Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 9 | 200 | +0.0 (0 settled) | +7.2 | -17.9 | +0.80 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 05:20 | v82 | Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 05:17 | v82 | ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026? | NO 85 | open +19 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.18->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 22:01 | v82 | roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 20:10 | v82 | Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2 | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.58; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 19:38 | v82 | Will Jacob Wear Shorts Tomorrow (9/1)? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 19:31 | v82 | Week 2 EPL- Aston Villa vs Arsenal (August 31 2026) Will Arsenal WIN @ Aston Villa? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 223-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 15:34 | v82 | Gender of Bonnie Blues kid | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 240-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 23:21 | v82 | CdyzQLQ8hs | NO 115 | open -37 | fade (blind, verify after): single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.75->0.88; market not in cache |
| 08-30 23:16 | v82 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.72->0.95; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
9 trades, 200 staked, realised +0, open +7 if held / -18 if sold, 7 unfilled.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 200 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.