trader-agent

P&L, every version, from a moment you choose

open positions at today's odds, no exit since 3 days ago · prod -

Every line starts at zero from the moment you pick (the vertical rule), so the chart answers one question: since then, who made money. A version that began later starts at zero when it appears. Drag the slider or use a preset; nothing reaches further back than the series. Every point is what was true when it was sampled, never today's mark applied backwards. Paper arms are dashed and drawn at prod's stake. The dotted line is prod's equity from Manifold's own books, rebased the same way, and the shaded band is how far our marks are from theirs. Series since 2026-08-25 09:21Z.

Modules of v89 · its own trades only

A promotion starts an empty record. What earlier versions did is on their own pages, below.

down-fadelive

+189 / +271

0bets by entry price1

bets: 21
staked: 390
settled: 4/5 won
realised: +168
open (13) sold: +22
open (13) held: +103
return sold: +49%
return held: +70%

close-longlive

+104 / +104

Longshots at 0.03-0.15 inside 24h of close resolve NO about 95% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 6
staked: 150
settled: 5/5 won
realised: +104
open (1) sold: +0
open (1) held: +0
return sold: +69%
return held: +69%

whale-fadelive

+59 / +150

A single 100+ mana YES bet that pushes a mid-life market up 5+ points is overconfident on average; fades it.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 33
staked: 1,518
settled: 2/3 won
realised: +211
open (28) sold: -152
open (28) held: -61
return sold: +4%
return held: +10%

close-favlive

+13 / +13

Favourites at 0.90-0.97 inside 24h of close resolve YES about 99% of the time.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 6
staked: 150
settled: 3/3 won
realised: +12
open (3) sold: +0
open (3) held: +1
return sold: +8%
return held: +9%

mc-otherlive

+1 / +1

The catch-all 'Other' answer in winner-take-all markets is overpriced above 0.20; buys NO toward 0.12.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 1
staked: 9
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (1) sold: +1
open (1) held: +1
return sold: +11%
return held: +12%

open-snipelive

-3 / +15

Bets a brand-new untraded market from its opening price toward the historical resolution rate of its cell (type x price x horizon x ante).

0bets by entry price1

bets: 24
staked: 304
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (23) sold: -3
open (23) held: +15
return sold: -1%
return held: +5%

mc-indeplive

-30 / -24

Independent multiple-choice answers listed at creation resolve YES far less often than their 0.50 opens imply.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 45
staked: 170
settled: none settled yet
realised: +0
open (45) sold: -30
open (45) held: -24
return sold: -18%
return held: -14%

codex-openlive

-41 / +194

A price-blind language-model estimate on each new market; bets only when it disagrees with the price by more than the configured edge.

0bets by entry price1

bets: 62
staked: 2,572
settled: 3/8 won
realised: -157
open (50) sold: +116
open (50) held: +351
return sold: -2%
return held: +8%

codex-swingoff

no fills

Exit policy for codex-open positions.

disabled in this version's config

event-makeroff

no fills

Quotes both sides of busy event markets and collects the spread.

disabled in this version's config

numeric-tailshadow

no fills

Buys the lowest bucket of a new numeric or date market.

judged 262 markets, placed nothing

park-nolive

no fills

Parks idle mana as NO in stale mid-priced books instead of leaving it in cash.

judged 140 markets, placed nothing

Candidates now

Each paper sim against prod over the sim's own window, de-scaled to prod's stake. The verdict is the canary's, not the page's. All of them, with the fidelity twin.

The lineage

One row per version, prod eras and paper sims, each its own record and its own page. Real mana solid, paper dashed.

version	mana	status · window	bets	staked	realised	open held	open sold	per day
v89	real	live in prod 2026-09-19 16:42Z → running	198	5,263	+338	+387	-46	+249.2
v88	real	retired, book still settling 2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z	1117	30,685	+928	+4026	+1242	+307.1
v81	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z	393	13,334	+1646	+754	-3	+577.8
v80	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z	26	595	+7	-1	-6	+11.3
v78	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z	11	411	+25	-47	-71	-242.6
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v77	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z	5	247	-18	-32	-52	-985.7
v76	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z	10	298	+320	+0	+0	+13115.0
v75	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z	13	218	+149	+0	+0	+1479.0
v74	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z	12	128	+23	-14	-22	+89.3
v73	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z	10	250	+3	+2	+1	+616.5
v72	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z	5	125	+2	+1	+1	+343.1
v71	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z	5	125	+2	+2	+2	+553.2
v70	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z	9	150	-9	+8	+8	-3.0
v67	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z	27	475	-108	+40	+21	-72.3
v66	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z	2	50	+1	+0	-0	+36.5
v65	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z	18	253	+340	+3	-3	+753.4
v64	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z	9	227	+36	-64	-72	-69.3
v63	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	3	75	+5	-3	-5	+36.5
v62	real	retired, book still settling 2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z	3	69	+5	+3	+2	+224.9
v89-twin	paper	evaluating 2026-09-19 16:43Z → running	175	3,452	+25	+1290	+722	+452.1
codex-paper	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z	1	40	+0	+13	+4	-
v88-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z	1412	26,687	+1027	+5797	+2451	+430.8
v87	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z	54	952	-375	+95	-2	-438.9
v86	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z	539	13,928	+1183	+3452	+1063	+654.0
v85	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z	21	849	+775	+114	-7	+7461.3
v84	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z	46	350	-40	+42	+18	+5.7
v83	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z	646	11,605	+727	+2862	+837	+533.8
v82	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z	177	3,963	+247	+167	-2	+279.2
v80-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z	28	650	+61	+43	+20	+259.9
v77-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z	15	400	-116	+170	+54	+723.9
v75-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z	16	474	-200	+35	-4	-1880.5
v72-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z	11	250	+26	+20	+5	+532.6
v70-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z	6	140	+2	+8	+8	+1241.1
v68	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z	73	2,211	+410	+330	+249	+335.1
v67-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z	32	792	+239	+112	+80	+365.9
v65-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z	17	238	-57	+16	+10	-159.6
v64-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z	13	334	+34	-51	-58	-41.4
v63-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z	5	347	+3	+22	+5	+11001.8
v62-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z	6	310	+3	+24	+13	+1336.9
v60-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z	2	50	+3	+0	+0	+109728.0
v59-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z	3	84	+0	+11	+1	+460637.2
v58-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z	13	391	-67	+13	-11	-190.2
v57-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z	2	8	+0	+12	+4	+626.0
v56-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z	3	110	+0	+75	+49	+11809.4
v55-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z	5	101	+1	+78	+55	+6374.5
v53-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z	4	70	+22	+5	-2	+6307.7
v50-twin	paper	retired: prod-moved 2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z	5	121	+34	+28	+21	+2885.8
v45	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z	8	605	-86	+8	-41	-3429.4
v44	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z	7	365	+15	-6	-32	+5636.0
v41	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z	9	656	-481	+3	-5	-3573.8
v39	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z	1	100	-100	+0	+0	-3092.3
v38	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z	3	212	-12	+27	+15	+973.2
v37	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z	1	28	+0	+14	+12	+37215.2
v35	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z	6	184	+57	+29	+23	+14065.5
v34	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z	1	131	+57	+0	+0	+258245.1
v20	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z	3	203	-10	+94	+90	+2187.4
v16	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z	15	375	-96	+4	+0	-4042.7
v15	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z	9	250	-77	-26	-26	-111952.5
v14	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z	7	222	-74	-4	-4	-86088.4
v13	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z	8	227	-71	-4	-4	-87939.7
v12	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z	8	222	-67	-4	-4	-92033.7
v11	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z	359	10,830	+1707	+1497	+502	+506.1
v10	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z	30	907	+216	+257	+189	+951.0
v9	paper	retired: window-complete 2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z	327	7,435	+2028	+973	+411	+485.3
v8	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z	16	400	+76	+8	+3	+1010.6
v7	paper	retired: superseded-same-day 2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z	6	120	+96	+94	+33	+517.8

version

mana

status · window

bets

staked

realised

open held

open sold

per day

v89

real

live in prod
2026-09-19 16:42Z → running

198

5,263

+338

+387

-46

+249.2

v88

real

retired, book still settling
2026-09-03 13:36Z → 2026-09-19 16:42Z

1117

30,685

+928

+4026

+1242

+307.1

v81

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-30 09:55Z → 2026-09-03 13:36Z

393

13,334

+1646

+754

-3

+577.8

v80

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 19:42Z → 2026-08-30 09:55Z

595

-1

-6

+11.3

v78

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 17:15Z → 2026-08-29 19:28Z

411

+25

-47

-71

-242.6

v77

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z

247

-18

-32

-52

-985.7

v77

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 16:03Z → 2026-08-29 17:15Z

247

-18

-32

-52

-985.7

v76

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 15:27Z → 2026-08-29 16:02Z

298

+320

+13115.0

v75

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 13:01Z → 2026-08-29 15:27Z

218

+149

+1479.0

v74

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:35Z → 2026-08-29 13:01Z

128

+23

-14

-22

+89.3

v73

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:24Z → 2026-08-29 10:35Z

250

+616.5

v72

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:24Z

125

+343.1

v71

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 10:03Z → 2026-08-29 10:12Z

125

+553.2

v70

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-29 06:12Z → 2026-08-29 10:03Z

150

-9

-3.0

v67

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-28 07:38Z → 2026-08-29 06:12Z

475

-108

+40

+21

-72.3

v66

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-28 06:43Z → 2026-08-28 07:38Z

-0

+36.5

v65

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-27 19:48Z → 2026-08-28 06:43Z

253

+340

-3

+753.4

v64

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 19:48Z

227

+36

-64

-72

-69.3

v63

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-27 08:12Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z

-3

-5

+36.5

v62

real

retired, book still settling
2026-08-27 07:18Z → 2026-08-27 08:12Z

+224.9

v89-twin

paper

evaluating
2026-09-19 16:43Z → running

175

3,452

+25

+1290

+722

+452.1

codex-paper

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-08-22 19:49Z → 2026-08-22 19:49Z

+13

v88-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-09-03 16:10Z → 2026-09-19 12:21Z

1412

26,687

+1027

+5797

+2451

+430.8

v87

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-03 00:02Z → 2026-09-03 15:21Z

952

-375

+95

-2

-438.9

v86

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-09-02 13:27Z → 2026-09-09 15:32Z

539

13,928

+1183

+3452

+1063

+654.0

v85

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 10:16Z → 2026-09-02 13:08Z

849

+775

+114

-7

+7461.3

v84

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-09-02 02:00Z → 2026-09-02 08:22Z

350

-40

+42

+18

+5.7

v83

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-09-01 10:09Z → 2026-09-08 03:32Z

646

11,605

+727

+2862

+837

+533.8

v82

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-08-30 22:07Z → 2026-09-01 09:44Z

177

3,963

+247

+167

-2

+279.2

v80-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 22:05Z → 2026-08-30 07:42Z

650

+61

+43

+20

+259.9

v77-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 16:04Z → 2026-08-29 17:52Z

400

-116

+170

+54

+723.9

v75-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 13:31Z → 2026-08-29 15:38Z

474

-200

+35

-4

-1880.5

v72-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 10:14Z → 2026-08-29 12:19Z

250

+26

+20

+532.6

v70-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-29 08:17Z → 2026-08-29 08:29Z

140

+1241.1

v68

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-08-28 13:52Z → 2026-08-30 18:48Z

2,211

+410

+330

+249

+335.1

v67-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-28 08:16Z → 2026-08-29 07:19Z

792

+239

+112

+80

+365.9

v65-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 20:15Z → 2026-08-28 02:27Z

238

-57

+16

+10

-159.6

v64-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:07Z → 2026-08-27 20:07Z

334

+34

-51

-58

-41.4

v63-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 08:14Z → 2026-08-27 08:18Z

347

+22

+11001.8

v62-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 07:20Z → 2026-08-27 07:48Z

310

+24

+13

+1336.9

v60-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-27 10:06Z → 2026-08-27 10:06Z

+109728.0

v59-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 20:46Z → 2026-08-26 20:46Z

+11

+460637.2

v58-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:59Z → 2026-08-26 19:49Z

391

-67

+13

-11

-190.2

v57-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:24Z → 2026-08-26 12:51Z

+12

+626.0

v56-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 12:01Z → 2026-08-26 12:10Z

110

+75

+49

+11809.4

v55-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 11:41Z → 2026-08-26 11:59Z

101

+78

+55

+6374.5

v53-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:58Z → 2026-08-26 11:04Z

+22

-2

+6307.7

v50-twin

paper

retired: prod-moved
2026-08-26 10:03Z → 2026-08-26 10:33Z

121

+34

+28

+21

+2885.8

v45

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:32Z → 2026-08-25 21:04Z

605

-86

-41

-3429.4

v44

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 20:28Z → 2026-08-25 20:31Z

365

+15

-6

-32

+5636.0

v41

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 14:46Z → 2026-08-25 17:58Z

656

-481

-5

-3573.8

v39

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:44Z → 2026-08-25 13:31Z

100

-100

-3092.3

v38

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 12:18Z → 2026-08-25 12:41Z

212

-12

+27

+15

+973.2

v37

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 09:45Z → 2026-08-25 09:45Z

+14

+12

+37215.2

v35

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:50Z → 2026-08-25 08:59Z

184

+57

+29

+23

+14065.5

v34

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-25 08:46Z → 2026-08-25 08:47Z

131

+57

+258245.1

v20

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 13:39Z → 2026-08-24 14:34Z

203

-10

+94

+90

+2187.4

v16

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:42Z → 2026-08-24 13:15Z

375

-96

-4042.7

v15

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:38Z → 2026-08-24 12:39Z

250

-77

-26

-111952.5

v14

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:35Z → 2026-08-24 12:36Z

222

-74

-4

-86088.4

v13

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:31Z → 2026-08-24 12:32Z

227

-71

-4

-87939.7

v12

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-24 12:16Z → 2026-08-24 12:17Z

222

-67

-4

-92033.7

v11

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-08-23 20:07Z → 2026-08-30 04:03Z

359

10,830

+1707

+1497

+502

+506.1

v10

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-23 08:06Z → 2026-08-23 20:03Z

907

+216

+257

+189

+951.0

paper

retired: window-complete
2026-08-22 20:03Z → 2026-08-29 00:28Z

327

7,435

+2028

+973

+411

+485.3

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 17:52Z → 2026-08-22 19:52Z

400

+76

+1010.6

paper

retired: superseded-same-day
2026-08-22 08:16Z → 2026-08-22 17:06Z

120

+96

+94

+33

+517.8

Trades of v89

when	module	market	bet	result	why
09-22 13:55	codex-open	Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? ×4 answers	YES 144	open -24	luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): BLG is a genuine top contender and already qualified, but the 19-team base rate is only 5.3%, several LCK/LPL teams appear comparably strong, and thin proxy-market prices support roughly a low-to-mid-20% chance.
09-22 12:24	close-fav	Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 befor	YES 25	open -0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-22 09:38	down-fade		YES 5	open +0	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.25; market not in cache
09-22 08:42	whale-fade	Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026?	NO 44	open -0	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 08:38	whale-fade	Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?	NO 37	open -0	fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 07:09	down-fade		YES 18	open -17	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.85->0.49; market not in cache
09-22 06:00	open-snipe	Will Trump's approval rating hit 38% or lower before Dec 1st 2026	NO 19	open -10	virgin market: cell [politics\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 05:35	whale-fade	🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?	NO 14	open +0	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 05:24	whale-fade	Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2	NO 11	open -0	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 05:10	whale-fade	Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true? ×2 answers	NO 40	open -6	fade: single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.58->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 04:57	whale-fade	Manifold allows you to set starting percentage for sets and multi choice b	NO 22	open -11	fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 04:54	open-snipe	Will the Republican Party win a majority of the five gerrymandered distric	NO 10	open +0	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 03:02	down-fade	Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time?	YES 72	settled +133	down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 01:12	open-snipe	Will bluelinfish1 reach Celestial before bluelinfish reaches Master?	NO 15	open +3	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.50
09-22 00:48	whale-fade	Rams win by over 5 vs giants	NO 85	open -82	fade: single 520-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 00:43	whale-fade	OpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?	NO 0	unfilled	fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 00:40	whale-fade	Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as define	NO 19	open +3	fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-22 00:38	down-fade		YES 14	settled -14	down-fade (blind, verify after): single 54-mana NO bet pushed 0.59->0.34; market not in cache
09-21 23:54	open-snipe	Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?	NO 15	open +5	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-21 23:40	down-fade	Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time?	YES 2	settled +4	down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.45->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-21 22:50	open-snipe	Will SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites from Starship before November 1, 20	NO 12	open -5	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.53
09-21 22:19	down-fade	Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by	YES 0	unfilled	down-fade: single 235-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average
09-21 20:51	close-fav	Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than t	YES 25	open -0	favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%
09-21 20:45	whale-fade	Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or m	NO 146	open -7	fade: single 400-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average
09-21 19:56	open-snipe	Will anyone summit Dhaulagiri in the fall 2026 climbing season?	NO 19	open +11	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50
09-21 19:49	open-snipe	Will Democratic candidate Troy Jackson win Hancock County in the ME-SEN el	NO 8	open -5	virgin market: cell [politics\|mid\|<45d\|sm] historically resolves YES 0.42 vs creator open 0.50
09-21 19:10	open-snipe	Will there be different yaps for different topics by EOY 2026?	NO 15	open -2	virgin market: cell [other\|mid\|>=45d\|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.50
09-21 19:09	whale-fade	Opus 5.2 released in September?	NO 85	open +21	fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.24; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

when

module

market

bet

0 · price · 1

result

why

09-22 13:55

codex-open

Who will win the 2026 League of Legends World Championship? ×4 answers

YES 144

open -24

luna-medium price-blind says 0.23 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.17 >= 0.1): BLG is a genuine top contender and already qualified, but the 19-team base rate is only 5.3%, several LCK/LPL teams appear comparably strong, and thin proxy-market prices support roughly a low-to-mid-20% chance.

09-22 12:24

close-fav

Will the address for math.eg.rego.re have a balance of more than $25 befor

YES 25

open -0

favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%

09-22 09:38

down-fade

YES 5

open +0

down-fade (blind, verify after): single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.40->0.25; market not in cache

09-22 08:42

whale-fade

Will GitHub support SHA256 Git repositories in 2026?

NO 44

open -0

fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.23->0.52; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 08:38

whale-fade

Will Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker following the 2026 Election?

NO 37

open -0

fade: single 350-mana YES bet pushed 0.65->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 07:09

down-fade

YES 18

open -17

down-fade (blind, verify after): single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.85->0.49; market not in cache

09-22 06:00

open-snipe

Will Trump's approval rating hit 38% or lower before Dec 1st 2026

NO 19

open -10

virgin market: cell [politics|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50

09-22 05:35

whale-fade

🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in October 2026?

NO 14

open +0

fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.49->0.69; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 05:24

whale-fade

Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2

NO 11

open -0

fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.25->0.54; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 05:10

whale-fade

Is the Susan Collins Polling Rumour true? ×2 answers

NO 40

open -6

fade: single 60-mana YES bet pushed 0.58->0.76; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 04:57

whale-fade

Manifold allows you to set starting percentage for sets and multi choice b

NO 22

open -11

fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.57->0.82; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 04:54

open-snipe

Will the Republican Party win a majority of the five gerrymandered distric

NO 10

open +0

virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50

09-22 03:02

down-fade

Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time?

YES 72

settled +133

down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.60->0.11; big NO aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 01:12

open-snipe

Will bluelinfish1 reach Celestial before bluelinfish reaches Master?

NO 15

open +3

virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.50

09-22 00:48

whale-fade

Rams win by over 5 vs giants

NO 85

open -82

fade: single 520-mana YES bet pushed 0.54->0.72; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 00:43

whale-fade

OpenAI Claims to Solve another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027?

NO 0

unfilled

fade: single 50-mana YES bet pushed 0.61->0.73; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 00:40

whale-fade

Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as define

NO 19

open +3

fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.89; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-22 00:38

down-fade

YES 14

settled -14

down-fade (blind, verify after): single 54-mana NO bet pushed 0.59->0.34; market not in cache

09-21 23:54

open-snipe

Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?

NO 15

open +5

virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50

09-21 23:40

down-fade

Will Calvin Wang complete problem set 1 of 18.701 on time?

YES 2

settled +4

down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.45->0.28; big NO aggression is overconfident on average

09-21 22:50

open-snipe

Will SpaceX deploy Starlink satellites from Starship before November 1, 20

NO 12

open -5

virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.53

09-21 22:19

down-fade

Will there be a decline in software engineer salaries attributed to AI by

YES 0

unfilled

down-fade: single 235-mana NO bet pushed 0.68->0.53; big NO aggression is overconfident on average

09-21 20:51

close-fav

Will United Russia get more seats in the next Russian Duma election than t

YES 25

open -0

favorite band 0.90-0.97 within 24h of close resolves YES 99%

09-21 20:45

whale-fade

Will Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial election by 5.00% or m

NO 146

open -7

fade: single 400-mana YES bet pushed 0.42->0.61; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

09-21 19:56

open-snipe

Will anyone summit Dhaulagiri in the fall 2026 climbing season?

NO 19

open +11

virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.33 vs creator open 0.50

09-21 19:49

open-snipe

Will Democratic candidate Troy Jackson win Hancock County in the ME-SEN el

NO 8

open -5

virgin market: cell [politics|mid|<45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.42 vs creator open 0.50

09-21 19:10

open-snipe

Will there be different yaps for different topics by EOY 2026?

NO 15

open -2

virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.31 vs creator open 0.50

09-21 19:09

whale-fade

Opus 5.2 released in September?

NO 85

open +21

fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.09->0.24; big YES aggression is overconfident on average

Cross-venue twins

Last scan 2026-08-21T20:02:05Z over 849 Polymarket, 572 Kalshi, 590 PredictIt, 30 Futuur, 0 Metaculus vs 7320 open Manifold binaries.

manifold market	price	verified venue twin	venue price	gap	venue book
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	0.94	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.78	+0.17	dormant ($15/d)
Will Zohran Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	0.93	Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.78	+0.15	dormant ($15/d)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? [Polymarket]	0.30	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.26	+0.04	live ($131/d)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	0.13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.17	-0.04	live ($72,337/d)
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?	0.04	Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open? (polymarket) [data]	0.07	-0.03	live ($29,556/d)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?	0.36	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? (polymarket) [data]	0.33	+0.03	live ($72,905/d)
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?	0.36	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? (polymarket) [data]	0.33	+0.03	live ($72,905/d)
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	0.06	Ebola pandemic in 2026? (polymarket) [data]	0.04	+0.03	live ($672/d)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	0.34	Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? (polymarket) [data]	0.32	+0.03	live ($3,970/d)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]	0.01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? (polymarket) [data]	0.04	-0.03	live ($11,447/d)
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	0.14	OpenAI IPO before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.17	-0.02	live ($6,635/d)
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? [Polymarket]	0.73	Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? (polymarket) [data]	0.75	-0.01	live ($3,927/d)
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?	0.09	Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? (polymarket) [data]	0.08	+0.01	live ($23,347/d)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? [Polymarket]	0.06	Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.05	+0.01	live ($108/d)
Nothing Ever Happens 2026	0.82	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 (polymarket) [data]	0.82	-0.01	live ($347/d)
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?	0.22	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open? (polymarket) [data]	0.21	+0.01	live ($49,169/d)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? [Polymarket]	0.30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? (polymarket) [data]	0.30	-0.01	live ($116,653/d)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027	0.01	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? (polymarket) [data]	0.02	-0.01	live ($5,308/d)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 US Open men's singles title?	0.08	Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? (polymarket) [data]	0.08	-0.00	live ($57,061/d)
New pandemic in 2026? [Polymarket]	0.05	New pandemic in 2026? (polymarket) [data]	0.06	-0.00	live ($3,711/d)
KXCANAL-29 twin (registry)		KXCANAL-29 (kalshi)			spread-gated
KXMISENATE-26-AELS twin (registry)		KXMISENATE-26-AELS (kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated
twin (registry)		(kalshi)			spread-gated

manifold market

price

verified venue twin

venue price

gap

venue book

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

0.94

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? (polymarket) [data]

0.78

+0.17

dormant ($15/d)