Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 13:02 | v85 | Important Bayesian updating market :: Scalene | YES 34 | settled -34 | model 0.45; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.45 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/3 (equal type sampling; no historical series exists); the first measurement favors an isosceles triangle but ordering rules are ambiguous, so I pull toward 0.5, with four further daily measurements before the Sep 9 close expected from the user-provided stream as the resolver and no matching witness market identified. |
| 09-02 13:02 | v85 | Important Bayesian updating market :: Isosceles | YES 56 | settled +51 | model 0.79; edge +0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.79 vs answer 0.33 (edge +0.46 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1/3 because types are sampled equally; the measurements strongly favor isosceles (roughly 0.80 posterior), with four daily measurements remaining before the Sep 9 close and the market’s five-set benchmark result as resolver; side-ordering ambiguity warrants a slight pull toward 0.5. |
| 09-02 13:02 | v85 | Important Bayesian updating market :: Equilateral | NO 100 | settled +28 | model 0.00; edge -0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.00 vs answer 0.33 (edge -0.33 >= 0.1): The 1/3 prior is overwhelmingly reduced by measurements near (5,10,10), making equilateral very unlikely under the stated noisy-measurement model. |
| 09-02 11:32 | v85 | Заскамит? :: Да, стрима не будет | NO 100 | settled +285 | model 0.50; edge -0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.80 (edge -0.30 >= 0.1): Без описания неясно, кто должен стримить, что считается скамом и какой источник разрешает исход, поэтому базовую частоту оценить нельзя и вероятность смещена к 0.5. |
| 09-02 11:32 | v85 | Заскамит? :: Нет, стрим будет, твердо и четко | YES 100 | settled +285 | model 0.50; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.50 vs answer 0.20 (edge +0.30 >= 0.1): Историческая ставка неизвестна (принимаю базовый уровень 50%); правила, объект, календарное событие и точный источник резолюции отсутствуют, поэтому неоднозначность тянет оценку к 0.5. |
| 09-02 11:21 | v85 | Will Grok 4.7 be released on 9/11? | NO 1 | settled +1 | model 0.20; edge -0.23; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs market 0.43 (edge -0.23 >= 0.2): Base rate for release on any one day in a ten-day window is about 10%; Musk’s September 2 announcement points to September 12, not 11, and absent resolution rules create date, timezone, and release-surface ambiguity, so I estimate 20%, with the official xAI News/Models pages as resolver and no matching witness market. |
| 09-02 10:17 | v85 | Who will win the Massachusetts governor’s race? :: Michael Minogue | NO 34 | open +15 | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.1): Base rate: Republicans won 3 of Massachusetts’ last 6 gubernatorial elections (50%), but Healey leads Minogue 54.3%–31.3% in the RCP average; the Nov. 3 election is the key scheduled event, and official certification by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth will resolve the market, with the fixed-answer N/A clause adding only a negligible tail risk. |
| 09-02 10:17 | v85 | Who will win the Massachusetts governor’s race? :: Maura Healey | YES 31 | open +14 | model 0.95; edge +0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.95 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.45 >= 0.1): Base rate: 4 of 5 recent Massachusetts incumbent gubernatorial reelection bids succeeded (80%); rules clearly identify the November 3 election and certified Secretary of the Commonwealth results as the resolver; Healey leads Minogue by roughly 20 points in recent UMass and UNH polling, with no scheduled event before close indicating a meaningful reversal, so I estimate a 95% chance she wins. |
8 trades, 456 staked, realised +617, open +32 if held / +29 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
8 trades for 456 mana. 6 of them settled for +617.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.