mc‑other

module 1.0 · v87 ← trader

When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.

A bet on Other also covers any answer added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.

The slice it fades

What tier will the next Claude release be? :: Otherbet 8 mana · v87 · settled +2
the named answers“other” at 0.20 → worth about 0.12

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v87

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-03 14:48v87What tier will the next Claude release be? :: OtherNO 8settled +2sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12

1 trade, 8 staked, realised +2, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.

1 catch-alls faded for 8 mana; realised +2 on 1 settled. This module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.