close‑collector

module 1.0 · v81 ← trader

A market that is still a heavy favourite with hours left has very little time left to be wrong. This module works the last 24 hours of a market's life and takes the side the clock favours: buy YES at 0.90–0.97, buy NO at 0.03–0.15. Nothing in the middle, and nothing whose price is just an untouched ante.

The closing window

0.90–0.970.03–0.1524h12hcloseWill Alex remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.05 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Joe and Seth remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.07 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Mary Smith remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Miguel Sánchez remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.04 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Zanda Zhu remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.95 with 12.2h left (traded)Will JasonMendoza2008 remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.94 with 12.2h left (traded)Will draaglom remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Tripping remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.09 with 12.2h left (traded)Will DP remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.94 with 12.2h left (traded)Will chris (strutheo) remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.96 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Toward a theory of everything remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.06 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Daniel Tello remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.09 with 12.2h left (traded)Will Simon remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.96 with 12.2h left (traded)US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026? 0.07 with 10.6h left (traded)Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st? 0.10 with 9.6h left (traded)Will Ziddletwix remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.90 with 8.2h left (traded)Will Jesse remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.05 with 7.7h left (traded)Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 2026? 0.09 with 6.2h left (traded)Will Christopher Randles remain in Masters after Season 40? 0.90 with 4.6h left (traded)🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? 0.07 with 4.6h left (traded)🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026? 0.06 with 4.6h left (traded)Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? 0.06 with 4.6h left (traded)Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on August 31, 2026? 0.05 with 4.6h left (traded)Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load apps 0.91 with 16.6h left (traded)GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st? 0.11 with 16.6h left (traded)By end of 2026, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court? 0.05 with 20.6h left (traded)Will Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production fall below 80 kt on August 31, 2026? 0.06 with 20.6h left (traded)Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on August 31, 2026? 0.07 with 20.6h left (traded)Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 60 kt on August 31, 2026? 0.03 with 20.6h left (traded)Will territory change hands between Georgia (in the Caucasus) and separatists/Russia before Sep 2026 0.03 with 21.6h left (traded)Will it be possible to acquire or assemble a Framework laptop with a trackpoint? 0.07 with 21.6h left (traded)Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026? 0.06 with 19.7h left (traded)Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026? 0.04 with 18.7h left (traded)Will the Liberal-National Coalition lead One Nation in the polls at the end of August 2026? 0.07 with 9.6h left (traded)tung tung tung sahur dies by the end of the month 0.05 with 19.7h left (traded)Will Iran and US actually cease fire before September 2026? 0.07 with 16.6h left (traded)Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1? 0.05 with 16.1h left (traded)Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026] 0.05 with 16.1h left (traded)Will temperatures in Berlin, Germany, reach 40°C this summer? 0.03 with 16.1h left (traded)Trump proclaims a 'Straight Pride month' by August 2026? 0.03 with 11.5h left (traded)[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026? 0.07 with 10.1h left (traded)Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in August 2026? 0.04 with 7.7h left (traded)METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before September 0.10 with 6.5h left (traded)Any new Claude or GPT before end of August 2026? 0.14 with 6.0h left (traded)Will SPY's August 2026 closing price be higher than its August 2026 opening price? 0.94 with 1.4h left (traded)Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of August 0.06 with 4.6h left (traded)Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus Cup 0.12 with 4.1h left (traded)Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September? 0.13 with 4.1h left (traded)Will Iran strike US military base at least once in August? 0.96 with 3.6h left (traded)Week 2 EPL- Aston Villa vs Arsenal (August 31 2026) Will Arsenal WIN @ Aston Villa? 0.95 with 3.1h left (traded)Will weights for Muse Spark 1.2 be released by end of August 2026? 0.05 with 3.1h left (traded)Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026? 0.10 with 2.6h left (traded)Will Romania have a new Government by the end of August? 0.08 with 2.2h left (traded)Will the UK experience at least one named storm in August 2026? 0.08 with 2.2h left (traded)Will Alvarez join barca this summer 0.09 with 2.2h left (traded)Will Google publicly release Gemini 3.5 Pro before September 1, 2026? 0.04 with 1.0h left (traded)Will US 50% tariffs on Canada still be in effect next monday? 0.93 with 1.0h left (traded)Will Venezuela officially announce and schedule early presidential elections to be held before September 1, 2026? 0.06 with 1.0h left (traded)Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding? 0.14 with 3.8h left (traded)Will Anthropic release a newer Claude Sonnet model before September 1, 2026? 0.05 with 6.5h left (traded)Gemini 3.5 Flash trades for a profit by the end of the month? 0.04 with 6.5h left (traded)Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week of her passing 0.06 with 20.2h left (traded)Will Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising contain a magical girl first introduced in Magia Record? 0.04 with 21.6h left (traded)Will the worlds installed power generation from nuclear sources in 2025 be more than 3000 TWh ? 0.09 with 21.6h left (traded)Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026? 0.05 with 21.6h left (traded)Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026 0.05 with 23.5h left (traded)Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025? 0.11 with 23.0h left (traded)Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st? 0.11 with 21.6h left (traded)Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline? 0.07 with 21.6h left (traded)Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026? 0.04 with 22.6h left (traded)Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip? 0.11 with 23.5h left (traded)WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win? 0.04 with 23.8h left (traded)No-one ever got fired for buying charmm36m, still true by Sept 2026 0.15 with 10.6h left (traded)Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023? 0.90 with 9.6h left (traded)Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)? 0.14 with 13.0h left (traded)Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window? 0.05 with 23.5h left (traded)Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup) 0.05 with 23.8h left (traded)Will Alcaraz win the next round at the US open? C.Alcaraz vs J.Faria 0.93 with 21.6h left (traded)Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI? 0.03 with 24.0h left (traded)Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash? 0.04 with 23.5h left (traded)Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? 0.06 with 23.8h left (traded)Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000? 0.06 with 23.8h left (traded)

Time runs toward the close on the right-hand end, because that is the direction opportunity moves here: a market enters this module's world by running out of time, not by changing price. Dots outside the two lanes were seen and left alone. 83 trades from the book at their price and hours-to-close when placed, ringed.

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

No decisions traced by this version.

The book · v81

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-03 12:34v81Will the August 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-03 12:34v81Will August 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 18:31v81Did Something Happen with GLM-5.3 Flash?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 13:31v81Will we finally pull ourselves together and avoid being wiped out by AI?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 11:30v81Will Alcaraz win the next round at the US open? C.Alcaraz vs J.FariaYES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-02 07:29v81Will Dylan Matthew beat Community Prediction (Metaculus Summer Cup)NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-02 00:28v81Will Julian Alvarez be sold to Barcelona by the end of the summer transfer window?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 17:57v81Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)?NO 25open +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 13:27v81Will the percent of Pakistanis in extreme poverty be above 5 percent in 2023?YES 25settled +3favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-01 11:27v81No-one ever got fired for buying charmm36m, still true by Sept 2026NO 25settled +4longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 09:56v81WPlace Colors vs Void: Which side will win?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 07:26v81Will Uber raise the default minimum suggested tip?NO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 04:25v81Will Jair Bolsonaro run for the Senate in 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 02:25v81Will the silver spot price be above $75 USD on September 1st?NO 25settled +60longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 02:25v81Will Pentagon reverse course on Anthropic before September 2, 2026 deadline?NO 25settled +4longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:55v81Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?NO 25open -2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Will the DC Circuit rule for Anthropic on the merits in the Pentagon supply chain case by Aug 31, 2026?NO 25open +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Anglo American & Teck Resources merge by Sep 1, 2026NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Gemini 3.5 Flash trades for a profit by the end of the month?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Trump says or posts something deprecating about Dolly Parton within a week of her passingNO 25settled +30longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Will Puella Magi Madoka Magica: Walpurgisnacht Rising contain a magical girl first introduced in Magia Record?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Will the worlds installed power generation from nuclear sources in 2025 be more than 3000 TWh ?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?NO 25open +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
09-01 00:25v81Will Anthropic release a newer Claude Sonnet model before September 1, 2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:55v81Will Venezuela officially announce and schedule early presidential elections to be held before September 1, 20NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:55v81Will Google publicly release Gemini 3.5 Pro before September 1, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 22:55v81Will US 50% tariffs on Canada still be in effect next monday?YES 7settled +73favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-31 21:55v81Will Alvarez join barca this summerNO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 21:55v81Will Romania have a new Government by the end of August?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 21:55v81Will the UK experience at least one named storm in August 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 21:25v81Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 20:54v81Week 2 EPL- Aston Villa vs Arsenal (August 31 2026) Will Arsenal WIN @ Aston Villa?YES 25settled +1favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-31 20:54v81Will weights for Muse Spark 1.2 be released by end of August 2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 20:24v81Will Iran strike US military base at least once in August?YES 25settled +52favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-31 19:54v81Will a Manifolder win the Summer Metaculus CupNO 25settled +5longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 19:54v81Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?NO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 19:24v81Trump orders mandatory AI predeployment evals by end of AugustNO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 18:24v81Will SPY's August 2026 closing price be higher than its August 2026 opening price?YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-31 17:54v81Any new Claude or GPT before end of August 2026?NO 25settled +4longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 17:24v81METR 80% time horizon exceeds 10h before SeptemberNO 25open +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 16:24v81Will Rob Miles say the word "Fable" in a Rational Animations video published in August 2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 13:53v81[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 12:23v81Trump proclaims a 'Straight Pride month' by August 2026?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 07:52v81Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by SepNO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 07:52v81Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 07:52v81Will temperatures in Berlin, Germany, reach 40°C this summer?NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 07:22v81Will Iran and US actually cease fire before September 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 04:21v81tung tung tung sahur dies by the end of the monthNO 25settled +10longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 04:21v81Will the Liberal-National Coalition lead One Nation in the polls at the end of August 2026?NO 25settled +2longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 03:21v81Will the US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by August 31, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 02:21v81Will the US complete withdrawal of 5,000+ troops from Germany by August 31, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 00:21v81Will it be possible to acquire or assemble a Framework laptop with a trackpoint?NO 25open -3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 00:21v81By end of 2026, will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 00:21v81Will Jinbaobao's trailing twelve months (TTM) tin production fall below 80 kt on August 31, 2026?NO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 00:21v81Will Jinbaobao's TTM tin production fall below 40 kt on August 31, 2026?NO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 00:21v81Will Jinbaobao's tin production fall below 60 kt on August 31, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-31 00:21v81Will territory change hands between Georgia (in the Caucasus) and separatists/Russia before Sep 2026NO 25settled +1longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 23:20v81GOOG > AMD at market close on August 31st?NO 25settled +3longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 23:20v81Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 200 USD/kg on August 31, 2026?NO 25open -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 23:20v81Will Sm metal (Western) spot price exceed 100 USD/kg on August 31, 2026?NO 25open +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 23:20v81Will Android succeed in making it harder to side-load appsYES 25open +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 19:20v81🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 19:20v81🚢 Will Iran and Oman reach an agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?NO 25settled +8longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 18:19v81Will Christopher Randles remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 17:49v81Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 202NO 25settled +9longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 15:19v81Will Jesse remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled -0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 14:49v81Will Ziddletwix remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +2favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 14:19v81Will Anthropic release a system card of a model at a new frontier of intellegence by August 31st?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 13:19v81US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will Simon remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 10:48v81Will Toward a theory of everything remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will Daniel Tello remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will Tripping remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will DP remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will Chad remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 10:48v81Will chris (strutheo) remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 10:48v81Will Mary Smith remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will Miguel Sánchez remain in Masters after Season 40?NO 25settled +0longshot band 0.03-0.15 within 24h of close resolves NO 95%
08-30 10:48v81Will Zanda Zhu remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
08-30 10:48v81Will JasonMendoza2008 remain in Masters after Season 40?YES 25settled +0favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%

Showing the newest 80 of 83 trades.

83 trades, 2,057 staked, realised +312, open +5 if held / +4 if sold.

83 collected for 2,057 mana, of which 14 on the favourite side. The band edges matter more than the stake: this module is buying near-certainty, so a single wrong one costs several right ones.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.