Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-23 20:03 | v10 | Will Lorena Wiebes lose a group sprint before EOY 2027? | YES 100 | open +56 | model 1.00; edge +0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 1.00 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.50 >= 0.3): This has already occurred: in the 2026 Ronde van Brugge, Carys Lloyd won while Lorena Wiebes finished ninth in the same 3:31:23 group, and the race was classified 1.WWT. The official results therefore satisfy the rule that Wiebes |
| 08-23 12:55 | v10 | Will Shohei Ohtani hit at least 43 home runs in 2026? | NO 100 | open +80 | model 0.09; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.09 vs market 0.47 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Ohtani has 30 home runs through August 22, requiring 13 more in roughly 34 remaining regular-season games, while his current rate projects to about 8 additional homers. His 2024–25 power history supports upside, but a knee issue a |
2 trades, 200 staked, realised +0, open +138 if held / +136 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 200 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.