Someone drops a big YES bet and shoves a market upward. On average that is overconfidence rather than news, so this module buys the other side. It only counts as a whale above 50 mana and a 10% shove, it stakes 25 and holds at most 50 per market — so it turns almost everything down. This page is mostly a record of what it turned down.
No whale-sized bets seen yet. Every bet on the venue is checked; this fills when one is big enough to matter.
| market type | fades | staked | realised | open, if held | open, if sold | mana / fade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| binary | 8 | 200 | +216.5 (3 settled) | +34.0 | -19.0 | +31.31 |
| multiple choice, independent | off in this version | |||||
| multiple choice, one winner | off in this version | |||||
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 19:59 | v10 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +143 | fade: single 500-mana YES bet pushed 0.78->0.85; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 18:34 | v10 | Will Sweden adopt the Euro before 2032? | NO 25 | open +0 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.17->0.23; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 18:20 | v10 | "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide? | NO 25 | open -22 | fade: single 1000-mana YES bet pushed 0.70->0.86; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 18:02 | v10 | "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" grosses >$2.5 billion worldwide? | NO 25 | open -24 | fade: single 250-mana YES bet pushed 0.37->0.51; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 13:39 | v10 | Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump? | NO 25 | open +2 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.28->0.34; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 12:55 | v10 | 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026? | NO 25 | settled -25 | fade: single 102-mana YES bet pushed 0.34->0.75; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 10:57 | v10 | Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $86.50 on August 27, 2026? | NO 25 | settled +99 | fade: single 412-mana YES bet pushed 0.71->0.80; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-23 10:01 | v10 | Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027? | NO 25 | open +25 | fade: single 100-mana YES bet pushed 0.82->0.91; big YES aggression is overconfident on average |
8 trades, 200 staked, realised +216, open +34 if held / -19 if sold.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | shove | move | whale | market | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing above whale size yet. | |||||
Of 0 bets judged, 0 cleared every rule
and were faded for 200 mana; 0 were beaten to it, the move
taken by someone faster before the last rule could pass. The dashed leg on
each shove is the part of the move that was gone before this module could
act. The book above has every fade this version owns, with its era and
result; the log is traces, which rotate.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate.
Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.