Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-25 09:45 | v37 | Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ? | YES 28 | open +12 | model 0.74; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.74 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): NASA’s current plan designates Artemis IV as the first lunar landing, targeting early 2028, and repeatedly states that Artemis will land the first woman on the Moon. The main discount is schedule and technical risk: NASA’s Inspect |
1 trade, 28 staked, realised +0, open +14 if held / +12 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
1 trades for 28 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.