A brand-new market has exactly one price in it, and that price is whatever its creator picked. Markets of the same shape — same topic, same opening price, same horizon, same ante — have a resolution rate the venue has already revealed. When that history and the creator's price disagree by more than 8%, this module bets 50% of the way from the price toward the history. It only works on markets nobody has traded yet, so its real competitor is not a price — it is everyone else who got there first.
Every market in the second column cleared this module's rules and was lost to whoever arrived sooner. That is the only bucket here that represents money left on the table. Markets already traded when we first looked never reached the rules at all, so they are counted apart; the rest are markets it did not want.
Dark tick is the creator's opening price; coloured tick is what the history said — on a decline, the rate markets of this shape resolve at; on a bet, the price this module moved it toward. The bar between them is the edge, and its colour is the side of the bet — warm toward YES, cool toward NO. Rows marked bet are the journal's; the rest are traces.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 19:23 | v10 | Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027? | NO 15 | open +8 | virgin market: cell [ai|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.35 vs creator open 0.50 |
| 08-23 17:09 | v10 | Will I successfully brainwash myself into becoming Christian after 6 months? | NO 12 | open +5 | virgin market: cell [personal|mid|>=45d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.39 vs creator open 0.50 |
| 08-23 16:52 | v10 | Will 3 or more total goals be scored in the Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City match on August 28, 2026? | NO 10 | settled -10 | virgin market: cell [sports|mid|<10d|sm] historically resolves YES 0.45 vs creator open 0.55 |
| 08-23 15:52 | v10 | Will Ye / Kanye West perform in St. Petersburg on both 10 and 11 October 2026, as planned? | NO 30 | open +20 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|>=45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.30 vs creator open 0.50 |
| 08-23 12:54 | v10 | Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026? | NO 60 | open +55 | virgin market: cell [other|mid|<45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.41 vs creator open 0.50 |
| 08-23 08:08 | v10 | Will James Talarico win Starr County in the 2026 Texas Senate election? | NO 30 | open -5 | virgin market: cell [politics|hi|>=45d|lg] historically resolves YES 0.43 vs creator open 0.80 |
6 trades, 157 staked, realised -10, open +90 if held / +84 if sold.
Of 0 markets judged in the traces on hand,
6 cleared every rule and 6 were reached before
anyone else, for 157 mana. Of those, 1 settled for -10. Losing a market
to a faster participant is not a rejection and is counted separately
from one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.