Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 16:57 | v77 | Will Barron Trump enter politics? | NO 25 | open -1 | model 0.28; edge -0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Historical base rate is roughly 20–25% of presidential children eventually seeking elected office; Barron’s dynastic access raises this modestly, but his low public-political engagement offsets hype, with federal elections scheduled in 2028, 2032, 2036, and 2040 before the deadline, resolved by the relevant jurisdiction’s official candidate filings and certified vote canvass (no matching witness market identified). |
| 08-29 16:51 | v77 | [Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2027? | YES 100 | open -58 | model 0.50; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs market 0.30 (edge +0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate is approximately 50% for agreement with broad speculative AI theses, and the omitted tweet plus unspecified poll wording create enough resolution ambiguity to keep the estimate near 0.5; no scheduled event or matching witness materially shifts it, and Manifold's August 2027 poll is the exact resolver. |
2 trades, 125 staked, realised +0, open -54 if held / -60 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 125 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.