Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 51 | 2,368 | -348.9 (14 settled) | +62.2 | -189.2 | -5.62 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 13:09 | v81 | yhShEEcpzL | NO 85 | open -15 | fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana YES bet pushed 0.32->0.50; market not in cache |
| 09-03 13:05 | v81 | SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, pape | NO 85 | open +36 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 12:16 | v81 | Will GPT6 release before GTA6? | NO 22 | settled -20 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 17:34 | v81 | Will GPT6 release before GTA6? | NO 18 | open -17 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.83; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 17:10 | v81 | Will an American man reach the 2026 US Open men's singles semifinals? | NO 85 | settled +41 | fade: single 67-mana YES bet pushed 0.47->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 17:09 | v81 | GPT-6 released in 2026? | NO 29 | settled -25 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.76->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:45 | v81 | Will GPT-6 be released before January 1, 2027? | NO 2 | open -2 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:34 | v81 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | NO 45 | settled -48 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.14->0.45; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:27 | v81 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | NO 131 | settled -131 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.08->0.62; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 16:19 | v81 | Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:24 | v81 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | NO 19 | settled -20 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.66; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 14:09 | v81 | 8UhpUgQZL0 | NO 85 | open -5 | fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.40; market not in cache |
| 09-02 13:08 | v81 | Will the Republicans Gain Maine´s 2nd Congressional District in 2026 | NO 11 | open +1 | fade: single 64-mana YES bet pushed 0.59->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 11:28 | v81 | Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? | NO 45 | open -21 | fade: single 84-mana YES bet pushed 0.53->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 11:28 | v81 | Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? | NO 64 | open -28 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.63->0.78; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 07:22 | v81 | Will Brett Smiley win the 2026 Democratic primary for Mayor of Providence? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 188-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.49; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 06:48 | v81 | Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th? | NO 45 | settled -43 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.22->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 04:45 | v81 | Will Waymo One expand its SF Bay Area service area to Marin County by December 31, 2026? | NO 115 | open -39 | fade: single 2250-mana YES bet pushed 0.43->0.55; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 04:41 | v81 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026? | NO 29 | settled -24 | fade: single 75-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 04:23 | v81 | Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday? | NO 2 | open +0 | fade: single 200-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 03:55 | v81 | Will Usopp unlock conquerors Haki on Elbaf? | NO 45 | open +25 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.30->0.57; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 23:37 | v81 | Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the next Governor of Ohio? | NO 45 | open +52 | fade: single 800-mana YES bet pushed 0.48->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 23:08 | v81 | Will September 2026 headline PCE inflation be at least 0.3% month-over-month? | NO 45 | open -19 | fade: single 55-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.58; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 22:11 | v81 | Openai Astra publically available before September 7th 2026 | NO 45 | settled +6 | fade: single 160-mana YES bet pushed 0.40->0.67; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 19:31 | v81 | Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election? | NO 16 | open -3 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.73->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 16:20 | v81 | Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? | NO 16 | open -7 | fade: single 90-mana YES bet pushed 0.67->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 16:18 | v81 | Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 65 or higher on September 30, 2026? | NO 66 | open -64 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 15:18 | v81 | Will the Texas Rangers sweep the Tampa Bay Rays OR will the 4-game series total 27 or more runs? | NO 115 | settled -117 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.63->0.77; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 13:57 | v81 | Will Glosso have over 10000 total users by EOY 2026? | NO 85 | open -15 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 13:34 | v81 | Will Keir Starmer lose his seat at the next general election? | NO 11 | open -10 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.69->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 13:34 | v81 | QqzzA8R8Cl | NO 40 | open -35 | fade (blind, verify after): single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.58->0.93; market not in cache |
| 09-01 13:21 | v81 | At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Are | NO 133 | open -94 | fade: single 230-mana YES bet pushed 0.31->0.90; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 05:20 | v81 | Will Lionel Messi be with Inter Miami at the end of 2027? | NO 17 | open -6 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.44->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 05:17 | v81 | ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026? | NO 85 | open +4 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.18->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 02:38 | v81 | Will there be a Fire/Fairy Pokemon released by the end of 2029? | NO 17 | open -5 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 02:21 | v81 | Will the CDC report twice as many measles cases in 2026 as 2025? | NO 15 | open -11 | fade: single 110-mana YES bet pushed 0.67->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 02:08 | v81 | Will we get ASI before 2031? | NO 85 | open +26 | fade: single 393-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.40; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 22:01 | v81 | roon (@tszzl) leaves OpenAI before July 2027? | NO 13 | open +12 | fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.52->0.70; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 21:32 | v81 | 6zUSqdsNU6 | NO 45 | settled -3 | fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.80; market not in cache |
| 08-31 20:10 | v81 | Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2 | NO 26 | open -8 | fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.45->0.58; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 19:38 | v81 | Will Jacob Wear Shorts Tomorrow (9/1)? | NO 7 | settled +54 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 19:31 | v81 | Week 2 EPL- Aston Villa vs Arsenal (August 31 2026) Will Arsenal WIN @ Aston Villa? | NO 0 | unfilled | fade: single 223-mana YES bet pushed 0.51->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 15:34 | v81 | Gender of Bonnie Blues kid | NO 88 | open -21 | fade: single 240-mana YES bet pushed 0.50->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 13:18 | v81 | t5enHrZF3UNSPGvkkeUO | NO 150 | open +62 | fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.10->0.53; market not in cache |
| 08-31 11:59 | v81 | Will Lindsay Clancy be convicted of murder of her 3 children? | NO 85 | open +57 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.38->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 01:25 | v81 | Will Destiny sue anyone? | NO 45 | open +11 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.55->0.81; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 23:40 | v81 | Will Canada retaliate and impose tariffs against the US by Sept 15 | NO 3 | settled -16 | fade: single 120-mana YES bet pushed 0.79->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 23:21 | v81 | CdyzQLQ8hs | NO 52 | open -33 | fade (blind, verify after): single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.75->0.88; market not in cache |
| 08-30 23:16 | v81 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | NO 30 | open -1 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.72->0.95; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 20:00 | v81 | Will Donald Trump and Narendra Modi meet in person in year 2026? | NO 23 | open -18 | fade: single 255-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.95; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 11:25 | v81 | Will the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope lift off before September 1, 2026? | NO 3 | settled -3 | fade: single 150-mana YES bet pushed 0.79->0.92; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
51 trades, 2,368 staked, realised -349, open +62 if held / -189 if sold, 3 unfilled.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 2,368 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.