Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 18:48 | v68 | Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026? | NO 100 | open +5 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): The literal March-release clause makes YES nearly impossible, while an intended later deadline would imply roughly a 10–15% chance given the stringent 8-of-10 and 10× cost requirements. |
| 08-30 18:15 | v68 | Who will win season 0 of Telarchy tournament? :: elonmusk | NO 81 | open +46 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Elon Musk has no verified current-leaderboard advantage, so the estimate is near the equal-entrant base rate with substantial uncertainty from missing standings. |
| 08-30 18:15 | v68 | Who will win season 0 of Telarchy tournament? :: pokos | NO 75 | open +43 | model 0.05; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): With no verified current leaderboard position or historical advantage, pokos gets roughly the equal-share base rate for an assumed 20–30-player field, reduced by the long remaining contest window. |
| 08-30 18:15 | v68 | Who will win season 0 of Telarchy tournament? :: vi0 | NO 75 | open -27 | model 0.06; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): With no verified current lead or skill edge for vi0, I use an estimated 1-in-20 entrant base rate and make only a small adjustment for unresolved leaderboard uncertainty. |
| 08-30 18:15 | v68 | Who will win season 0 of Telarchy tournament? :: the-big-boss | NO 71 | open +40 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): With no verified current-leaderboard edge for the-big-boss, I use an estimated 1-in-15 entrant base rate and a small tie-rule adjustment. |
| 08-30 17:50 | v68 | Will google maps say Lake Ontario at the end of February 2029? | NO 25 | open -3 | model 0.28; edge -0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: 1 of 2 recent headline federal geographic renamings has been reversed; Google’s resolver currently shows “Lake America” to U.S. users, with the 2028 election and January 20, 2029 inauguration as key reversal catalysts, |
| 08-30 15:01 | v68 | Will it Snow in September in Houston? | NO 73 | open +40 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): September snow at IAH has a zero-event historical base rate across 57 station years, with current warmth and no forecast signal overcoming that extreme climatological constraint. |
| 08-30 13:08 | v68 | On September 27th 2026, what will the 7-day average ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz be? :: x ≥ 35 | NO 56 | open +38 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Historical PortWatch data show no post-crisis 7-day average at or above 35, while current traffic is about 5/day; the proposed temporary Iran-Oman corridor creates meaningful upside but remains contingent and the closest Sep-30 wi |
| 08-29 17:17 | v68 | Will Adobe report Q3 FY2026 revenue of at least $6.80 billion? | NO 30 | settled +20 | model 0.22; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.46 (edge -0.24 >= 0.2): Base rate: Adobe reached the comparable threshold in 0 of its last 3 Q3 results; management guides Q3 FY2026 to $6.67–$6.72B and consensus is about $6.69B, so $6.80B requires an unusually large beat, with the scheduled Sep. 10 aft |
| 08-29 17:09 | v68 | Person alive now becomes functionally immortal | NO 42 | open +12 | model 0.15; edge -0.35; luna-medium price-blind says 0.15 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.35 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0 verified cases of human functional immortality among all humans to date (the verified longevity record is 122 years); the rules do not define “functionally immortal” or designate an exact resolver, so strict and broad |
| 08-29 17:06 | v68 | Assortative mating of embryonically-selected individuals | NO 100 | open +5 | model 0.30; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): A qualifying study by 2050 is plausible, but the lack of existing evidence, difficult exposure measurement, stringent representativeness rule, and uncertain likelihood that the true OR exceeds 2 keep YES near 30%. |
| 08-29 16:49 | v68 | Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November? | NO 25 | open -1 | model 0.28; edge -0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: Google released 4 notable image-model updates in roughly 12 months, but only 1 was a higher-quality successor; Nano Banana 2 and 2 Lite are explicitly excluded, no qualifying event is scheduled before November, and the |
| 08-29 15:36 | v68 | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Enric Mas | YES 33 | settled +39 | model 0.58; edge +0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.58 vs answer 0.42 (edge +0.16 >= 0.1): Base rate: Mas has 0 Vuelta wins in 9 starts (though 4 podiums); assuming standard final-GC resolution, he is now leader after Pogacar’s stage-8 abandonment, but 13 stages remain including Aitana, Calar Alto, La Pandera and Collad |
| 08-29 15:36 | v68 | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Felix Gall | YES 24 | settled -24 | model 0.25; edge +0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.25 vs answer 0.12 (edge +0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1 winner per roughly 184 starters (0.54%), rising to about 20% for a top-five GC contender after week one; standard GC resolution is assumed despite missing rules, and Pogacar's stage-8 abandonment materially boosts G |
| 08-29 11:50 | v68 | Will Micheal Kovach voice act a Gameoverse Character in episode 2, 3, or 4? | NO 39 | open -0 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): Base rate: 3/5 (60%) comparable Glitch pilots reached episodes 2–4; Gameoverse’s official pilot cast does not include Michael Kovach, no episodes or casting dates are scheduled before the 2027-12-31 close, and the official [Glitch |
| 08-29 11:01 | v68 | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: USC defeats San Jose State | YES 17 | settled +11 | model 0.99; edge +0.49; luna-medium price-blind says 0.99 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.49 >= 0.3): Base rate is 6/6 head-to-head wins and 37-1-1 versus Mountain West teams, with USC a roughly 99% market/model favorite; despite underspecified rules, the Aug. 29 game occurs before the Aug. 30 close and the official USC game cente |
| 08-29 11:01 | v68 | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: Florida State defeats New Mexico State | YES 17 | settled +11 | model 0.97; edge +0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.97 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.47 >= 0.3): Florida State is a roughly 30-point home favorite with a 98–99% market-implied win probability, but recent Week 0/1 precedent is 41–5 and the unspecified rules warrant a small haircut. |
| 08-29 04:09 | v68 | Will Valve release a new VR game before the end of 2026? | NO 55 | open +17 | model 0.09; edge -0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.09 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.41 >= 0.2): Base rate: Valve had 3 qualifying VR releases in 2016–2020 but 0 in 2021–2025; the rules point to the Wikipedia Games heading, where tech demos count but published-by entries do not, and the scheduled Steam Frame launch window off |
| 08-29 03:06 | v68 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 13+ | YES 23 | open -5 | model 0.90; edge +0.76; luna-medium price-blind says 0.90 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.76 >= 0.1): The historical rate is 17 of 17 years at or above 13, but undefined resolution rules and the 2027 qualification redesign warrant a modest ambiguity discount. |
| 08-29 03:06 | v68 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 10 | YES 7 | open -0 | model 0.40; edge +0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.40 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.26 >= 0.1): Comparable historical USAJMO index cutoffs varied roughly 190.5–251.5, while 2027 eliminates AMC from qualification; with the unresolved meaning of “cutoff,” the MAA’s 2027 policy/announcement, and AIME (Feb 5–6, 2027) as the key |
| 08-29 03:06 | v68 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 12 | YES 7 | open +0 | model 0.38; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.24 >= 0.1): Historical USAJMO index cutoffs varied widely (roughly 179–251.5, with no comparable AIME-only cutoff), while the 2027 rules are ambiguous and newly make AIME primary; the February 5–6 AIME, late-February invitations, and MAA’s of |
| 08-29 03:06 | v68 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 9 | YES 6 | open -2 | model 0.35; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.35 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.21 >= 0.1): The closest historical proxy reached 9 only 2/17 times, while 2027 changes to primarily AIME-based selection with no exact cutoff published and the market rules omit the cutoff definition. |
| 08-29 02:19 | v68 | Prototaxites get it's own kingdom before Christmas 2030? | NO 30 | open -10 | model 0.24; edge -0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.24 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.26 >= 0.2): Despite unusually strong recent evidence for a distinct lineage, the very low base rate of new kingdoms and ambiguity over whether Wikipedia must state an accepted kingdom assignment make YES unlikely. |
| 08-28 22:02 | v68 | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 21 | open +12 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 U.S. accessions in roughly 28 years; formally joining requires presidential action and two-thirds Senate consent, while Republican opposition and current anti-ICC policy dominate the narrative; the key calendar even |
| 08-28 22:02 | v68 | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 19 | open +10 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 U.S. accessions in 26 years; joining requires presidential action plus two-thirds Senate consent, current policy is actively hostile, the 2028 presidential and 2030 Senate elections are the key scheduled catalysts, |
| 08-28 22:02 | v68 | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 16 | open +9 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Conditional on a Democrat winning in 2028, formal US accession by 2030 is still unlikely because the historical US rate is 0/28 years and accession requires overcoming a two-thirds Senate hurdle despite possible policy reversal. |
| 08-28 18:36 | v68 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo | NO 64 | settled +39 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Base rate: Cerúndolo has reached 0 of 4 prior U.S. Open main draws’ semifinals; his 2026 hard-court record is only 8-7, and the released draw routes him through Fritz and likely De Minaur/Auger-Aliassime, so I estimate 3%, with Au |
| 08-28 18:36 | v68 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇺🇸 L. Tien | NO 60 | settled +38 | model 0.06; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 5% for a No. 13–16 seed to reach the US Open semifinals; Tien is seeded 14 with a difficult draw, and the +6000 outright-winner market (an imperfect proxy) implies a low-single-digit semifinal chance, with the |
| 08-28 18:36 | v68 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇺🇸 B. Nakashima | NO 60 | settled +38 | model 0.06; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Historical base rate for a No.16-ish player reaching a Grand Slam semifinal is roughly 2–3%; Nakashima’s exceptional hard-court run raises this to about 5.5%, but his draw likely requires beating Djokovic, and the Aug. 30–Sep. 11 |
| 08-28 18:36 | v68 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇦🇺 A. De Minaur | NO 55 | settled +35 | model 0.09; edge -0.41; luna-medium price-blind says 0.09 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.41 >= 0.3): De Minaur’s 0-for-9 US Open semifinal history, 0-for-7 Grand Slam quarterfinal conversion, and likely Zverev quarterfinal make YES about 9% despite his No. 6 seed and favorable current form. |
30 trades, 1,308 staked, realised +207, open +304 if held / +228 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
30 trades for 1,308 mana. 9 of them settled for +207.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.