The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 12:47 | v85 | Will GPT-6 be called "Astra"? | YES 18 | settled +17 | down-fade: single 70-mana NO bet pushed 0.76->0.39; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 09-02 12:46 | v85 | Is OpenAI's upcoming "Astra" model going to be called GPT-6? | YES 28 | settled +153 | down-fade: single 1000-mana NO bet pushed 0.35->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
2 trades, 45 staked, realised +171, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.