Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 16:09 | v77-twin | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Primoz Roglic | YES 44 | settled -44 | model 0.34; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs answer 0.10 (edge +0.24 >= 0.1): Base-rate proxy: roughly one-third of top-three Grand Tour GC riders within about a minute after week one ultimately win; with no resolution description I assume official final general classification, while the post-stage-8 leader change after Pogačar’s abandonment leaves Roglič about a minute behind Mas but makes his experience and strong remaining-climb profile meaningful, with Stage 9 (Aug 30) and later summit finishes through Stage 20 (Sep 12) decisive before the Sep 13 finish; the exact resolver is La Vuelta’s official final general-classification page, while available bookmaker odds are stale pre-abandonment proxies, so I discount them. |
| 08-29 16:09 | v77-twin | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Oscar Onley | YES 32 | settled -32 | model 0.18; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.04 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Base rate: a randomly selected rider wins a 176-rider Grand Tour field about 0.57%; the rules imply official final GC with no material ambiguity, Onley is sixth at +6:06 after stage 7, and Pogačar’s stage-8 abandonment materially improves his chances, while the remaining mountain stages through the September 13 finish are decisive; the resolver is La Vuelta’s official final general classification, and the pre-abandonment winner-without-Pogačar market priced Onley around 20%, which I trim slightly for his deficit and recent illness/cramps ([standings](https://www.rouleur.cc/racing/races/vuelta-a-espana/2026/stages/8/results), [abandonment](https://efe.com/deportes/2026-08-29/pogacar-retira-carrera-caida/), [calendar](https://www.lavuelta.es/en/stage-9), [market](https://www.betvictor.com/en-gb/sports/967300/meetings/727252910/all)). |
| 08-29 16:09 | v77-twin | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Enric Mas | NO 27 | settled -27 | model 0.38; edge -0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.12 >= 0.1): Recent Vueltas show the stage-8 leader ultimately winning roughly 55% of the time; with no resolution rules I assume official final GC, and despite Mas inheriting the lead after Pogacar's withdrawal, Roglic/Gall/Carapaz remain threats through summit finishes (Aitana, Calar Alto, La Pandera, Peñas Blancas, Collado del Alguacil) and the stage-18 time trial before the official La Vuelta final-classification page settles it, so I estimate 38%. |
| 08-29 16:05 | v77-twin | Will deepseek v5 release in september 2026? | YES 77 | open +3 | model 0.28; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.04 (edge +0.24 >= 0.2): The short post-V4 timing, official silence, and unverified rumor imply low odds, but the unspecified tweet rule materially widens interpretation and pulls the estimate toward 0.5. |
4 trades, 180 staked, realised -102, open +95 if held / +3 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 180 mana. 3 of them settled for -102.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.