Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 03:49 | v80-twin | Who wins the 2026 NASCAR Chase for the Cup? :: Ryan Blaney | YES 9 | open +4 | model 0.25; edge +0.19; luna-medium price-blind says 0.25 vs answer 0.06 (edge +0.19 >= 0.1): Blaney’s strong second-place standing and recent wins support roughly the 25% market-implied chance, but the missing resolution rules add modest uncertainty. |
| 08-30 00:36 | v80-twin | Will MNX have $1m in volume before October 2026? | NO 39 | open -11 | model 0.17; edge -0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.17 vs market 0.46 (edge -0.29 >= 0.2): MNX appears not yet publicly launched and has negligible observed pre-launch volume, so despite a 65% market-implied chance of launch before October and a full month for trading, I estimate only about a 17% chance of reaching $1m in official mainnet aggregate volume. |
2 trades, 48 staked, realised +0, open +6 if held / -7 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 48 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.