Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 17:58 | v41 | MLB: Will the Tampa Bay Rays sweep the New York Mets OR will the 3-game series total 25 or more runs? | YES 28 | settled +20 | model 0.75; edge +0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.75 vs market 0.52 (edge +0.23 >= 0.2): MLB.com lists the Rays at 78-53 with 591 runs scored and 544 allowed, versus the Mets at 59-72 with 546 scored and 586 allowed; Tampa is also 43-23 at home while New York is 29-37 on the road. Those run rates imply roughly 26-27 c |
| 08-25 16:37 | v41 | Will Celtic score two more goals against LASK? | YES 9 | settled -9 | model 0.39; edge +0.34; luna-medium price-blind says 0.39 vs market 0.05 (edge +0.34 >= 0.2): Celtic scored 3 in the first leg and began the season with four straight wins, but their 3-0 aggregate lead strongly reduces the need to attack aggressively away from home. LASK are at home and must chase the tie, while Celtic are |
| 08-25 15:13 | v41 | Will my brother win the game Tapestry in the next two days? | NO 363 | settled -363 | model 0.20; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.30 >= 0.2): No information is provided about whether the game will occur, how many players there will be, or the players’ relative skill. I therefore use a low broad prior reflecting both uncertainty about the event happening and roughly even |
| 08-25 14:47 | v41 | GreenLuck Casino Canada Review: Is It Worth Your Spins? | NO 38 | cancelled | model 0.22; edge -0.37; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.59 (edge -0.37 >= 0.2): GreenLuck’s advertised games and bonuses are corroborated, but independent reviews report 43 complaints, delayed withdrawals, restrictive terms, and below-average safety, while its offshore Anjouan licensing does not provide Canad |
4 trades, 437 staked, realised -351, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 437 mana. 3 of them settled for -351.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.