The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 15:11 | v75 | Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar? | YES 14 | settled +144 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.66->0.45; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 15:11 | v75 | Will Tadej Pogacar hold the red jersey for the entire 2026 Vuelta a Espana? | YES 25 | settled -85 | down-fade: single 400-mana NO bet pushed 0.65->0.44; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 15:10 | v75 | Will the winner of the 2026 Vuelta a España be Roglic or Pogacar? | YES 7 | settled +69 | down-fade: single 50-mana NO bet pushed 0.82->0.65; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 15:10 | v75 | Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Vuelta a Espana? | YES 25 | settled -25 | down-fade: single 150-mana NO bet pushed 0.70->0.51; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
| 08-29 15:09 | v75 | Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Vuelta a Espana? | YES 0 | unfilled | down-fade: single 200-mana NO bet pushed 0.93->0.78; big NO aggression is overconfident on average |
5 trades, 71 staked, realised +103, open +0 if held / +0 if sold, 1 unfilled.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:01Z.