A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 40% for ai, 36% for crypto, 38% for entertainment, 37% for geopolitics, 35% for other, 43% for personal, 39% for politics, 43% for sports, 41% for stocks (38% for anything unnamed). So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes. It is running in shadow in this version: every bet below is paper, judged like a real one but never sent.
A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: It performs worse than GPT-5.6 Sol on at least one benchmark | NO 1 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Scores at least 40% on Terminal Bench Science | NO 1 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Scores at least 55% on Terminal Bench 4 | NO 1 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: OpenAI claims it is AGI within one week of release | NO 1 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Resolves a FrontierMath Open Problems "Solid Result" Within | NO 1 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Scores at least 80% on DeepSWE | NO 1 | open +1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Scores at least 60% on Exploit Gym | NO 1 | open +1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Scores at least 67 on Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index | NO 1 | open +1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Costs at least $50 per million output tokens on release | NO 1 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 09-03 01:54 | v87 | OpenAI Astra Prop Bets :: Scores at least 50% on Gene Bench Pro | NO 1 | open +1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
10 trades, 11 staked, realised +0, open -3 if held / -3 if sold.
10 answer-bets across 1 markets for
11 mana; realised +0 on 0
settled. Largest single market: 10 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.