Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-24 12:39 | v15 | Best IVF Centre in Bangkok | YES 58 | cancelled | model 0.93; edge +0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.93 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.43 >= 0.3): Multiple Bangkok fertility providers already publish pages explicitly titled or claiming to identify the “Best IVF Centre in Bangkok,” including Pride IVF and Bangkok Fertility Center. However, the resolution rules define no objec |
| 08-24 12:39 | v15 | AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026? | NO 75 | settled -75 | model 0.01; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.39 (edge -0.38 >= 0.3): Clay currently lists six Millennium problems as unsolved, while the 2026 AI Index reports rapid progress to gold-medal IMO performance but says rigorous theorem proving remains difficult ([Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.c |
2 trades, 133 staked, realised -75, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 133 mana. 1 of them settled for -75.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:05Z.