The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 16:55 | v77-twin | Any new Claude or GPT before end of August 2026? | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade: single 101-mana NO bet pushed 0.50->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 16:51 | v77-twin | EPL: Will Fulham beat Crystal Palace? | YES 18 | settled -18 | down-fade: single 100-mana NO bet pushed 0.48->0.20; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
2 trades, 35 staked, realised -35, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.