mc‑indep

module 1.0 · v88 ← trader

A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 38%. So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.

Markets it bet, and how many answers each took

🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart.11 answers · 42 mana · v88
Will Silver’s final mont0.50Will Silver’s final mont0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will one troy ounce of S0.50Will Silvers gain buying0.50
who be the new operations contributors at hack club?11 answers · 42 mana · v88
lynn (headpatsyou)0.50aryan0.50colin0.50ari0.50pianoman0.50aarav j0.50raygen0.50tom0.50rowan0.50sahil0.50stelle0.50
Which women's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals?10 answers · 144 mana · v88
🇧🇾 A. Sabalenka0.50🇺🇸 C. Gauff0.50🇺🇸 J. Pegula0.50🇰🇿 E. Rybakina0.50🇵🇱 I. Swiatek0.50🇺🇦 E. Svitolina0.50🇷🇺 M. Andreeva0.50🇺🇦 M. Kostyuk0.50🇨🇿 K. Muchova0.50🇵🇭 A. Eala0.50
Who will be the 3 main headliners of Glastonbury 202710 answers · 150 mana · v88
Harry Styles0.50Sam Fender0.50Sabrina Carpenter0.50Oasis0.50Foo Fighters0.50Olivia Dean0.50Green Day0.50Lady Gaga0.50Chappell Roan0.50Madonna0.50
What will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)10 answers · 144 mana · v88
Bitcoin trades above $900.50Bitcoin trades below $700.50S&P 500 closes at a new 0.50Any Magnificent Seven st0.50Copper reaches a new all0.50SpaceX conducts an orbit0.50Anthropic publicly relea0.50Google publicly releases0.50A magnitude 7.0+ earthqu0.50A newly released song re0.50
Claude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date10 answers · 106 mana · v88
Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-160.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-160.50Before 2026-12-010.50Before 2026-12-160.50Before 2027-01-010.50Before 2027-01-160.50Before 2027-02-010.50Before 2027-02-160.50
Claude 6 (Anthropic) release date10 answers · 106 mana · v88
Before October 20260.50Before November 20260.50Before December 20260.50Before January 20270.50Before February 20270.50Before March 20270.50Before April 20270.50Before May 20270.50Before June 20270.50Before July 20270.50
Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker10 answers · 150 mana · v88
Week 1: KC vs. Denver Br0.50Week 2: KC vs. Indianapo0.50Week 3: KC @ Miami Dolph0.50Week 4: KC @ Las Vegas R0.50Week 6: KC vs. Los Angel0.50Week 7: KC @ Seattle Sea0.50Week 8: KC @ Denver Bron0.50Week 9: KC vs. New York 0.50Week 10: KC @ Atlanta Fa0.50Week 11: KC vs. Arizona 0.50
Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election?10 answers · 106 mana · v88
Talarico wins by 9% or m0.50Talarico wins by 7% or m0.50Talarico wins by 5% or m0.50Talarico wins by 3% or m0.50Talarico wins by 1% or m0.50Paxton wins by 1% or mor0.50Paxton wins by 3% or mor0.50Paxton wins by 5% or mor0.50Paxton wins by 7% or mor0.50Paxton wins by 9% or mor0.50
VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market9 answers · 143 mana · v88
[C OP] Team Liquid beats0.50[C OP] TYLOO beats G2 Es0.50[D OP] Nongshim RedForce0.50[D OP] Karmine Corp beat0.50[B OP] Global Esports be0.50[B OP] LOUD beats EDward0.50[A OP] 100 Thieves beats0.50[A OP] JD Gaming beats F0.50[GF] [UBF Winner] beats 0.50
Senate and House Call of the House prop bets.9 answers · 106 mana · v88
Subsequent to Call of th0.50Subsequent to Call of th0.50Subsequent to Call of th0.50A Call of the House will0.50A Call of the Senate wil0.50Neither a Call of the Ho0.50For not attending Senato0.50Subsequent to Call of th0.50For not attending member0.50
Navier-Stokes Drama Prop Bets7 answers · 143 mana · v88
Tristan Buckmaster publi0.50A public apology is issu0.50Legal action is initiate0.50Tristan Buckmaster delet0.50OpenAI makes a statement0.50OpenAI claims to have so0.50The ultimate post claimi0.50
GPT 6.1+ (OpenAI) release date7 answers · 105 mana · v88
Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-160.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-160.50Before 2026-12-010.50Before 2026-12-160.50Before 2027-01-010.50
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date7 answers · 143 mana · v88
Before 2026-09-210.50Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-110.50Before 2026-10-210.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-160.50Before 2026-12-010.50

A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.

Where candidates died · 100 markets judged

80not a live multi-choiceresolved, closed, or not multiple-choice
14someone got there firstthe answers were traded before we arrived
5blocked topic or too far outa category with no usable history, or closing past the cap
1shared bookanswers sharing one book belong to mc-other

The book · v88

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Neither a Call of the House nor a Call of the Senate will beNO 12open -6independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: For not attending Senator(s) fined, arrested or otherwise saNO 12open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, house member(s) flee US By NO 12open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: For not attending member(s) of the house fined, arrested or NO 12open +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee D. C. By EONO 12open +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, senator(s) flee US By EOM FNO 12open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: Subsequent to Call of the House, house member(s) flee D. C. NO 12open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: A Call of the House will be ordered in the U.S. House of RepNO 12open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-18 21:01v88Senate and House Call of the House prop bets. :: A Call of the Senate will be ordered in the U.S. Senate befoNO 12open +5independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88September 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: Trump or Xi publicly warn of extinction risks from advanced NO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88September 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: The US and China announce a new bilateral mechanism for manaNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88September 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: Anthropic executive attend the SummitNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-17 04:01v88September 2026 Trump-Xi Summit props :: The US materially eases advanced-AI chip restrictions on ChiNO 3open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Oliver SolbergNO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Takamoto KatsutaNO 4open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Adrien FourmauxNO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Sébastien OgierNO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Thierry NeuvilleNO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Elfyn EvansNO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 21:06v88Podium Sitters of WRC Rally Italia Sardegna 2026 :: Sami PajariNO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: aarav jNO 4settled +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: raygenNO 4settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: tomNO 4settled +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: rowanNO 4settled -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: sahilNO 4settled +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: stelleNO 4settled +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: lynn (headpatsyou)NO 4settled +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: aryanNO 4settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: colinNO 4settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: ariNO 4settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 17:18v88who be the new operations contributors at hack club? :: pianomanNO 4settled +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 14:16v88Who will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? :: Somehow, somebody not listed becomes a ContestNO 5settled -5independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 14:16v88Who will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? :: Somehow, somebody not listed becomes another CNO 5settled -5independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 14:16v88Who will be the Contestants for Nash Pit: The Overhang 2026? :: The show fails to fire, and nobody becomes a CNO 5settled +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 02:31v88Who will win the CA-4 house election? :: Mike Thompson (D)NO 6cancelledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-16 02:31v88Who will win the CA-4 house election? :: Eric Jones (D)NO 6cancelledindependent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88Will UK job vacancies increase? :: October 2026NO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88Will UK job vacancies increase? :: November 2026NO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88Will UK job vacancies increase? :: December 2026NO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-15 21:24v88Will UK job vacancies increase? :: January 2027NO 4open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 17:48v88Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? :: Yes - and it involves RSINO 35open +30independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 17:48v88Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? :: Yes - and it involves a hack (hugging face level extreme or NO 36open +29independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 17:48v88Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? :: No, nothing that creator considers wild happenedNO 36open -28independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 04:46v88Brazil 2026 Election: Who will finish THIRD in Brazil's presidential election? :: Augusto CuryNO 3open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 04:46v88Brazil 2026 Election: Who will finish THIRD in Brazil's presidential election? :: Ronaldo CaiadoNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 04:46v88Brazil 2026 Election: Who will finish THIRD in Brazil's presidential election? :: Renan SantosNO 3open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 04:46v88Brazil 2026 Election: Who will finish THIRD in Brazil's presidential election? :: Romeu ZemaNO 3open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Paxton wins by 5% or moreNO 11open +6independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Paxton wins by 7% or moreNO 11open +8independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Paxton wins by 9% or moreNO 11open +8independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Talarico wins by 9% or moreNO 11open +7independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Talarico wins by 7% or moreNO 11open +7independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Talarico wins by 5% or moreNO 11open +5independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Talarico wins by 3% or moreNO 11open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Talarico wins by 1% or moreNO 11open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Paxton wins by 1% or moreNO 11open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-14 02:27v88Winning Margin in 2026 Texas Senate Election? :: Paxton wins by 3% or moreNO 11open +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.391 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more residential kilowatt NO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more bitcoin satoshis 09/3NO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more grams of gold 09/30/2NO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will Silvers gain buying power in September of at least 5 ofNO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will Silver’s final monthly benchmark close higher (09/30/20NO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will Silver’s final monthly benchmark close higher (09/30/20NO 4open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more dozens of Grade A larNO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more gallons of whole milkNO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more gallons of regular gaNO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more pounds of ground beefNO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-13 16:41v88🥈 Fun With Silver: The Monthly Shopping Cart. :: Will one troy ounce of Silver buy more pounds of white breadNO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [A OP] JD Gaming beats FUT Esports (Sep 27, after 100T vs T1NO 17open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [GF] [UBF Winner] beats [LBF Winner] (Oct 18, 2pm UTC+8)NO 8open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [C OP] Team Liquid beats Paper Rex (Sep 24, 5pm UTC+8)NO 17open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [C OP] TYLOO beats G2 Esports (Sep 24, after TL v PRX)NO 17open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [D OP] Nongshim RedForce beats NRG (Sep 25, 5pm UTC+8)NO 17open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [D OP] Karmine Corp beats Xi Lai Gaming (Sep 25, after NS v NO 17open -9independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [B OP] Global Esports beats Team Vitality (Sep 26, 5pm UTC+8NO 17open -6independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [B OP] LOUD beats EDward Gaming (Sep 26, after GE v VIT)NO 17open -7independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-10 10:26v88VALORANT Champions Shanghai (2026) Mega-Market :: [A OP] 100 Thieves beats T1 (Sep 27, 5pm UTC+8)NO 17open -4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-09 19:57v88Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker :: Week 11: KC vs. Arizona Cardinals (11/22)NO 15open -8independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-09 19:57v88Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker :: Week 2: KC vs. Indianapolis Colts (09/20)NO 15settled -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
09-09 19:57v88Taylor Swift @ Kansas City Chiefs Game Tracker :: Week 3: KC @ Miami Dolphins (09/27)NO 15open +6independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50

Showing the newest 80 of 196 trades.

196 trades, 2,228 staked, realised -61, open +98 if held / +43 if sold.

196 answer-bets across 30 markets for 2,228 mana; realised -61 on 55 settled. Largest single market: 11 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.