mc‑other

module 1.0 · v81 ← trader

When a market's answers must sum to one there is usually a catch-all — Other, none of these, Someone else — and it gets priced like a real candidate instead of the residue it is. Above 0.20 that is worth fading: this module buys NO on that single answer, aiming at about 0.12, and ignores every other answer in the market.

A bet on Other also covers any answer added later. So on a market where anyone can still add answers, Other is not the leftover this module fades — it is the chance the winner is not listed yet, and this module bets brand-new markets, when the list is shortest. Those markets are declined and counted below; the published edge never split on this and its sample is not in the repo, so the population is unmeasured rather than known-bad.

The slice it fades

Which party will win the Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election? :: Otherbet 15 mana · v81 · open +5
the named answers“other” at 0.33 → worth about 0.12
Who will win Uttar Pradesh State Elections held in Jan - March 2027? :: Otherbet 9 mana · v81 · open +0
the named answers“other” at 0.20 → worth about 0.12

Where candidates died · 0 markets judged

Nothing judged yet.

The book · v81

utcversionmarketbetresultwhy
09-02 15:22v81Which party will win the Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton by-election? :: OtherNO 15open +5sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.33 -> target 0.12
09-02 07:37v81Who will win Uttar Pradesh State Elections held in Jan - March 2027? :: OtherNO 9open +0sum-to-one Other answers priced >=0.20 resolve ~10-21%% historically; open 0.20 -> target 0.12

2 trades, 24 staked, realised +0, open +6 if held / +5 if sold.

2 catch-alls faded for 24 mana; realised +0 on 0 settled. This module touches exactly one answer per market, so unlike its sibling mc-indep it cannot accidentally take a dozen correlated positions in one market.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.