The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-30 07:42 | v80 | yEPcS6Qgzd | YES 18 | open +13 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 60-mana NO bet pushed 0.69->0.38; market not in cache |
| 08-30 00:21 | v80 | Will there be an Unsong musical by the end of 2026? | YES 16 | open -4 | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.47->0.25; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 22:52 | v80 | Will YES have more holders than NO? | YES 28 | settled +16 | down-fade: single 500-mana NO bet pushed 0.56->0.36; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
3 trades, 61 staked, realised +16, open +11 if held / +8 if sold.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.