The mirror of whale‑fade: a single bet that shoves a binary market down 0.15+ is on average overconfident, and this module buys 25 YES against it on the same reaction race. Measured +6.98/event in the 2026 era (n=753, CI [+2.97, +11.19]) on the resolution replay; its own book so the number stays visible.
No decisions traced by this version.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 12:19 | v72-twin | 8rzR4F9iETaRXCZvuk4s | YES 25 | open +4 | down-fade (blind, verify after): single 130-mana NO bet pushed 0.57->0.24; market not in cache |
1 trade, 25 staked, realised +0, open +11 if held / +4 if sold.
Judge this module at resolution, like the replay that justified it; the race column says whether the entry price was still worth having. Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is separate. Built 2026-09-22 18:22Z.