Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 19:21 | v58-twin | Which frontier lab will top the Epoch Capabilities Index EOY 2027? :: OpenAI | YES 3 | open +1 | model 0.39; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.39 vs answer 0.25 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: among 17 post-GPT-4 ECI leaders, median reign was about 7 weeks and only GPT-4 lasted 352 days; rules are clear and resolve by Epoch’s general ECI point estimate, whose current leader is OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Pro at 161.29 v |
| 08-26 17:19 | v58-twin | Will tobey maguire die in avengers doomsday? | NO 100 | open -1 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.2): Maguire’s appearance looks unlikely and, even if he appears, his death is a low-base-rate outcome. |
| 08-26 16:54 | v58-twin | Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis by the end of September 2026 :: Anthropic | YES 17 | open +49 | model 0.64; edge +0.53; luna-medium price-blind says 0.64 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.53 >= 0.1): Anthropic has both the current #1 and #2 models, but rapid frontier-model turnover and late-September release catalysts leave a substantial chance that OpenAI, Google, or another lab overtakes it by the exact Artificial Analysis c |
| 08-26 14:48 | v58-twin | MLB: Will the Houston Astros sweep the Chicago White Sox OR will the 4-game series total 34 or more runs? | YES 28 | settled -28 | model 0.74; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): Base rate: 4-game MLB sweeps occur about 10–14%, while the teams’ roughly 9.3 combined runs/game implies about a 70–73% chance of reaching 34 runs; the clear rules make this a union, with modest added sweep probability, minimal po |
| 08-26 13:57 | v58-twin | Will Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe manage to pull off a 'Unite the Right'? | NO 36 | open -13 | model 0.20; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): Base rate for comparable formal cross-party pacts after acrimonious UK party splits is roughly 15%; the rules require an explicit pact, merger, or Electoral Commission-recognized coalition, while Farage rejected Lowe’s conditions |
5 trades, 184 staked, realised -28, open +51 if held / +36 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
5 trades for 184 mana. 1 of them settled for -28.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.