The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 07:25 | v82 | Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? | YES 100 | open -63 | down-fade: single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 07:25 | v82 | Will WTI crude oil close at or below $65 before October 1, 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.23->0.07; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 07:16 | v82 | Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026? | YES 100 | open -77 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.67->0.21; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 06:51 | v82 | Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad? | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.71->0.34; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 05:47 | v82 | Will Liv Golf shut down in 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 53-mana NO bet pushed 0.57->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 19:03 | v82 | ZIpAEhsQyh | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.27; market not in cache |
| 08-31 11:13 | v82 | Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026? | YES 18 | open +1 | down-fade: single 104-mana NO bet pushed 0.52->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 11:13 | v82 | Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00 | YES 18 | open +1 | down-fade: single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.97->0.61; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 01:34 | v82 | TONIGHT WE STEAL THE MOON | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.43->0.18; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
9 trades, 252 staked, realised -18, open -121 if held / -138 if sold, 4 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:12Z.