The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 15:57 | v76 | Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar? | YES 6 | settled +66 | down-fade: single 75-mana NO bet pushed 0.38->0.15; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 15:30 | v76 | Will Iran strike US military base at least once in August? | YES 100 | settled +207 | down-fade: single 277-mana NO bet pushed 0.72->0.08; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
2 trades, 106 staked, realised +272, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.