Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 15:36 | v75-twin | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Primoz Roglic | YES 37 | settled -37 | model 0.32; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.32 vs answer 0.12 (edge +0.20 >= 0.1): Base rate: 8/10 recent stage-8 leaders and 10/10 recent top-three riders ultimately won or contained the winner; assuming standard final GC rules despite no description, Roglič is third and only 1:00 behind Mas after Pogačar’s off |
| 08-29 15:36 | v75-twin | Who will win the 2026 Vuelta a España? :: Sepp Kuss | NO 100 | settled +11 | model 0.01; edge -0.10; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs answer 0.12 (edge -0.10 >= 0.1): Base rate is 1 winner per 184 starters (0.54%); treating the missing rules as standard official final-GC resolution, Kuss is 5th at +6:05 behind dominant leader Pogačar, with stages 9–21—including mountain finishes, a time trial, |
2 trades, 137 staked, realised -26, open +0 if held / +0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
2 trades for 137 mana. 2 of them settled for -26.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.