A multiple-choice market lists its answers at about 0.50 each, and answers that resolve independently come in nearer 38%. So this module buys NO across the answers of a brand-new market, up to 150 mana per market. The bet is per answer, which is exactly where the risk hides: a market's answers are often settled by one event on one day, and then a dozen small bets are one big bet wearing a dozen costumes.
A market marked in warning colour took six or more answers. Read those as a single position: the per-market cap limits the stake, not the number of ways one event can decide it. Each chip is one answer at the price it opened; the card's tail names the version that placed the bets.
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash/Flash-Lite | NO 11 | settled +8 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Deepseek V4.x Pro/Lite | NO 11 | open +8 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro | NO 11 | open +7 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Kimi K3.x (or any Moonshot AI model) | NO 11 | open -4 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Claude Opus/Sonnet/Haiku 5.x | NO 11 | open -10 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Muse Spark 1.x (or any Meta model) | NO 11 | settled +9 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Claude Fable 5.x | NO 11 | settled -11 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model) | NO 11 | open -1 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model) | NO 11 | open +6 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 20:16 | v81 | September 2026 AI model releases :: GPT-5.7 | NO 11 | settled -11 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.399 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 25 | NO 22 | open +16 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 30 | NO 22 | open +17 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 35 | NO 0 | unfilled | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 5 | NO 22 | open -8 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 10 | NO 22 | open +4 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 15 | NO 22 | open +11 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
| 08-30 13:02 | v81 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 20 | NO 22 | open +14 | independent MC answers at ~0.5 opens resolve YES ~0.353 for this type; open 0.50 |
17 trades, 235 staked, realised -3, open +65 if held / +60 if sold, 1 unfilled.
17 answer-bets across 2 markets for
235 mana; realised -3 on 4
settled. Largest single market: 10 answers.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.