mc‑other

module 1.0 · v88 ← trader

When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.

A bet on Other also covers any answer added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.

The slice it fades

Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt? :: Otherbet 15 mana · v88 · open -4
the named answers“other” at 0.33 → worth about 0.12

Where candidates died · 100 markets judged

80not a live multi-choiceresolved, closed, or not multiple-choice
14someone got there firstthe answers were traded before we arrived
5blocked topic or too far outa category with no usable history, or closing past the cap
1list still openanyone can add answers, so Other is not leftover - it is 'the winner is not listed yet'

The book · v88

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-06 19:32v88Next Ministerpräsident of Sachsen-Anhalt? :: OtherNO 15open -4sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.33 -> target 0.12

1 trade, 15 staked, realised +0, open -4 if held / -4 if sold.

1 catch-alls faded for 15 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. This module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.