A market that is still a heavy favourite with hours left has very little time left to be wrong. This module works the last 24 hours of a market's life and takes the side the clock favours: buy YES at 0.90–0.97, buy NO at 0.03–0.15. Nothing in the middle, and nothing whose price is just an untouched ante.
Time runs toward the close on the right-hand end, because that is the direction opportunity moves here: a market enters this module's world by running out of time, not by changing price. Dots outside the two lanes were seen and left alone. 62 trades from the book at their price and hours-to-close when placed, ringed.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 09:44 | v82 | WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 07:14 | v82 | Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip? | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 04:43 | v82 | Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026 | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 04:43 | v82 | Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 04:43 | v82 | Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 04:43 | v82 | Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st? | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 04:43 | v82 | Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025? | NO 25 | open -2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 03:43 | v82 | Will Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising contain a magical girl first introduced in Magia Record? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 03:43 | v82 | Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 03:43 | v82 | Gemini 3.5 Flash trades for a profit by the end of the month? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 03:43 | v82 | Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week of her passing | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 03:43 | v82 | Will the worlds installed power generation from nuclear sources in 2025 be more than 3000 TWh ? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 09-01 03:43 | v82 | Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding? | NO 25 | open +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 22:12 | v82 | Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 22:12 | v82 | Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by Sep | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 22:12 | v82 | Will Iran and US actually cease fire before September 2026? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 20:42 | v82 | Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September? | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 20:11 | v82 | Will weights for Muse Spark 1.2 be released by end of August 2026? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 18:41 | v82 | Will SPY's August 2026 closing price be higher than its August 2026 opening price? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-31 18:11 | v82 | Will Alvarez join barca this summer | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 18:11 | v82 | Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 17:41 | v82 | Any new Claude or GPT before end of August 2026? | NO 25 | settled +4 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 17:41 | v82 | Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 12:10 | v82 | Will Google publicly release Gemini 3.5 Pro before September 1, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 12:10 | v82 | METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September | NO 25 | open +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 08:09 | v82 | [Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 08:09 | v82 | Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in August 2026? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 07:39 | v82 | Will Iran strike US military base at least once in August? | YES 25 | settled +2 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-31 07:39 | v82 | Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026] | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 04:38 | v82 | Will the Liberal-National Coalition lead One Nation in the polls at the end of August 2026? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 04:08 | v82 | tung tung tung sahur dies by the end of the month | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 03:38 | v82 | Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 01:38 | v82 | Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 00:07 | v82 | Will territory change hands between Georgia (in the Caucasus) and separatists/Russia before Sep 2026 | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 00:07 | v82 | Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 60 kt on August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 00:07 | v82 | Will it be possible to acquire or assemble a Framework laptop with a trackpoint? | NO 25 | open -2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 00:07 | v82 | By end of 2026, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 00:07 | v82 | Will Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production fall below 80 kt on August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-31 00:07 | v82 | Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 23:07 | v82 | GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st? | NO 25 | settled +3 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 23:07 | v82 | Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 23:07 | v82 | Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps | YES 25 | open +0 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 23:07 | v82 | Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | open +0 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | 🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | 🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Tripping remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 202 | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will chris (strutheo) remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Christopher Randles remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +2 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Zanda Zhu remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will JasonMendoza2008 remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Miguel Sánchez remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will DP remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Toward a theory of everything remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will draaglom remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Daniel Tello remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Simon remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Ziddletwix remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Mary Smith remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40? | YES 25 | settled +1 | favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Alex remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +1 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
| 08-30 22:07 | v82 | Will Joe and Seth remain in Masters after Season 40? | NO 25 | settled +2 | longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95% |
62 trades, 1,550 staked, realised +71, open +3 if held / +2 if sold.
62 collected for 1,550 mana, of which
10 on the favourite side.
The band edges matter more than the
stake: this module is buying near-certainty, so a single wrong one costs
several right ones.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:12Z.