81 vs market 0.55 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): Base-rate proxy: AAA rose $0.1623 over the past week and $0.3386 since September 3; the current $4.4786 is $0.1286 above threshold, while the resolver is explicitly AAA’s September 28 regular-gas current average ([AAA](https://gasprices.aaa.com/)); seasonal easing is a counterforce, but high crude and the September 23 EIA petroleum report favor YES. |
| 09-21 08:50 | v89 | US Average Gas Price Is $4.4500 or more on September 24 2026? | NO 100 | open -79 | model 0.12; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.48 (edge -0.36 >= 0.2): Base rate: AAA rose on 7 of the last 7 observed daily intervals, gaining 15.9¢ total (2.27¢/day); at $4.4786 on 9/21, YES requires a decline of at least 2.86¢ by 9/24, while the rules clearly mean AAA’s regular “Current Avg.” on its dated page; no mechanically relevant event occurs before today’s close (the EIA report is 9/23, after close), and the exact resolver is AAA Fuel Prices, with Nowflation only a proxy, so despite Iran/oil narratives I estimate 12%. |
| 09-21 08:30 | v89 | Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: JYP | NO 55 | open +22 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): JYP’s 5–0 start and strong preseason projection make relegation far less likely than the 3/17 structural base rate, with the official Liiga standings as the resolver. |
| 09-21 08:30 | v89 | Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Tappara | NO 66 | open +24 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3/17=17.6% for a random team, but Tappara has 0 relegations in 51 Liiga seasons and Veikkaus rated it the 2026–27 title favorite at 28.3%; the relevant calendar is the regular season through March 2027, resolved by Liiga’s official standings, with minor rule ambiguity from earlier relegation-format proposals lowering confidence.[Veikkaus](https://api.sttinfo.fi/tiedote/72268094/veikkauksen-pitkaveto-kertoimet-alkavan-liiga-kauden-mestaruus-osuu-tampereelle-yli-38-prosentin-todennakoisyydella?publisherId=54808465) [Liiga standings](https://liiga.fi/en/schedule?joukkue=tappara) |
| 09-21 08:30 | v89 | Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: Ilves | NO 54 | open +23 | model 0.01; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3/17 = 17.6%; rules clearly relegate the regular-season bottom three, with the official Liiga standings resolving it after the scheduled final round on 2027-03-23; Ilves’ five straight top-four finishes and Veikkaus’ 10.5% title probability (a strength proxy, not the resolver) justify a large downward adjustment, so I estimate 1.5%. |
| 09-21 08:30 | v89 | Which three teams are relegated from Finnish Hockey League in 2027? :: KooKoo | NO 62 | open -19 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3/17 = 17.6% per team, but KooKoo’s 0 points after 2 of 64 games is highly volatile and preseason witnesses rank them 1st–4th rather than among likely relegation candidates; the rules clearly mean the official [Liiga standings](https://www.liiga.fi/fi/ohjelma?kausi=2026-2027&sarja=runkosarja), with the regular season ending March 23, 2027 before the March 31 close, so I estimate only 4%. |
| 09-21 07:06 | v89 | Will the Magic the Gathering movie make over 350 million at the global box office? | NO 42 | open +5 | model 0.15; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.2): The film has credible Legendary/Hasbro backing and a director but no release date, while a new non-established fantasy adaptation clearing $350M is well above the broad wide-release base rate. |
| 09-21 04:51 | v89 | which teams will qual for nationals from GA this year :: gsmst hs | NO 10 | open +5 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Base rate: GSMST qualified for nationals 0 of the last 3 seasons and ranked 7th–10th at state, versus typically two qualifying Division C teams; 2027 state rules are changing to two tiers with details pending, and the March–April state tournament before the April 11 close will be resolved by official GASO results, making ambiguity modestly increase uncertainty. |
| 09-21 01:27 | v89 | Will xAI/Grok be on the Felonybench scoreboard by end of 2026? | NO 100 | open +0 | model 0.25; edge -0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.25 vs market 0.49 (edge -0.24 >= 0.2): xAI/Grok is currently absent from the official Felony Bench scoreboard, whose recent base rate is 17 qualifying incidents across other companies in about 20 days, and no scheduled event before December 31 mechanically raises the odds; ambiguity over whether any xAI incident counts pulls modestly toward 0.5. |
| 09-21 01:06 | v89 | Will @lolipop start the call at 7:00 pm tonight or nah? | NO 22 | settled -22 | model 0.30; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate for an informal call starting exactly on time is about 30%; no resolution rules, scheduled-event evidence, exact resolver, or matching witness market are provided. |
| 09-20 23:12 | v89 | Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: Caroline Elliott | YES 19 | open -1 | model 0.26; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.26 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Findlay’s resignation makes a permanent succession likely before January 2028, and Elliott’s near-win gives her a meaningful edge, but party fragmentation and stronger alternative candidates keep her well below even odds. |
| 09-20 23:12 | v89 | Who will be the next (non-interim) leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia? :: James Moore | NO 100 | open +1 | model 0.01; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.14 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: roughly 3 permanent BC Conservative leadership changes in 10 years (~30% annually); rules are clear, but James Moore declined the 2026 race and backed Iain Black, while the Sep. 26 Abbotsford–Mission byelection is the only scheduled near-term event and the Oct. 21, 2028 general election is beyond close, so official Conservative Party announcements or consensus media are the resolver and the evidence strongly favors other candidates. |
| 09-20 22:29 | v89 | Will the 2027 presidential French elections be decided at the first round? | NO 24 | open +4 | model 0.01; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.21 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 0/11 direct French presidential elections (0%), the rules require >50% in round one, current polling is far below that threshold, the scheduled April 18, 2027 first round is the key calendar event, and the exact resolver is Interior Ministry results/Constitutional Council proclamations; related markets do not match this specific resolution criterion. [Interior Ministry](https://www.elections.interieur.gouv.fr/scrutins/lelection-presidentielle) |
| 09-20 22:08 | v89 | Will OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026? | YES 22 | open +2 | model 0.62; edge +0.27; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.27 >= 0.2): Base rate is 1 of 7 Millennium Problems solved over roughly 26 years (~0.5% per problem-year), but OpenAI's official claim of substantial progress on another problem materially raises the prior; no scheduled event is known, the exact resolver is OpenAI's official channels, and the related Polymarket 46% OpenAI-by-2027 quote is only a mismatched, longer-horizon witness. |
| 09-20 21:22 | v89 | When will SSI announce a model? :: Q4 2026 | YES 25 | open +14 | model 0.48; edge +0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.48 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.42 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0/9 prior quarters with no SSI model announcement; the official resolver is SSI’s sparse [updates page](https://ssi.inc/updates), which has no scheduled Q4 event, while the NVIDIA compute partnership and unverified August rumor raise the estimate but the differing [Polymarket public-release market](https://polymarket.com/fr/event/ssi-public-model-released-by-20260810094604188) is only a loose proxy and the undefined meaning of “model” pulls toward 0.5. |
| 09-20 21:22 | v89 | When will SSI announce a model? :: Later | YES 35 | open -25 | model 0.43; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.43 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.23 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0 official model announcements in roughly 2.25 years; under the stated rules the resolver is SSI’s updates page (https://ssi.inc/updates), no relevant scheduled event is known before the 2030 close, and comparable release markets use materially different rules, so I estimate 43% for “Later” (interpreted as after the listed quarters). |
| 09-20 21:22 | v89 | When will SSI announce a model? :: Q1 2027 | YES 30 | open +15 | model 0.23; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0 model announcements in roughly 27 months; SSI’s rules leave “model” and announcement scope ambiguous, while its NVIDIA scaling partnership supports some increased hazard, no relevant scheduled event is public before March 31, 2027, the exact resolver is SSI’s official [updates page](https://ssi.inc/updates), and the [Polymarket witness](https://polymarket.com/event/ssi-public-model-released-by-20260810094604188) is only a discounted proxy because it requires public model access. |
| 09-20 21:14 | v89 | Will there be a Scorigami in week 3 of the 2025-26 NFL season? | NO 73 | open -2 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 70 Scorigamis in 2,746 recent NFL games (2.55%, roughly 34% for a 16-game week); the rules point to nflscorigami.com, whose Week 3 2025 result is corroborated as none by the [2025 tracker](https://primetimesportstalk.com/2025-nfl-scorigami-tracker/) and [official NFL scores](https://www.nfl.com/scores/2025/week-3), with no future calendar event relevant because Week 3 ended September 22, 2025. |
| 09-20 20:05 | v89 | Holder Battle: YES vs NO | YES 100 | open -11 | model 0.90; edge +0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.40 >= 0.2): YES leads 20–7 holders, but seven days of trading and a conflicting displayed close date justify discounting the matching market price. |
| 09-20 19:52 | v89 | 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? | NO 100 | open +74 | model 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.2): Base rate: only 1 of 7 was accepted in roughly 26 years (~0.038/year); reaching 5 by year-end requires 3 more in 102 days, while the rules are subjective and the exact resolver is Plant using CMI/OpenAI announcements as proxies, with no scheduled catalyst known before close ([CMI](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/), [OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/)). |
| 09-20 19:18 | v89 | Will Mistral AI and/or its investors sue Juan Branco for Defamation in 2026 | NO 46 | open +0 | model 0.14; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.2): Base rate: one known defamation filing by a Mistral principal over roughly three years (≈33% annualized), implying about 10% over the 102 days remaining; the recent €3bn funding and Branco’s September Thinkerview criticism raise this to 14%, but Cédric O’s March loss and absence of any public threat reduce it, with no scheduled event identified, no matching witness-market prices, and resolution requiring an official French court filing corroborated by a major outlet or party announcement ([Cédric O case](https://windpress.info/it/press-release/1081826/communiqu-de-presse-cdric-o-dbout-de-ses-demandes-lencontre-de-bertrand-burgalat), [funding](https://techcrunch.com/2026/09/08/mistral-raises-e3b-as-sovereign-ai-becomes-big-business/), [Thinkerview coverage](https://lesouv.fr/videos/juan-branco-sur-thinkerview-deux-heures-sur-les-failles-francaises/)). |
| 09-20 18:13 | v89 | Duskbloods release date? :: September | NO 100 | open +7 | model 0.02; edge -0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.20 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0/5 recent major FromSoftware releases in September; with no mention in Nintendo’s September 9 Direct, only TGS (Sep 17–21) remaining as a near-term event, and the official Nintendo/FromSoftware pages still saying only “2026,” September is very unlikely despite possible surprise timing. |
| 09-20 18:13 | v89 | Duskbloods release date? :: Not in 2026 | YES 31 | open +10 | model 0.36; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Base rate: ~30% of major games still assigned to the current year but undated in late September slip beyond year-end; the rules clearly mean an official 2026 release, while the June and September Directs gave no date, the scheduled Dec. 10 Game Awards is the main remaining announcement window, and Nintendo’s official product page plus FromSoftware’s official site still say 2026, so I raise delay risk modestly to 36%. |
| 09-20 18:00 | v89 | Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Primetime | YES 100 | open -8 | model 0.99; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): Base rate is 5/5 recent Oscars with exactly 10 Best Picture nominees; the 99th Oscars rules explicitly require ten, nominations are scheduled for January 21, 2027, and the exact resolver is the Academy’s official announcement, with only a small residual risk from the Academy’s stated ability to change rules ([rules](https://www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/2026-05/99th%20Best%20Picture%20Rules.pdf), [schedule](https://press.oscars.org/news/academy-and-abc-announce-show-dates-99th-and-100th-oscarsr)). |
| 09-20 18:00 | v89 | Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: La Bola Negra | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.91; edge +0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.91 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.41 >= 0.3): La Bola Negra has an unusually strong TIFF/Cannes/Netflix awards profile, and the comparable TIFF winner base rate is about 93%, warranting a modest discount for early-season uncertainty and the rules-date inconsistency. |
| 09-20 18:00 | v89 | Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: Michael | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Michael is eligible and has commercial visibility, but it sits outside most current Best Picture top tens, faces mixed critical reception, and has only a marginal path into one of ten slots. |
| 09-20 18:00 | v89 | Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars) :: The Odyssey | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.88; edge +0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.38 >= 0.3): Base rate: a random major 2026 release faces roughly 10% odds with 10 Best Picture slots, but top-tier consensus frontrunners historically convert at about 80–90%; The Odyssey is the clear frontrunner, with Kalshi previously pricing its nomination near 89%, and no rules ambiguity lowers confidence. The decisive calendar event is the Academy’s nominations announcement on January 21, 2027, with the official resolver being the Academy’s Oscars nominations page; I estimate 88% after allowing for late-season competitors and stale-market basis. [Academy](https://press.oscars.org/news/academy-and-abc-announce-show-dates-99th-and-100th-oscarsr) [Kalshi coverage](https://www.comingsoon.net/movies/features/2122664-2027-oscars-predictions-early-oscar-nominations-nominees/xwp_curated_content) |
| 09-20 16:56 | v89 | Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Timur Turlov / Viswanathan Anand | YES 9 | open +16 | model 0.62; edge +0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): Base rate: continuity tickets won the last 2/2 FIDE presidential elections (100%, n=2), versus a 1/3 three-ticket baseline; the rules are clear, the scheduled 26 September Samarkand General Assembly is the key event, and Turlov–Anand is an officially valid ticket, with FIDE’s official election result as resolver and no matching market witness found. https://www.fide.com/2022-fide-general-assembly-list-of-decisions/ https://www.fide.com/three-presidential-tickets-submitted-to-fide-office-ahead-of-2026-elections/ |
| 09-20 16:56 | v89 | Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: None of the above | NO 7 | open +1 | model 0.11; edge -0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0/2 recent FIDE presidential elections resolving NOTA; the rules provide a runoff producing a winner, three tickets are valid, and the scheduled 26 September General Assembly is still on, but FIDE’s visa warning creates meaningful cancellation or delay risk; the resolver is FIDE’s official election result, with no matching related-market price found. |
| 09-20 16:56 | v89 | Which ticket will win the 2026 FIDE presidential election? :: Jan Henric Buettner / Malcolm Pein | NO 3 | open +1 | model 0.14; edge -0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/3 with three valid tickets; Buettner–Pein has only eight published nominating federations versus 9+ for Turlov–Anand and 12+ for Rosenstein–Tang, with the outcome mechanically settled at the FIDE General Assembly on 26 September by the official FIDE election announcement/result, so I estimate 14%. |
| 09-20 16:01 | v89 | who will win HSBT? :: NOHO A | YES 57 | settled -57 | model 0.50; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.36 >= 0.1): Base rate: no identifiable HSBT field or historical win rate, so use a 50% uninformed prior; rules provide no resolution definition, no scheduled event or exact resolver is identifiable before close, and this ambiguity warrants staying at 0.5. |
| 09-20 16:01 | v89 | who will win HSBT? :: BRIDGELAND | YES 57 | settled -57 | model 0.50; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.36 >= 0.1): The contest and resolution source are unspecified, so despite Bridgeland’s 2–1 football record, the appropriate estimate is the 50% base rate. |
| 09-20 16:01 | v89 | who will win HSBT? :: Iolani | YES 57 | settled -57 | model 0.50; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.36 >= 0.1): Base rate is roughly 6–12% for an individual team in an 8–16-team tournament, but the rules provide no field, event definition, or resolver; the official Iolani athletics calendar lists no HSBT before the September 22 close, so ambiguity dominates and pulls this to 0.50. |
| 09-20 16:01 | v89 | who will win HSBT? :: Outstanding Orangutangs | YES 57 | settled -57 | model 0.50; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.36 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0.50 absent contestant counts; rules, resolver, calendar event, and matching witness markets are unavailable, so ambiguity warrants staying at 0.50. |
| 09-20 16:00 | v89 | Will a new Claude Sonnet model be released in September 2026? | NO 51 | open -22 | model 0.11; edge -0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.39 >= 0.2): Historical cadence implies roughly an 8.5% remaining-month base rate, and the June Sonnet 5 launch plus September Fable/Mythos releases make another qualifying Sonnet launch unlikely. |
| 09-20 13:46 | v89 | Will a non-hyperlinear group be proved this month? | NO 69 | open -59 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 known valid non-hyperlinear groups over roughly two decades; current references still describe existence as open, the rules require a September proof plus later expert validation, no scheduled event or matching witness is evident, and no exact resolver beyond mathematical-community consensus is specified. |
| 09-20 12:41 | v89 | Will REAL MADRID beat ATLETICO MADRID today?? | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.46; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.46 vs market 0.90 (edge -0.44 >= 0.2): Base rate is 3 Real wins in the last 10 La Liga derbies (30%), while current full-time odds imply about 46% after margin adjustment; the scheduled 16:15 Riyadh Air Metropolitano fixture is confirmed by LaLiga, and the exact resolver is its official score or Soccerway, with no material ambiguity. |
| 09-20 11:09 | v89 | 陈伯20号是否开播 | NO 56 | settled +42 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): 基准率按其通常每日22:30开播估计约85%，但规则要求9月20日00:00–23:59 CST内正式开播且排除短暂测试；已知请假覆盖18–20日，唯一关键日历点是通常的9月20日22:30档，最终应以抖音官方直播历史（keyis153）为准，未找到规则完全匹配的独立见证市场，因此将叙事信息折扣后估计为8%。 |
| 09-20 07:57 | v89 | Will it snow in september in estonia? | NO 56 | open +27 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): Base rate is roughly 4 September first-snow years in about 60 years (~7%); rules make trace snow/sleet at any official station count, but the official forecast through September 25 shows rain/showers and lows mostly above freezing, with only September 26–30 uncertain; the resolver is Riigi Ilmateenistus observations or its October 2026 climate summary, and no matching witness market is available. |
| 09-20 07:40 | v89 | Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures :: Will real wages increase? [Higher annua | NO 11 | open -3 | model 0.15; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.3): Base rate: Germany’s four-year real-wage index comparison was positive in 10 of 14 historical windows (71%); I estimate a 22% chance of an AfD-led federal coalition by the scheduled 2029 Bundestag election, and about 70% conditional probability of higher real wages, yielding ~15%, with the exact resolver being Destatis table 62361-0020 and current AfD polling only a proxy ([Destatis](https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Arbeit/Verdienste/Realloehne-Nettoverdienste/Tabellen/liste-reallohnindex.html), [Bundestag calendar](https://www.bundestag.de/parlament/wahlen/wahltermine), [current reporting](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/09/07/far-right-achieves-historic-result-in-germany-s-saxony-anhalt-regional-elections_6757237_4.html)). |
| 09-20 07:40 | v89 | Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures :: Will real GDP increase? [Higher inflati | YES 11 | open -0 | model 0.84; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.34 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 30/31 (97%) for Germany’s historical four-year real-GDP increases; the rules are clear, the 2029 spring Bundestag election is the main scheduled gateway to Y, weak-growth/demographic and AfD-policy risks reduce—but do not overturn—the strong rate, and the exact resolver is Destatis GENESIS table 81000-0001 (with IMF projections as a proxy and no matching witness markets used). |
| 09-20 07:40 | v89 | Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures :: Will freedom of expression increase? [H | NO 15 | open -8 | model 0.05; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Base rate: Germany’s historical V-Dem series shows 0 increases in 55 non-initial years; the rules are clear, the 2029 federal election is the key scheduled event, AfD entry by 2030 is roughly 30% given current polling and the firewall, and conditional on entry an increase by Y+3 is only about 15% because the specified index usually reflects media restrictions rather than liberalization; the exact resolver is V-Dem v16’s v2x_freexp_altinf series, with no matching witness market used. [V-Dem](https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/) [2029 election](https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2029.html) [historical series](https://github.com/vdeminstitute/demspaces/blob/main/create-data/output/dv-lists/v2x_freexp_altinf.csv) |
| 09-20 07:40 | v89 | Germany after the AfD enters federal government: objective measures :: Will greenhouse-gas emissions decrease? | YES 12 | open -3 | model 0.88; edge +0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.88 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.38 >= 0.3): Conditional on AfD-led entry, the historical base rate is 30/31 four-year UBA endpoint comparisons showing declines (and 24/34 annual declines), while EU climate policy and renewable buildout support continued structural reductions despite AfD policy risk; the rules are clear, the key scheduled event is the spring 2029 Bundestag election, and the exact resolver is the UBA National Greenhouse Gas Inventory/DataCube excluding LULUCF. |
| 09-20 07:07 | v89 | What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Louisiana defeats Wake Forest | NO 15 | open -0 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate: 0% because no Louisiana–Wake Forest game is scheduled; during Week 4 (Sep. 26), Louisiana plays Charlotte and Wake Forest plays Louisville, with those official schedules as the resolver, so YES would require a schedule/data error ([Louisiana](https://ragincajuns.com/sports/football/schedule/2026?grid=true), [ACC](https://theacc.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=4611)). |
| 09-20 07:07 | v89 | What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Pittsburgh defeats Bucknell | YES 17 | open +12 | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): Pitt’s 20-1 historical FCS record, current 3-0 home start versus Bucknell’s 1-3 record, and the scheduled home game imply about a 98.5% chance, discounted slightly for unspecified resolution rules. |
| 09-20 07:07 | v89 | What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Florida State defeats Central A | YES 17 | open +12 | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): FBS teams win about 95% of recent FBS–FCS games, while Florida State is a major home favorite with a scheduled Week 4 game and no meaningful ambiguity beyond unspecified resolution rules. |
| 09-20 07:07 | v89 | What results will happen during Week 4 of the 2026 College Football Season? :: Texas Tech defeats Sam Houston | YES 17 | open +12 | model 0.97; edge +0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.97 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.47 >= 0.3): Texas Tech is a large home favorite with a 2–0 head-to-head record, 3–0 current record, and matching prediction-market proxy near 98%; the Sep. 26 official game is the scheduled resolving event. |
| 09-20 04:07 | v89 | US airstrikes against Yemen in September? | NO 100 | open +42 | model 0.22; edge -0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.28 >= 0.2): Historical campaign-era base rate was roughly 13/20 months (65%) with U.S. strikes, but Saudi/Yemeni strikes do not count; current credible reporting says Washington is avoiding direct action and has contacted the Houthis, with no scheduled kinetic catalyst before September 30, so I estimate 22%, using AP/Reuters corroborated by CENTCOM as the resolver despite some ambiguity in “credible reporting.” |
| 09-20 02:12 | v89 | Escalation of conflict in the Middle East before October? | YES 22 | open -7 | model 0.67; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.67 vs market 0.45 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: roughly 30% for a qualifying escalation in an 11-day window, but the active seven-month war and recent Saudi-Houthi widening raise this to 67%; the rules’ subjective “consensus escalation” and creator-discretion clauses pull toward 0.5, while UN General Assembly high-level week on September 22–29 and expected U.S.-Gulf talks are scheduled catalysts, with Reuters/AP/BBC reports as the exact resolver and no matching market witness found. |
| 09-20 01:34 | v89 | Which College Football coaches will be fired before the end of the 2026 College Football Season? (Add Answers) | NO 12 | open +2 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 8–10% for a Power-conference FBS coach being fired in a season (with 2025 an unusually high-turnover outlier), but Venables is a current FBS head coach with a fresh six-year extension after a CFP appearance and a preseason top-10 OU team; the key calendar checkpoints are OU’s regular season through Nov. 28, SEC title game Dec. 5, and CFP through Jan. 25, while the exact resolver is OU’s official athletics announcement (with ESPN/CBS/Yahoo as permitted backups), so I estimate only 4% despite the difficult Georgia/Texas/SEC schedule. |
| 09-20 01:34 | v89 | Which College Football coaches will be fired before the end of the 2026 College Football Season? (Add Answers) | NO 12 | open +6 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 5% for a first-year Power-conference coach being fired by season end; Whittingham is officially Michigan’s 2026 head coach, has no reported dismissal pressure, and the relevant scheduled events run through the Dec. 5 conference championship, CFP games, and Jan. 25 title game, with Michigan athletics releases or major outlets as the resolver.【turn2view0】【turn2view1】【turn2view3】 |
| 09-20 01:34 | v89 | Which College Football coaches will be fired before the end of the 2026 College Football Season? (Add Answers) | NO 10 | open +0 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 9% (12 fired FBS head coaches among roughly 133 programs in 2025); Chadwell remains a 1-1 FBS head coach after Liberty retained him following 2025's 4-8 season, and the remaining scheduled games run through Nov. 28 with the CUSA title game Dec. 4, while the resolver is Liberty Athletics or major reports, so I discount the elevated sector-wide firing rate for this relatively established coach. |
| 09-20 01:34 | v89 | Which College Football coaches will be fired before the end of the 2026 College Football Season? (Add Answers) | NO 10 | open +0 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 8 firings per 134 FBS jobs (~6%) annually; Dell McGee is a valid Georgia State FBS head coach entering year three, and his 2026 2-0 start lowers the risk despite a poor 2025, with the 2026 season and Jan. 25, 2027 championship deadline still ahead; resolution would rely on Georgia State Athletics or major outlets, and no contrary witness is available. https://georgiastatesports.com/news/2026/8/31/football-kicks-off-2026-season-hosting-nca-t.aspx https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/dell-mcgee-2.html https://collegefootballplayoff.com/news/2026/6/1/26-27-broadcast-sked |
| 09-20 00:20 | v89 | Will any Millenium Problem in Biology be solved by EoY 2027? | NO 100 | open +12 | model 0.24; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 of 7 Clay Millennium Problems solved over roughly 26 years (~0.55% per problem-year); the biology catalogue lists 12 unusually difficult targets, some more tractable, but its rules lack an adjudicator and distinguish partial success inconsistently, no scheduled resolving event or matching witness market exists before 2027-12-31, and the exact resolver appears to be the catalogue at https://millenniumproblems.bio/ itself, so I modestly raise the base rate but discount for ambiguity and set 24%. |
| 09-19 22:41 | v89 | Andrada TT in X argentina before 20 September | YES 8 | settled +2 | model 0.94; edge +0.68; luna-medium price-blind says 0.94 vs market 0.26 (edge +0.68 >= 0.2): Base rate is roughly 1–5% for an arbitrary Argentine footballer to trend on X in a day, rising to about 25–40% after a major River goal or senior call-up; the rules explicitly accept credible media, and Prensa X reports Andrada trending while TN corroborates the September 19 call-up, though this remains a proxy for the exact X Argentina TT list and creator acceptance is mildly ambiguous: [Prensa X](https://www.prensax.com/noticia/tendencia-andrada-2026-09-12), [TN](https://tn.com.ar/deportes/futbol/2026/09/19/lionel-scaloni-sumo-a-nueve-futbolistas-a-la-lista-de-convocados-para-los-proximos-amistosos-de-la-seleccion-argentina/). |
69 trades, 2,795 staked, realised -157, open +378 if held / +108 if sold, 4 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 234
answers across 198 markets and the module acted on
50 of them (21%). The journal holds
69 trades for 2,795 mana. 8 of them settled for -157.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 16:31Z.