mc‑indep

module 1.0 · v82 ← trader

A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 40% for ai, 36% for crypto, 38% for entertainment, 37% for geopolitics, 35% for other, 43% for personal, 39% for politics, 43% for sports, 41% for stocks (38% for anything unnamed). So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.

Markets it bet, and how many answers each took

GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date9 answers · 92 mana · v82
Before 2026-09-110.50Before 2026-09-210.50Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-110.50Before 2026-10-210.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-110.50Before 2026-11-210.50Before 2026-12-010.50
Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date7 answers · 31 mana · v82
Before 2026-09-110.50Before 2026-09-210.50Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-110.50Before 2026-10-210.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-12-010.50
Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date7 answers · 16 mana · v82
Before 2026-09-110.50Before 2026-09-210.50Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-110.50Before 2026-10-210.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-12-010.50
Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date7 answers · 16 mana · v82
Before 2026-09-110.50Before 2026-09-210.50Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-110.50Before 2026-10-210.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-12-010.50
Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date7 answers · 105 mana · v82
Before 2026-09-160.50Before 2026-10-010.50Before 2026-10-160.50Before 2026-11-010.50Before 2026-11-160.50Before 2026-12-010.50Before 2026-12-160.50
Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date5 answers · 30 mana · v82
Before October 20260.50Before November 20260.50Before December 20260.50Before January 20270.50Before February 20270.50
V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date5 answers · 75 mana · v82
Before October 20260.50Before November 20260.50Before December 20260.50Before January 20270.50Before February 20270.50
Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date5 answers · 75 mana · v82
Before October 20260.50Before November 20260.50Before December 20260.50Before January 20270.50Before February 20270.50

A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v82

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-09-16NO 15settled -15independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-10-01NO 15settled -15independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-10-16NO 15settled -15independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-11-01NO 15settled +11independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-11-16NO 15settled +11independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-12-01NO 15settled +11independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Muse Spark 1.3+ (Meta) release date :: Before 2026-12-16NO 15settled +11independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-11-21NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-12-01NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-10-21NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-11-01NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-11-11NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-09-11NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-09-21NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-10-01NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82GPT 5.7+ (OpenAI) release date :: Before 2026-10-11NO 10settled -10independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date :: Before January 2027NO 15open -11independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date :: Before February 2027NO 15open -12independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date :: Before October 2026NO 15open +11independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date :: Before November 2026NO 15open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date :: Before December 2026NO 15open -9independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date :: Before January 2027NO 15open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date :: Before February 2027NO 15open -7independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date :: Before October 2026NO 15open +9independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date :: Before November 2026NO 15open +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82V4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date :: Before December 2026NO 15open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date :: Before February 2027NO 6open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date :: Before November 2026NO 6open +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date :: Before December 2026NO 6open +1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date :: Before January 2027NO 6open -1independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Inkling 2+ (Thinking Machines) release date :: Before October 2026NO 6open +4independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-10-21NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-11-01NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-12-01NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-10-01NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-10-11NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-09-11NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date :: Before 2026-09-21NO 2open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-10-21NO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-11-01NO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-12-01NO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-10-01NO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-10-11NO 2settled -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-09-11NO 2settled +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Grok 4.7+ (xAI) release date :: Before 2026-09-21NO 2settled +2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-11-01NO 5open -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-12-01NO 5open -3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-10-01NO 4open -0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-10-11NO 5open +0independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-10-21NO 5open -2independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-09-11NO 4open +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50
08-31 14:57v82Qwen 3.9+ (Alibaba Qwen) release date :: Before 2026-09-21NO 4open +3independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50

52 trades, 441 staked, realised -100, open -28 if held / -33 if sold.

52 answer-bets across 8 markets for 441 mana; realised -100 on 23 settled. Largest single market: 9 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:12Z.