The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 06:21 | v81 | Will a soccer final between Spain and Argentina be repeated before 2027? | YES 15 | open -1 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.59->0.35; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 02:15 | v81 | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? | YES 8 | settled +3 | down-fade: single 55-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 02:15 | v81 | NFL Week 1: Will the Los Angeles Rams beat the San Francisco 49ers by 4 or more points? | YES 7 | settled +6 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.51->0.31; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-03 01:25 | v81 | qzAQ9p28Ih | YES 28 | open -14 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.31; market not in cache |
| 09-02 23:25 | v81 | EPL: Draw No Bet: Will Manchester United FC beat Everton FC? | YES 18 | cancelled | down-fade: single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.88->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 19:35 | v81 | cZ6qsnNI2l | YES 1 | open -0 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.37->0.21; market not in cache |
| 09-02 18:51 | v81 | MLB: Will the Boston Red Sox sweep the Kansas City Royals OR will the 3-game series total 30 or more runs? | YES 1 | settled -1 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.26; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:28 | v81 | Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026? | YES 7 | open -3 | down-fade: single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.30->0.10; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:26 | v81 | Will GPT-6 be released before the end of October 2026? | YES 0 | settled -0 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.33->0.17; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:21 | v81 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | YES 14 | settled -15 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.37; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 15:11 | v81 | nU8zNAEhqZ | YES 18 | open -11 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.10; market not in cache |
| 09-02 14:55 | v81 | GPT-6 released in 2026? | YES 5 | settled -4 | down-fade: single 250-mana NO bet pushed 0.74->0.59; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:47 | v81 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade: single 70-mana NO bet pushed 0.76->0.39; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:46 | v81 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | YES 28 | settled -30 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.35->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:30 | v81 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | YES 8 | settled +2 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.62->0.42; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 07:47 | v81 | sn2tt9lpOg | YES 86 | open -31 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; market not in cache |
| 09-02 03:26 | v81 | Will Joby Aviation start operating any aircraft commercially before the end of 2026? | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade: single 1800-mana NO bet pushed 0.42->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 00:21 | v81 | Netherlands raises standard naturalization residency requirement to ≥10 years by Dec 31, 2026? | YES 18 | open -13 | down-fade: single 1250-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 23:29 | v81 | Will iron-air battery additions (15m trailing, 3m lag) exceed 0.8 GWh by Sep 2026? | YES 13 | open -10 | down-fade: single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.55->0.30; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 16:09 | v81 | 🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.44->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 15:02 | v81 | Will the November 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.5%? | YES 28 | open -12 | down-fade: single 110-mana NO bet pushed 0.32->0.14; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 14:41 | v81 | QKsZI1M2fWEUpqmRdyBi | YES 2 | open -0 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 300-mana NO bet pushed 0.22->0.05; market not in cache |
| 09-01 13:19 | v81 | Will a playable build of Grand Theft Auto VI leak before November 1, 2026? | YES 7 | open +0 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.53->0.32; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 09:47 | v81 | Will Liv Golf shut down in 2026? | YES 10 | settled +41 | down-fade: single 78-mana NO bet pushed 0.39->0.16; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 07:25 | v81 | Will the full AD/CVD case on Russian palladium result in a duty order by Oct 31, 2026? | YES 100 | open -93 | down-fade: single 2000-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 07:25 | v81 | Will WTI crude oil close at or below $65 before October 1, 2026? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.23->0.07; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 07:16 | v81 | Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026? | YES 100 | open -96 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.67->0.21; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 06:51 | v81 | Will Gukesh be board 1 for India at Olympiad? | YES 18 | settled +7 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.71->0.34; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 05:47 | v81 | Will Liv Golf shut down in 2026? | YES 18 | settled +71 | down-fade: single 53-mana NO bet pushed 0.57->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-01 03:11 | v81 | Will marijuana be federally descheduled from a Schedule 1 illegal drug in the USA before the end of 4/20 2027? | YES 3 | open -0 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.29; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 20:51 | v81 | 96CURIACOh | YES 28 | open -12 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 70-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.26; market not in cache |
| 08-31 19:03 | v81 | Will Netanyahu lose the election and run away to Miami? | YES 8 | open -5 | down-fade: single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.27; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 14:27 | v81 | pHVamhqgkAfTI2pxBMIw | YES 5 | open +3 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.59->0.41; market not in cache |
| 08-31 11:13 | v81 | Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026? | YES 18 | open -1 | down-fade: single 104-mana NO bet pushed 0.52->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-31 11:13 | v81 | Will Guadians starting pitcher Gavin Williams finish the 2026 MLB regular season with an ERA below 4.00 | YES 18 | open +1 | down-fade: single 62-mana NO bet pushed 0.97->0.61; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 20:00 | v81 | Will Xi JingPing and Volodymyr Zelensky meet in person in year 2026? | YES 14 | open -1 | down-fade: single 172-mana NO bet pushed 0.33->0.10; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-30 19:27 | v81 | tVVL5NwDD9NzFRimOqNK | YES 8 | open -1 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.31->0.11; market not in cache |
| 08-30 19:19 | v81 | psLssQztZ9 | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.24->0.08; market not in cache |
| 08-30 18:24 | v81 | ZQzhUtql6y | YES 70 | open -43 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 109-mana NO bet pushed 0.80->0.28; market not in cache |
| 08-30 16:40 | v81 | cE9K0ZfASo1o8eG6JWzh | YES 28 | open +6 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.55->0.32; market not in cache |
| 08-30 14:05 | v81 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | YES 18 | settled +4 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.65->0.39; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
41 trades, 805 staked, realised +65, open -249 if held / -338 if sold, 3 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.