Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 17:51 | v78 | Will Mohan Bhagwat be taken into custody by a U.S. government authority in New York City before August 31, 202 | NO 73 | settled +27 | model 0.00; edge -0.50; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.50 >= 0.2): Base rate is effectively 0% (<0.1%) for a named foreign leader being detained by U.S. authorities in NYC during a two-day window; despite protests and a USCIRF call to revoke his visa, Bhagwat is publicly scheduled to speak at Madison Square Garden on August 29 and has already attended NYC events, with no reported warrant or custody action, so NYPD News and DOJ/ICE records would likely resolve NO ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/934a58a17a491eeeb71fd9285378121a), [USCIRF](https://www.uscirf.gov/news-room/releases-statements/india-must-be-held-accountable-religious-freedom-violations), [event coverage](https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/rss-chief-mohan-bhagwat-new-york-event-where-and-when-to-watch-live-universal-oneness-celebrations-zohran-mamdani-hindu-101788017649039.html)). |
| 08-29 17:16 | v78 | [Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027? | YES 100 | open -53 | model 0.52; edge +0.27; luna-medium price-blind says 0.52 vs market 0.26 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): I estimate 52%: the analogous Manifold market is 46% ([source](https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-brown-will-transformative-ai-l)), while current industry evidence supports model specialization and routing ([NVIDIA](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/glossary/specialized-ai/), [IDC](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/blog/the-future-of-ai-is-model-routing/)), but the omitted tweet and subjective poll wording warrant pulling toward 0.5. |
| 08-29 17:16 | v78 | Assortative mating of embryonically-selected individuals | NO 100 | open -20 | model 0.27; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.27 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): The OR could exceed 2 through strong socioeconomic and geographic clustering, but the rarity of the exposure, lack of existing qualifying evidence, weak registry linkage to adult partnerships, and ambiguous resolution fallback make YES substantially less likely than not. |
| 08-29 17:15 | v78 | Person alive now becomes functionally immortal | NO 56 | open +1 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 verified cases among all humans ever; no scheduled event mechanically resolves it before 2050, and the rules define neither “functionally immortal” nor an exact resolver, so ambiguity warrants some pull toward 0.5 but evidence remains strongly NO (Guinness record: https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/oldest-person; Nature Aging: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-024-00702-3). |
4 trades, 329 staked, realised +27, open -48 if held / -72 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 329 mana. 1 of them settled for +27.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.