Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 11:50 | v74 | Will Micheal Kovach voice act a Gameoverse Character in episode 2, 3, or 4? | NO 39 | open -11 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.2): The pilot omits Michael Kovach, no official casting or episode schedule exists, and the probability of both episodes 2–4 being produced by close and him receiving a credited character role is modest. |
| 08-29 11:00 | v74 | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: USC defeats San Jose State | YES 17 | settled +13 | model 0.98; edge +0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.48 >= 0.3): USC’s 6-0 series record, home-field advantage, No. 14 ranking, and approximately 39.5-point favoritism imply a very high probability of defeating San José State despite the thin historical sample and underspecified rules. |
| 08-29 11:00 | v74 | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: Florida State defeats New Mexico State | YES 16 | settled +13 | model 0.96; edge +0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.96 vs answer 0.50 (edge +0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate: Florida State is 7-1 (87.5%) straight-up against Group-of-Six/FCS opponents since 2022; rules are unspecified, but “defeats” most naturally means winning the official final result, with market odds implying roughly 95–9 |
3 trades, 73 staked, realised +26, open -6 if held / -11 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
3 trades for 73 mana. 2 of them settled for +26.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.