Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 15:35 | v76 | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Felix Gall | NO 100 | settled +46 | model 0.04; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.17 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate is one winner among roughly 176 starters (~0.6%), with Gall's market proxy at 35.00 implying 2.9%; rules are unspecified so I assume final GC winner, Gall is 4th at +5:01 behind dominant leader Pogačar, and the remaining |
| 08-29 15:35 | v76 | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Primoz Roglic | NO 15 | settled +2 | model 0.04; edge -0.13; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.17 (edge -0.13 >= 0.1): Base rate: Roglič has won 4 of his 6 previous Vuelta starts (66.7%), but he is currently third, about 4:50 behind Pogačar; the rules lack detail, so I interpret YES as winning the final general classification, resolved by La Vuelt |
| 08-29 15:35 | v76 | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Sepp Kuss | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.01; edge -0.15; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.17 (edge -0.15 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1 winner per roughly 178 starters (0.56%); assuming standard final-GC resolution despite missing rules, Kuss is fifth at +6:05 behind Pogačar after Stage 8, with mountain stages remaining through September 13, while 7 |
| 08-29 15:35 | v76 | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Oscar Onley | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.03; edge -0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.17 (edge -0.14 >= 0.1): Onley remains a credible top-ten contender but his six-minute deficit, illness, zero prior Grand Tour GC wins, and Pogačar’s dominance make a final overall victory roughly a 2.5% chance. |
4 trades, 115 staked, realised +48, open +0 if held / +0 if sold, 2 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
4 trades for 115 mana. 2 of them settled for +48.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.