| arm | shared | arm Brier | champ Brier | arm P&L | champ P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| blind1 | 9 | 0.1871 | 0.1871 | -18.24 | 1.76 |
| gemini-3-flash | 1 | 0.0917 | 0.0995 | 0 | 0 |
| samples3 | 9 | 0.1797 | 0.1871 | -18.24 | 1.76 |
| pass | ver | question | est | price | action | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will the NFL announce a team for any non-US city by the start of the 2026 season | 0.1301 | 0.0317 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: NFL international franchises are rare; no near-term non-US announcement is expected. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | SPY 900 by Sep 18 2026? | 0.1406 | 0.0419 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: index moves above thirty percent in a year are uncommon; 900 requires an exceptional rally. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Another politically motivated* assassination of a notable* English-speaking infl | 0.1239 | 0.2466 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: politically motivated influencer assassinations are extremely rare; notoriety and English-speaking scope narrow further. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | GOOGL Sep18'26 600? | 0.1692 | 0.0345 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: tripling a mega-cap stock quickly is uncommon; $600 requires exceptional growth or split-adjustment ambiguity. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Microsoft opens Majorana chip to public in next 12 months? | 0.1972 | 0.0523 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: experimental chips rarely open publicly within a year; Microsoft’s Majorana program remains research-stage. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026? | 0.3123 | 0.1605 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: elite players often win one major; Alcaraz’s surface versatility modestly supports two. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys? | 0.346 | 0.163 | skip:research-cap | Base rate: non-HBO streamers frequently win major Emmy drama awards; HBO remains a formidable competitor. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will Kalshi beat Polymarket? | 0.2846 | 0.5182 | skip:no-reestimate | Base rate: competitive platform leadership changes slowly; “beat” lacks a specified metric and timeframe. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will Jannik Sinner win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026? | 0.2822 | 0.53 | skip:no-reestimate | Base rate: elite players often win one major; Sinner’s form makes two plausible but not likely. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer? | 0.3524 | 0.1003 | skip:no-reestimate | Base rate: Texas grid disruptions occur during hot summers; severity and definition of blackout create uncertainty. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will Israel exist two years from now? | 0.6724 | 0.99 | skip:no-reestimate | Base rate: existing states almost always persist two years; total Israeli disappearance requires an extreme scenario. |
| 20260811 | 9804f89 | Will Zoro kill/defeat a Gorosei? | 0.2011 | 0.5724 | skip:no-reestimate | Base rate: major manga character victories are infrequent by short horizons; Zoro defeating a Gorosei remains speculative. |
| pass | ver | metric | est | consensus | action | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam trial-to-paid (14-day cohort) | 23.0 | 23.51 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Approved branch improves targeting to sim fans, who likely have a higher need for head-tracking, marginally supporting trial-to-paid conversion. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Total revenue (monthly) | 6250.0 | 6636.52 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Revenue follows the lagging 30-day window; the benefits of new traffic will take longer to offset the recent high-traffic period rolling off. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam store CTR % (7d) | 2.6 | 2.47 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Capsule v2's clear webcam-only badge specifically addresses user friction, likely yielding a notable CTR improvement for browsing users. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam store CTR % (7d) | 2.4 | 2.45 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Declined branch leaves CTR at the baseline established before the recent badge and wordmark optimization. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam store impressions (7d) | 265000.0 | 258931.2 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Approved tags should significantly boost placement in 'More like this' sections for truck sims, increasing rolling impressions. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam store visits (7d) | 5550.0 | 5892.7 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Approved optimizations (v2 capsule + tags) are expected to drive more qualified clicks from simulation fans, increasing the 7d visit count. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam store impressions (7d) | 245000.0 | 257881.6 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Without capsule v2 (declined), store reach will rely solely on tags, likely resulting in a shallower recovery from the recent dip. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Steam store visits (7d) | 5350.0 | 5545.18 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Declined branch assumes no capsule v2, leading to slower growth in visits compared to approved optimizations. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Trials WoW growth ratio | 1.12 | 1.08 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Approved branch includes capsule v2 and tags, which increase visibility for simulation fans who show higher intent for head-tracking software. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | New users (1-hour trailing) | 5.0 | 5.98 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | The spike to 7 is likely an outlier, but live capsule v2 and tags should keep hourly acquisition above the previous mean of 1-2. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Trials WoW growth ratio | 1.05 | 1.08 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Trial growth is cooling from a peak but remains above parity; store optimizations should provide a modest lift. |
| 20260809 | 0cba2da | Total revenue (monthly) | 6300.0 | 6237.94 | skip:normalized edge below min_edge | Monthly revenue is on a downward trend and will likely continue to slide as older, higher-traffic days drop out of the 30-day window. |