Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 14:03 | v87 | When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? :: Between January 2027 and 12/31/2028 | YES 8 | settled -8 | model 0.62; edge +0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): With TNX only about 32 basis points below 5%, two years of volatility and scheduled macro/fiscal catalysts make an intraday breach more likely than not, though the modern historical base rate and mean-reversion argue against a very high probability. |
| 09-03 14:03 | v87 | When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? :: Before November 1, 2026 | YES 7 | settled +14 | model 0.57; edge +0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.57 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.32 >= 0.1): Base rate: roughly 45% for a 20–25 bp intraday rise within 42 trading days when the 10-year starts within 25 bp of 5%; with TNX near 4.75–4.80%, upward momentum, scheduled jobs/CPI releases and FOMC meetings before November 1, and the exact CBOE ^TNX daytime rule requiring a strict print above 50.00, I raise it modestly, while allowing for proxy/current-data and rule ambiguity. |
| 09-03 14:03 | v87 | When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? :: Not before January 1, 2029 | YES 10 | settled -10 | model 0.68; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.68 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.43 >= 0.1): The yield is already near 5% and has roughly a two-year window to cross it, but the historically infrequent nature of sustained 5% regimes, likely mean reversion, and the rules’ date/holiday ambiguity keep the estimate below 0.7. |
| 09-03 14:03 | v87 | When will the US 10 year treasury note yield go higher than 5%? :: Before January 1, 2027 | YES 8 | settled -8 | model 0.62; edge +0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.62 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.37 >= 0.1): With ^TNX already near 4.8%, a 20-basis-point intraday breach before 2027 is more likely than not, though scale ambiguity and recession/Fed-easing risks keep the estimate near 0.5. |
| 09-03 13:47 | v87 | Guess my 3 least favourite animals (10 mana bonus, read desc) :: Termite | NO 14 | settled +9 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is about 3% for a random animal to be among three favorites out of roughly 100 common categories; the rules make YES depend on the creator’s final resolution, termite is unusually disliked, no scheduled event mechanically changes it before September 10, and the exact resolver is the creator’s market announcement/comments, so I estimate 8%. |
| 09-03 13:30 | v87 | Bundesliga — 2026-27 Matchday 2 Fixtures :: FC Schalke 04 beat Bayern München (5 Sep @ 18:30 CEST) | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Base rate: Schalke have 0 wins in their last 25 against Bayern and Bayern are unbeaten in 26 recent Bundesliga away matches (20 wins, 6 draws); rules are unambiguous, the scheduled event is Schalke–Bayern on 5 September at 18:30 CEST, the resolver is Bundesliga’s official Matchday 2 results page, and market odds imply about 6.5% after normalization. |
| 09-03 12:22 | v87 | NFL Week 1: Will Seattle cover -3.5 vs. New England OR will total points be 46 or more? | YES 24 | settled -24 | model 0.73; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.73 vs market 0.52 (edge +0.21 >= 0.2): Historical baseline for -3.5/44.5 NFL markets puts this OR near 75%; with Seattle -3.5 and total 44.5 (bookmaker proxies), I estimate 73%, pending the September 9 game and settlement by the NFL.com official box score. |
| 09-03 05:36 | v87 | Which team will win the 2026 Global Chess League? :: Alpine APL Pipers | YES 0 | unfilled | model 0.30; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs answer 0.17 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: Alpine won 1 of 3 prior GCL seasons (33%), versus a 16.7% six-team neutral prior; rules are clear and official FIDE confirms a six-team double round robin followed by knockouts, with the event scheduled for September 5–13 and the official GCL announcement as resolver; Carlsen-led Alpine is described as the top favorite, but high-variance rapid team play keeps the estimate below the historical rate, with no matching market witness found. [FIDE preview](https://www.fide.com/gcl-season-4-preview-what-to-expect-as-the-worlds-top-players-head-to-bengaluru/) |
| 09-03 01:26 | v87 | Vilenkin's tunneling wave function becomes well-defined in his life time? | NO 100 | open +15 | model 0.05; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs market 0.31 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Base rate is effectively 0 analogous general non-perturbative quantum-gravity formulations achieving consensus over decades; at age 77 his roughly 7% annual mortality rate limits the runway, while the latest work remains minisuperspace or highlights unresolved instabilities, no scheduled event mechanically changes this, and the exact resolver is the market creator’s review of APS/arXiv literature and community consensus (with no matching witness markets), so I assign 5% despite subjective wording that adds some uncertainty. |
| 09-03 01:21 | v87 | Next Bond | YES 3 | open +1 | model 0.94; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.94 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.44 >= 0.2): Interpreting YES as any actor outcome rather than N/A, the historical base rate is 7/7 prior mainline Bond transitions eventually receiving an official successor announcement, while Amazon confirms the search is active, early-September screen tests are scheduled, and the producer expects casting by year-end, with the exact resolver being Amazon MGM/Eon or a qualifying trade publication ([Amazon](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/entertainment/next-james-bond-movie-latest), [screen-test report](https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/8/26/jack-barton-leads-james-bond-shortlist-set-for-screen-tests-with-lowden-turner-elordi-mescal-and-dickinson), [producer timeline](https://www.gamesradar.com/entertainment/james-bond-movies/bond-producer-says-its-a-good-bet-the-next-007-will-be-cast-by-the-end-of-the-year/)). |
10 trades, 174 staked, realised -27, open +16 if held / +16 if sold, 2 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
10 trades for 174 mana. 6 of them settled for -27.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.