Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Can the son do more push-ups than the father? | 0.44 | 0.45 | +0.01 | model agrees |
| Base-rate proxy is about 40% for an injured person initially below a healthy comparator to surpass them within a year; rehabilitation favors the son, but unclear push-up standards, no scheduled catalyst, and no independent resolver make the rules ambiguous and pull the estimate toward 0.5. | ||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 15:36 | v88 | Which charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2027? :: Against Malaria Foundation | YES 10 | open +2 | model 0.82; edge +0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.32 >= 0.3): AMF has remained recommended through roughly 92% of recent annual cycles and has committed GiveWell funding for 2027–2029, but the absent rules and possibility of changing Top Charity criteria warrant a discount. |
| 09-19 15:36 | v88 | Which charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2027? :: New Incentives | YES 11 | open +2 | model 0.86; edge +0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.86 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.36 >= 0.3): New Incentives has a 6/6 observed annual Top Charity retention rate, remains recommended in 2026, and is funded through March 2028, with modest reduction for unspecified resolution rules and GiveWell’s annual reevaluation. |
| 09-19 15:36 | v88 | Which charities will be recommended by GiveWell at the end of 2027? :: Malaria Consortium | YES 11 | open +2 | model 0.84; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.84 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.34 >= 0.3): Base rate is at least 10 consecutive annual recommendation cycles since 2016; Malaria Consortium remains a 2026 Top Charity and GiveWell plans continued SMC support, with the late-2027 giving-season update likely settling this on GiveWell’s Top Charities page, though absent resolution rules create some ambiguity between Top Charity status and any grant recommendation. |
| 09-19 11:29 | v88 | Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: Conservative Party of British Columbia | YES 5 | open -1 | model 0.62; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.32 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/1 (100%) for Conservative retention in the only prior Abbotsford-Mission election, when the party won 55.38%; the official Elections BC rules are clear, the key event is voting on September 26 with final results October 1, and despite Conservative incumbency the leader’s by-election and party turmoil make this materially closer than the raw base rate, with Elections BC as the exact resolver and no matching-market witness identified. |
| 09-19 11:29 | v88 | Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: CentreBC | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.02; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.32 (edge -0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0/4 recent Abbotsford-Mission elections for a minor party, while the rules clearly require the winning candidate’s party; CentreBC is listed as a candidate but has only about 3% in the matched Polymarket witness, with voting on September 26 and Elections BC’s October 1 final count as the resolver. [Elections BC](https://elections.bc.ca/2026-abbotsford-mission-by-election/) [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/abbotsford-mission-by-election-winner) |
| 09-19 11:29 | v88 | Which party will win the Abbotsford-Mission provincial by-election? :: British Columbia New Democratic Party | NO 9 | open -1 | model 0.17; edge -0.15; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs answer 0.32 (edge -0.15 >= 0.1): Base rate: the riding split its last two elections 1–1, with the Conservatives winning 55.4%–44.6% in 2024; the rules are clear, the vote is September 26 with preliminary results that night and final count October 1, Elections BC is the resolver, and a matching market implies roughly 14.5% for all non-Findlay candidates, so I estimate the NDP at 17% after accounting for Pam Alexis’s local strength and weak province-wide Conservative sentiment. |
| 09-19 05:41 | v88 | Strait or canal subject to UNCLOS transit passage rights closed by end 2030? | YES 100 | open -3 | model 0.85; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.85 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.35 >= 0.2): Hormuz appears to satisfy the question already, but ambiguity over effective versus formally recognized closure and the Wikipedia-based resolver warrants a modest discount. |
| 09-19 05:09 | v88 | China has nuclear-powered carrier in service by end 2040? | YES 100 | open +23 | model 0.74; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0/3 Chinese carriers nuclear-powered so far, but China commissioned three carriers in 2012–2025; the likely nuclear Type 004 is already under construction with 14 years before the 2040 deadline ([CSIS](https://features.csis.org/hiddenreach/china-fourth-carrier/)), while the 2026–2030 Five-Year Plan is the main scheduled milestone, no exact resolver is specified, and “in service” ambiguity warrants a modest pull toward 0.5. |
| 09-19 03:45 | v88 | Will any FBS College Football team score 90 or more points in a single game during the 2026 season? | NO 51 | open +0 | model 0.10; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 confirmed FBS teams scoring 90+ in 34 completed seasons (0%; Laplace-smoothed ~2.9%), while 2026 has already produced two 87-point games; absent resolution rules create modest source/counting ambiguity, but not enough to approach 0.5, and the remaining regular season, conference championships, bowls, and CFP through Jan. 25 are the relevant calendar; the resolver should be official NCAA game records (with Sports-Reference as a proxy), and no matching witness market was found. |
| 09-19 00:01 | v88 | What will be the next planetary-mass object to have its first ever spacecraft soft landing? :: Ceres | YES 4 | open -3 | model 0.42; edge +0.17; luna-medium price-blind says 0.42 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): Ceres is a plausible but unscheduled candidate, while ambiguous object boundaries, competing outer-moon landers, and no-event resolution language materially reduce confidence. |
| 09-18 21:26 | v88 | Will Anthropic's public Form S-1 appear on SEC EDGAR by October 31, 2026? | YES 39 | open +18 | model 0.82; edge +0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs market 0.35 (edge +0.47 >= 0.2): Base rate: confidential-to-public S-1 timing has a 72-day median and 106-day 75th percentile, versus 152 days from June 1 to October 31; the rules require an EDGAR-public filing, with no material ambiguity; the reported mid-October roadshow and late-September prospectus are the key calendar signals; EDGAR is the exact resolver, while the 64% Polymarket probability for an October listing is only a mismatched proxy that supports a higher filing probability because filing precedes the roadshow. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88 | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: A Call of the Senate will be ordered in the U.S. Senate befor | NO 70 | open +5 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate: roughly 0 formal compulsory Senate attendance calls since 1988 versus about 15–20 over the prior two centuries; the rules appear to mean that rare formal order, not routine quorum calls, with the 120th Congress convening January 3, 2027 and no scheduled event mechanically favoring it; resolution should be checked in the official Senate Journal/Congressional Record, and no matching witness market is available. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88 | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Neither a Call of the House nor a Call of the Senate will be | YES 78 | open -1 | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): Historical base rate is well under 1 formal compulsory-attendance call per Congress, and although the 120th Congress convenes January 3, 2027, the official Congressional Record and House/Senate Journals are unlikely to record one before January 17; ambiguity with ordinary quorum calls modestly lowers confidence. |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88 | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: For not attending member(s) of the house fined, arrested or o | NO 65 | open +0 | model 0.01; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Historical base rate is roughly 3 documented federal attendance-enforcement episodes in 228 years (~1.3% per year), and the Jan. 3, 2027 opening of the 120th Congress is the main scheduled catalyst, but formal sanctions remain rare; the stale “118th Congress” label creates ambiguity, so I use the House/Senate Journals and Congressional Record as resolvers ([House rule](https://rules.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/rules.house.gov/files/documents/houserules119thupdated.pdf), [Senate history](https://www.senate.gov/about/officers-staff/sergeant-at-arms/the-senate-compels-attendance-to-end-a-filibuster.htm), [official-record guidance](https://www.congress.gov/help/congressional-record?loclr=bloglaw)). |
| 09-18 21:08 | v88 | Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee D. C. By EOM | NO 65 | open +0 | model 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): A Senate call and subsequent senator departure by February 28 are both rare, and the rules do not define whether a House call qualifies or what counts as fleeing D.C. |
| 09-18 21:00 | v88 | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? :: Wales | NO 23 | open +8 | model 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0%—no current UK constituent country has left since 1922; with no resolution rules or named resolver, the 2030 Senedd election is the only relevant scheduled event, while independence would still require a referendum and UK constitutional action, so ambiguity warrants a modest pull toward 0.5. |
| 09-18 21:00 | v88 | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? :: Scotland | NO 13 | open +5 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Historical base rate is 1 UK constituent-country exit in 224 years (0.45% annually; roughly 2% over this horizon), raised by Scotland’s draft referendum bill but reduced because Westminster opposes another referendum, the next scheduled Scottish election is outside the window, and formal independence would require a referendum plus negotiated implementation; with no resolution rules, the exact resolver is ambiguous, so I use official UK constitutional legislation/status as the resolver and discount polling proxies.[Scottish Government](https://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-independence-referendum-bill-2026/), [UK Parliament](https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2026-09-09/28673), [House of Commons Library](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9104/) |
| 09-18 21:00 | v88 | Which countries will leave the UK by EOY 2030? :: Northern Ireland | NO 13 | open +4 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): The historical rate is 0 departures by current UK constituent countries since 1922, current official evidence says there is no clear basis for a Northern Ireland border poll, and although the 2027 Assembly election and a UK general election due by 2029 could shift politics, the undefined resolution rules add ambiguity and keep the estimate somewhat closer to 0.5. |
| 09-18 19:44 | v88 | Will Jacob Kalinovskiy 10x value at Recall.ai? | NO 40 | open -18 | model 0.22; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.64 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): A strong early hiring signal raises the roughly 5% base rate, but the undefined 10x standard and subjective resolution warrant a substantial ambiguity discount. |
| 09-18 17:39 | v88 | NFL Week 18 - Prop Bets :: Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0/9 comparable final regular-season weeks producing the season’s highest-scoring game; Week 18 runs Jan. 9–10, 2027, and NFL.com official box scores will resolve it, with ties paid fractionally, so YES is unlikely despite possible late-season defensive/rest volatility. |
| 09-18 17:39 | v88 | NFL Week 18 - Prop Bets :: At least one missed kicking extra point attempt | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.93; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 4.1–4.2% missed PATs per attempt (2023–24), implying roughly a 94–95% chance across ~69 weekly attempts; recent Week 18s both had one, with the official NFL gamebooks resolving the Jan. 9–10, 2027 slate, though blocked-versus-missed classification adds slight ambiguity. |
| 09-18 17:39 | v88 | NFL Week 18 - Prop Bets :: A 1pm ET game is still going when a 4:25pm ET game starts | NO 56 | open -0 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Recent Week 18 base rate is 0/3 slates, and a 1 p.m. game must exceed 3 hours 25 minutes despite the NFL’s standard Sunday-window format. |
| 09-18 17:39 | v88 | NFL Week 18 - Prop Bets :: Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Base rate: 3 hip-drop flags in 570 NFL regular-season games (0.53% per game; 1 in 2024 and 2 in 2025), implying about 8% across Week 18's 16 games; I set 10% because the rule remains active, with straightforward flag-based resolution via official NFL gamebooks, and Week 18 is scheduled for January 9–10, 2027 ([penalty data](https://nflpenalties.com/penalty/hip-drop-tackle?view=season), [NFL rulebook](https://www.nfl.com/news/2025-rulebook-part-2), [schedule](https://nfl-ops-prod-umbraco.azurewebsites.net/news-updates/the-game/2026-nfl-schedule-announced/)). |
| 09-18 16:44 | v88 | Which NFL football game will have the highest total points scored in the 2026-27 NFL Season? :: Week One: (59- | YES 19 | open -0 | model 0.90; edge +0.10; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs answer 0.80 (edge +0.10 >= 0.1): Base rate: 0 of the last four completed NFL seasons (2022–25) produced a game above 96 points; the NFL Game Center confirms Bears-Panthers at 96, ties count, and the remaining regular-season games plus playoffs through February 2027 are the scheduled threats, so I estimate a 10% chance of a higher total ([NFL Game Center](https://www.nfl.com/games/bears-at-panthers-2026-reg-1?tab=recap), [2024 example](https://amp.nfl.com/news/nfl-stats-and-records-week-14-bills-rams-features-individual-records-set-by-josh-allen-puka-nacua)). |
| 09-18 16:43 | v88 | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game | NO 56 | open +20 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Only two such penalties were called across the entire 2025 regular season after zero in 2024, so 16 Week 17 games imply roughly a 6% base-rate chance, adjusted slightly upward for year-to-year officiating variance. |
| 09-18 16:43 | v88 | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* | NO 56 | open +29 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is 1/7 recent seasons (14%; 6.25% iid benchmark), Week 17’s 16 games run Jan 1–4, 2027, and ties are discounted; the resolver is official NFL gamebook final scores, with no matching witness market. [Schedule](https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-17) [Gamebooks](https://support.nfl.com/hc/en-us/articles/35869678028180-Game-Books) |
| 09-18 16:43 | v88 | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: Pick Six | YES 53 | open +3 | model 0.90; edge +0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.40 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 85–90% for at least one pick-six in a 16-game NFL week; Week 17 has 16 scheduled games through Jan. 4, 2027, with late-season backup-QB risk mildly favorable, and the resolver should be official NFL gamebooks (using PFR/StatMuse as proxies), while “Pick Six” is slightly underspecified but conventionally clear. [NFL schedule](https://www.nfl.com/schedules/2026/by-week/week-17) |
| 09-18 16:43 | v88 | NFL Week 17 - Prop Bets :: At least one missed kicking extra point attempt | YES 60 | open +14 | model 0.95; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.95 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.45 >= 0.3): Recent NFL rates imply about 2.9–3.2 missed kicking PATs in a 16-game week, so at least one is approximately 95% likely, with official NFL gamebooks as the resolver. |
| 09-18 16:28 | v88 | NFL Week 16 - Prop Bets :: Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* | NO 69 | open +32 | model 0.01; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Base rate: games exceeding 96 combined points occur in roughly 0.05% of NFL regular-season games, implying about 0.8% across a 16-game week; I raise this to 1.5% for 2026's unusually high scoring, but Week 16's scheduled slate—including Jaguars-Cowboys and Giants-Lions—still needs to beat the official NFL gamebook leader of 96 points, with ties only partially resolving YES. |
| 09-18 16:28 | v88 | NFL Week 16 - Prop Bets :: At least one missed kicking extra point attempt | YES 60 | open +18 | model 0.95; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.95 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.45 >= 0.3): Recent NFL seasons average about 0.186 missed PATs per game, implying roughly a 95% chance of at least one across the 16-game Week 16 slate. |
| 09-18 16:28 | v88 | NFL Week 16 - Prop Bets :: Pick Six | YES 58 | open +6 | model 0.93; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 43 pick-sixes per 272-game season (15.8% per game), implying about 92.6% for a 16-game week; the rules appear unambiguous, no sentiment adjustment is needed, Week 16 runs Dec. 24–28, and the NFL gamebooks/statistics are the resolver, with prior matching Manifold weeks as weak corroboration. |
| 09-18 16:28 | v88 | NFL Week 16 - Prop Bets :: Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game | NO 56 | open +24 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is 3 hip-drop flags across 570 NFL games in 2024-25 (0.53% per game), implying about an 8% chance across Week 16's 16 games; the NFL schedule runs Dec. 24-28, and official NFL gamebooks/play-by-play would resolve it, while nflpenalties.com is only a proxy. |
| 09-18 14:59 | v88 | Will SPCX close at $150.00 or higher on Friday, September 18, 2026? (corrected close time) | YES 34 | settled -34 | model 0.83; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.83 vs market 0.60 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): SPCX entered the session at $154.81 and premarket indications were above $156, so despite elevated triple-witching volatility I estimate an 83% chance the official close remains at least $150. |
| 09-18 13:52 | v88 | Will the recorded US measles cases reach or exceed 3,500 cases in today's update? | YES 100 | settled +83 | model 0.78; edge +0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.78 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.28 >= 0.2): Recent growth implies roughly 138 cases over six days versus the 113 needed, so YES is favored despite reporting-lag and JHU-versus-CDC basis risk. |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88 | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Both | NO 15 | open +2 | model 0.01; edge -0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.24 >= 0.1): Both launches are unlikely given a 0/4 historical base rate, strong anti-launch norms, and only a small false-alarm cascade risk. |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88 | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Munich | NO 7 | open +1 | model 0.07; edge -0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate: 0 launches in the documented 2024 two-sided Petrov scenario (0/1) [retrospective](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NsxFcB2EAxcY6cdGh/2024-petrov-day-retrospective); rules count only an actual launch or retaliation, with 1% false-alarm risk per group, so Munich’s share is roughly half conditional on escalation; the 2026-09-26 Petrov Day event is the sole scheduled catalyst [ceremony](https://www.lesswrong.com/petrov/ceremony), and the exact resolver is the two-group event log/reveal at [petrov.rationality-munich.com](https://petrov.rationality-munich.com/), with no matching witness market found. |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88 | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Freiburg | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.14; edge -0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: 3 of 9 comparable Petrov button/group events had any launch (~33%); applying the rules, Freiburg is roughly half of launch scenarios, with ambiguity if both launch, and the main scheduled event is the Sep 26 ceremony; the exact resolver is the game's official state/log at https://petrov.rationality-munich.com/, while historical witness data comes from https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gLpYbWzqL2jArMepD/a-list-of-petrov-buttons. |
| 09-18 07:36 | v88 | Petrov Day 2026 - Munich vs. Freiburg - Who will launch? :: Neither | YES 17 | open +27 | model 0.91; edge +0.66; luna-medium price-blind says 0.91 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.66 >= 0.1): Base rate: 3/5 comparable Petrov exercises had neither side launch (60%); the rules imply at most 1.99% chance of any false alarm across both groups, though the resolver models a per-minute rate and the prompt is ambiguous, so I discount modestly; the Sep 26 ceremony, serious two-group setup, absent matching witness markets, and the Petrov tool’s event log/reveal favor restraint. |
| 09-18 05:07 | v88 | Will USA break its continuous human presence in outer space before 2040? | NO 100 | open -3 | model 0.27; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 major U.S. continuity gap in roughly 65 years of crewed spaceflight (1974–2000, versus uninterrupted presence since 2000); NASA plans ISS operations through 2030 and Artemis III in 2027/IV in 2028, but the uncertain commercial-station transition is the key risk, with NASA’s official ISS and crew records as resolver and no matching witness market found. |
| 09-18 05:00 | v88 | PMF or die (Forecasting AI Edition) | YES 100 | open -39 | model 0.54; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.54 vs market 0.20 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Base rate: I estimate about 25% of solo forecasting-bot projects started with <$200 reach top-bot competitiveness within four months; Capital’s near-peer current standing raises this, but “worth that” is subjective and ambiguous, with the Fall Cup closing Jan 1 and FutureEval Jan 6 ([Metaculus leaderboard](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=baseline&duration=1&year=2026), [Fall Cup](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/metaculus-cup-fall-2026/), [FutureEval](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/fall-futureeval-2026/)), and the exact resolver is Capital’s personal belief rather than an independently verifiable result. |
| 09-18 04:19 | v88 | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant B] make? :: Forfeit | NO 100 | settled +39 | model 0.15; edge -0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.18 >= 0.1): Base rate is roughly 1/6 (17%) per contestant choice from the three-option game, reduced slightly because the show may not begin; the rules and hidden Twist permit substantial ambiguity, no scheduled event or contestant-specific evidence is public, and the exact resolver is Quroe’s Manifold market at the Big Reveal, with prior Nash Pit markets only weak witnesses. |
| 09-18 04:18 | v88 | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant A] make? :: Steal | YES 84 | settled -84 | model 0.61; edge +0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.61 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.28 >= 0.1): Base rate is 2 Steals in 3 comparable Nash Pit contestant outcomes (67%); the rules make a failed show N/A, the Twist and Contestant A are unspecified, and the Sep 20 close is the only stated deadline, so I use 95% show-occurrence and discount toward 0.5; the resolver is Quroe’s Manifold market, with prior same-rule markets as witnesses. |
| 09-18 04:18 | v88 | Nash Pit, The Overhang 2026: What choice will [Contestant A] make? :: Forfeit | NO 100 | settled +32 | model 0.08; edge -0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.25 >= 0.1): Historical base rate is 0/2 observed Nash Pit Contestant-A forfeits, while the matching contestant-selection market puts show failure near 5%; the exact resolver is the Manifold market’s Big Reveal, no event time is publicly scheduled before the Sep 20 close, and the unrevealed Twist creates material rule ambiguity. |
| 09-18 02:07 | v88 | How many people will attend our 21th monthly NYC dinner? :: >=5 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.92; edge +0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.92 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.42 >= 0.3): Historical base rate is 18/20 = 90% (and the last 10 were all >=5); the rules clearly define the threshold, no exact dinner date or independent resolver is specified before the 2026-10-25 close, so I modestly adjust above base rate for the recent streak but retain uncertainty about scheduling and organizer-reported attendance. |
| 09-18 02:07 | v88 | How many people will attend our 21th monthly NYC dinner? :: >=6 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.82; edge +0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.82 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.32 >= 0.3): The historical base rate is 85% (17/20), recent attendance is strong, and I apply a modest ambiguity discount because the official counting source and event date are unspecified. |
| 09-18 00:22 | v88 | Where are we going? :: Mendocino | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.50; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): The market has no stated YES criterion or resolver, making the outcome fundamentally ambiguous. |
| 09-18 00:22 | v88 | Where are we going? :: Yosemite | YES 6 | settled -6 | model 0.50; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): Base rate is 0.50 because there is no defined resolution criterion; the label suggests Yosemite, but the missing rules, resolver, and scheduled event make YES versus NO genuinely ambiguous. |
| 09-18 00:22 | v88 | Where are we going? :: Tahoe | YES 6 | settled -6 | model 0.50; edge +0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.25 >= 0.1): Base rate: 50% absent a defined historical frequency; the rules name no resolver or qualifying event, and no calendar or witness evidence can disambiguate whether “Tahoe” counts. |
| 09-17 22:15 | v88 | Will Metroid Ravenous win Game of the Year at the Game Awards? | NO 56 | open +26 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.2): A likely eligible, well-positioned Nintendo sequel has meaningful nomination chances, but historical Nintendo conversion is 9.1% and Metroid has never won, implying about a 7% overall chance. |
| 09-17 21:58 | v88 | If the Conservatives get >100 seats in the next general election, will the PM at the end of 2027 be Labour? | NO 18 | open -0 | model 0.47; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.47 vs market 0.80 (edge -0.33 >= 0.2): Base rate: Conservatives exceeded 100 seats in 4 of the last 4 general elections; rules make YES the joint event and ambiguously imply N/A in other cases, so I pull toward 0.5; current polls show Labour/Reform 23% and Conservatives 20%, while Electoral Calculus projects Conservatives at 119 seats (90% range 35–247) ([YouGov](https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55507-voting-intention-6-7-september-2026), [Electoral Calculus](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html)); no UK general election is scheduled before close, though May 2027 local elections are scheduled, and the exact resolvers are the official GOV.UK PM record and verified Electoral Commission/Commons Library results ([GOV.UK](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister), [UK Parliament](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/)). |
| 09-17 21:48 | v88 | In which years will SpaceX launch crewed missions? :: 2028 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.89; edge +0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.89 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.39 >= 0.3): The observed annual rate is 7/7, NASA is expected to keep flying Crew Dragon before its planned retirement around 2030, and Artemis IV provides additional upside despite Starship schedule risk. |
| 09-17 21:48 | v88 | In which years will SpaceX launch crewed missions? :: 2029 | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.83; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.83 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.33 >= 0.3): Base rate is 7/7 years (2020–2026) with a SpaceX crewed launch; NASA’s contracted Dragon rotations and operational cadence make a 2029 launch likely, while Dragon retirement, Starship human-rating delays, and uncertain post-ISS demand reduce it from certainty; the resolver is NASA’s official mission/launch record, with Crew-13 and subsequent commercial-crew rotations as scheduled milestones, and no matching-market witness materially changes the estimate. |
| 09-17 19:20 | v88 | Will every Millennium Prize problem be solved before 2028 | NO 73 | open +16 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 1 of 7 Millennium problems solved in 26 years, with 0 of the 6 remaining solved under CMI’s two-year-publication-and-community-acceptance rules; despite AI-related sentiment and 2027 workshops, no scheduled event mechanically resolves them, the exact resolver is unspecified (best proxy: CMI’s official problem-status and announcement pages), and related markets concern individual announcements rather than all six qualifying, so I estimate 0.01%. |
| 09-17 19:12 | v88 | Principality of Piddlington will do what? (Prop bets) Add your own :: Manned border crossings | NO 13 | open +0 | model 0.11; edge -0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.39 >= 0.3): Base rate is effectively 0/known UK parishes establishing manned border crossings after symbolic secession; the rules do not define whether a staffed joke booth counts, so ambiguity nudges upward, but the vote has no legal force, the only scheduled event is the 17 September 2026 consultation deadline for the nearby asylum site, and the resolver would need a dated official Piddington Parish Council announcement or credible on-site report (current reporting confirms the declaration is symbolic: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/sep/16/english-village-piddington-leave-uk-protest-migrant-housing-plan; https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/asylum-accommodation-at-military-sites-factsheets/mod-bicester-site-a-oxfordshire-factsheet). |
| 09-17 18:46 | v88 | (Week 2) NFL 2026 Mega-Market: All Games / TV Guide 🏈 :: Dolphins beat 49ers (09/20) 4:25 PM (FOX) | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.13; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.13 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.37 >= 0.3): Miami is a 12.5–13.5-point road underdog with market-implied win probability around 13–14%, closely matching the roughly 11.2% historical outright-win rate for NFL underdogs at this spread. |
| 09-17 16:06 | v88 | Will Daniel Lord livestream between September 20 and September 27 of 2026? | YES 23 | open -4 | model 0.70; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.70 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate: 9 livestreams were observed from July 17–September 10 (1.125/week), implying about 72% for an 8-day window; the rules clearly count any qualifying YouTube start, no scheduled event is known before September 27, the resolver is the official Hiding in my room channel, and the prior related market resolved YES but had broader platform rules, so I discount it modestly. |
| 09-17 15:36 | v88 | What bad things will happen in Russia after elections? [prop bets] :: Official full mobilization | NO 10 | open +0 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): The historical base rate is extremely low, the contract’s undefined “full” threshold is ambiguous, and the closest market prices broader forced mobilization at 26–30%, warranting a downward adjustment. |
| 09-17 15:09 | v88 | Cycling World Championships 2026 - Women's ITT Winner :: Marlen Reusser | YES 55 | settled +56 | model 0.72; edge +0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.72 vs answer 0.37 (edge +0.35 >= 0.1): Base rate: Reusser has won 6 of her last 7 ITTs (86%), while only 0 of the last 4 women’s Worlds produced a repeat winner; the rules are clear, narrative risk is tempered by her recent 20.4-km Gatineau win and the absence of 2025 runner-up Van der Breggen, the only scheduled deciding event is the 39.2-km race on September 20 at 09:00 local time, and the resolver is the UCI’s official final result (with bookmaker odds around 1.30/76.9% and previews naming Reusser favourite as matching witnesses), so I discount slightly for Vollering/Bäckstedt and championship variance. |
| 09-17 15:09 | v88 | Cycling World Championships 2026 - Women's ITT Winner :: Zoe Backstedt | YES 10 | settled -10 | model 0.19; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.19 vs answer 0.07 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is about 1/40 (2.5%) per starter, while Bäckstedt is making her elite Worlds ITT debut; rules clearly specify this race, scheduled for September 20, and bookmaker odds imply roughly 19% after removing vig, with Reusser’s recent wins and the official PCS results page as the key evidence ([start list](https://www.idlprocycling.com/cycling/2026-womens-world-time-trial-championships-start-list-vollering-and-reusser-will-start-but-van-der-breggen-wont), [odds](https://www.sportingbet.com/en/sports/cycling-10/betting/world-6/world-championships-time-trial-women-35996), [course/schedule](https://downloads.ctfassets.net/761l7gh5x5an/5u7johFHbTgFMPP1GjYdGM/2026_UCI_ROAD_WCh_INFO-BULLETIN_EN_V06.pdf), [resolver](https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/world-championship-itt-we/2026)). |
| 09-17 13:11 | v88 | Will North Dakota State University play in the College Football Playoff this Season? | NO 26 | open +11 | model 0.25; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.25 vs market 0.45 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0% (0 known first-year FCS-to-FBS teams have reached the CFP); NCAA rules make NDSU eligible, but its 3-0 start faces the September 19 Sacramento State game and remaining Mountain West schedule, with the CFP Selection Committee as resolver, so I estimate a roughly 30% conference-title chance times about 80% CFP-selection chance, while discounting fan optimism. |
| 09-17 12:07 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.00; edge -0.25; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.25 >= 0.1): I estimate a 25% chance of a Conservative PM after the next election and a 0.2% chance of UK closed autocracy in 2034 conditional on that, implying 0.05% overall. |
| 09-17 12:07 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.11; edge -0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.14 >= 0.1): The UK has no observed electoral-autocracy history since 1900 and remains a democracy, but its recent V-Dem grey-zone deterioration plus a possible Conservative-led backsliding path supports a low double-digit probability by 2034. |
| 09-17 12:07 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.38; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: the UK was classified liberal democracy in 105 of 107 country-years from 1919–2025 (98%), but it shifted to electoral democracy in 2024–25; under the rules the exact resolver is V-Dem’s first official dataset release containing the UK’s 2034 v2x_regime value, with the next UK general election due by August 2029 as the key scheduled event, and the recent downgrade plus nine-year horizon lowers the conditional estimate to 0.38. |
| 09-17 12:07 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Conserv | NO 9 | open -1 | model 0.14; edge -0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: the UK was Electoral Democracy in 2 of 20 recent V-Dem years (2006–2025, 10%); applying the rules gives P(Conservative PM)≈0.25 × P(2034 Electoral Democracy | Conservative PM)≈0.55, with the next GE due by 15 August 2029, and the exact resolver being V-Dem’s first official dataset release containing the 2034 UK country-year observation (current v16 has the UK as ED), while polling/forecast evidence is only a proxy for the PM-party condition ([V-Dem data](https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/), [V-Dem 2026 report](https://v-dem.net/documents/75/V-Dem_Institute_Democracy_Report_2026_lowres.pdf), [UK Electoral Commission](https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/about-us/our-plans-priorities-and-spending/corporate-plan-2025/6-2029/30/our-future-priorities)). |
| 09-17 12:06 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Reform? | NO 12 | open -3 | model 0.11; edge -0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: V-Dem v16 classifies the UK as liberal democracy in 105/126 nonmissing years (83%), but electoral democracy in both 2024–25; I estimate a 35% chance of a Reform PM after the next GE and 30% conditional probability of returning to liberal democracy by 2034, with the next GE due by 15 August 2029 and settlement by the first official V-Dem release containing UK 2034 data ([V-Dem dataset](https://www.v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/), [UK Parliament election timetable](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/)). |
| 09-17 12:06 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Reform? | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.55; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.55 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Base rate is 52/52 recent UK country-years as liberal or electoral democracy, but conditional Reform-led backsliding makes Electoral Democracy only modestly more likely than autocratic or liberal alternatives by 2034. |
| 09-17 12:06 | v88 | What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Reform? | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.25 (edge -0.24 >= 0.1): Base rate: UK closed autocracy was 0/124 V-Dem country-years from 1900–2023; rules are clear, and even conditional on a Reform PM I estimate only ~1.5% for closed autocracy in 2034, while Reform’s chance of supplying that PM is ~33%; the next GE is due by 15 August 2029, and the resolver is V-Dem’s first 2034 release of v2x_regime, with current polling only a noisy proxy and institutional base rates outweighing political hype. |
| 09-17 06:04 | v88 | Will there be a usable internet in 2030? | NO 67 | open -56 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.2): Base rate: ITU reports 74% of people online in 2025, up from 68% in 2024; the rules' subjective 'normal folks' and 'typical day' wording adds uncertainty, no scheduled event mechanically changes this before close, and absent a named resolver I use ITU global connectivity data as a proxy with no matching witness markets. |
| 09-17 03:08 | v88 | Will Dario amodei be banned from entering China by eoy2028 | NO 49 | open +4 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.2): Base rate: roughly 1–3% of prominent foreign business figures face a formal Chinese entry ban over a comparable three-year period; recent official criticism of Amodei modestly raises this, but the ruleless wording creates ambiguity between a formal ban and mere visa refusal, no specific scheduled event or matching witness market is evident, and the resolver would be an official PRC MFA/National Immigration Administration announcement rather than media or sentiment. |
| 09-16 23:35 | v88 | Is Union Alpha a router? | NO 39 | settled +0 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is 0 of 13 prior OpenRouter stealth models confirmed as routers; Union Alpha is currently only an anonymous third-party model on the official OpenRouter page, with no routing evidence beyond an Anthropic-compatible endpoint, and the likely preview reveal around September 23 is not a confirmed scheduled event, so I assign 18% despite the wrapper-risk narrative. |
| 09-16 21:16 | v88 | Will bluelinfish finish his county song by EOY? | NO 36 | open -1 | model 0.20; edge -0.29; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate estimated at ~20% for an unfinished personal song becoming a memorized full live performance within 3.5 months; no reliable evidence, scheduled performance, matching witness market, or objective resolver page is public, and the subjective “convincing” rule adds ambiguity. |
| 09-16 21:11 | v88 | Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Takamoto Katsuta | NO 8 | open -0 | model 0.14; edge -0.36; luna-medium price-blind says 0.14 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.36 >= 0.3): Katsuta has strong Toyota equipment and two 2026 wins, but his roughly 9.8% career podium rate, zero Sardinia podiums, and three recent non-podium/retirement results imply about a 14% chance. |
| 09-16 20:11 | v88 | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @ChristopherRandles | NO 18 | open -8 | model 0.01; edge -0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.49 >= 0.3): Estimated from roughly 5 winners per 2.1M historical entries, allowing for Christopher’s unknown but likely above-one-entry participation and a small cancellation/eligibility risk. |
| 09-16 20:11 | v88 | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @Taison | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.02; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.02 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.3): Taison's 5,533 of 1,505,736 entries imply about a 1.83% chance of being among five unique winners, with a small deduction for cancellation or disqualification risk. |
| 09-16 20:11 | v88 | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @Mvem | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): Base rate: five prizes among roughly 2.1 million implied entries in Drawing #30 is about 0.0000024 per entry; rules give @Mvem unknown entries and allow cancellation, the relevant scheduled event is the 2026-10-15 close followed by Bitcoin-block selection, and the exact resolver is Manifold’s official prize page, so uncertainty modestly raises this to 0.01%. |
| 09-16 20:11 | v88 | Who will be the winners of Manifold Prize Drawing #31 :: @DottedCalculator | NO 8 | open +0 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.3): BASE RATE: Drawing #30 had about 1.203 million entries and 5 winners, so one free entry implied 0.00042%; RULES: @DottedCalculator’s entry count is unknown and Manifold may cancel; NARRATIVE: activity is not evidence of winning; CALENDAR: entries close October 15, 2026, with selection from the next Bitcoin block; RESOLVER: the official Manifold prize page and published rules ([FAQ](https://docs.manifold.markets/prize-faq), [rules](https://docs.manifold.markets/prize-rules)); WITNESSES: no directly matching market price, so I allow for roughly a few hundred entries by this active user and estimate 0.1%. |
| 09-16 18:18 | v88 | Dummy Market, resolves N/A :: Share | NO 28 | open | model 0.00; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.37 (edge -0.37 >= 0.1): Base rate for comparable dummy markets resolving YES is unavailable (assumed 0%); the rules explicitly state N/A, with no qualifying resolver, event, or matching witness before the 2026-09-24 close. |
| 09-16 18:18 | v88 | Dummy Market, resolves N/A :: Forfeit | NO 29 | open | model 0.00; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.32 (edge -0.32 >= 0.1): Base rate is effectively 0% for an explicitly nonpredictive dummy market marked N/A/Forfeit; the rules clearly preclude YES, no scheduled event matters before 2026-09-24, and the Nash Pit live display dashboard is the exact resolver with no matching witness markets. |
| 09-16 18:18 | v88 | Dummy Market, resolves N/A :: Steal | NO 30 | open | model 0.00; edge -0.31; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.31 (edge -0.31 >= 0.1): Base rate for explicitly N/A dummy markets resolving YES is 0%; the rules specify N/A, with no calendar event or witness that can override the named resolver (the Nash Pit live display dashboard). |
| 09-16 17:59 | v88 | Alex Wissner-Gross will be named to the Forbes Midas List in 2030 or earlier | NO 58 | open -21 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.2): Base rate: 6–25 newcomers among 100 annually (about 13% of the list, roughly 3% per candidate-year across hundreds of candidates); Forbes’s rules require institutional-fund investing and major qualifying outcomes, while Alex’s profile shows 40+ backed companies but no clear evidence of a qualifying closed fund or Midas-scale exit, with annual lists expected around May 2027–2030 and the exact resolver being Forbes’s Midas List page; no matching market witness was found. [Forbes methodology](https://www.forbes.com/sites/truebridge/2024/06/04/how-the-midas-list-2024-was-created-the-data-behind-the-top-vcs/), [Alex Wissner-Gross](https://www.alexwg.org/), [Forbes Midas List](https://www.forbes.com/lists/midas/) |
Showing the newest 80 of 515 trades.
515 trades, 17,193 staked, realised +538, open +2895 if held / +901 if sold, 87 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 1
answers across 99 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
515 trades for 17,193 mana. 110 of them settled for +538.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.