Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 11:50 | v72-twin | Will Micheal Kovach voice act a Gameoverse Character in episode 2, 3, or 4? | NO 49 | open -0 | model 0.12; edge -0.38; luna-medium price-blind says 0.12 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.38 >= 0.2): Base rate: roughly 25% of animated pilots become full series, and conditional on continuation I estimate a 45% chance Kovach appears in episodes 2–4; Glitch’s official pilot only asks viewers to help greenlight a season, with no a |
| 08-29 11:00 | v72-twin | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: USC defeats San Jose State | YES 17 | settled +13 | model 0.98; edge +0.56; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.56 >= 0.3): USC’s 94.9% Mountain West historical win rate, 6–0 series record, home matchup, and roughly 39-point market spread make an upset unlikely before the Aug. 29 kickoff. |
| 08-29 11:00 | v72-twin | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: Florida State defeats New Mexico State | YES 17 | settled +13 | model 0.98; edge +0.56; luna-medium price-blind says 0.98 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.56 >= 0.3): Florida State is a massive home favorite against a 4–8 New Mexico State team, and the matchup is officially scheduled for Week 0, so despite FSU’s recent struggles the base rate and market proxy strongly favor an FSU win. |
| 08-29 11:00 | v72-twin | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: Eastern Michigan defeats Sacramento State | YES 8 | settled +8 | model 0.76; edge +0.33; luna-medium price-blind says 0.76 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.33 >= 0.3): Base rate: home favorites around 8–10 points win roughly 77%; Sacramento State–Eastern Michigan is scheduled for Aug. 29 at 6:30 p.m. ET, with sportsbook markets implying about 76% for EMU (proxy, not the resolver); the exact reso |
| 08-29 11:00 | v72-twin | What results will happen during Week 0 of College Football? :: TCU defeats North Carolina | YES 8 | settled -8 | model 0.75; edge +0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.75 vs answer 0.43 (edge +0.32 >= 0.3): Historical NCAAF favorites at -9.5 win outright about 75.6%; TCU is currently priced around -360 (roughly 75% no-vig) against UNC, with the scheduled Week 0 game on Aug. 29 at noon ET on ESPN, and the assumed standard final-score |
5 trades, 100 staked, realised +25, open +8 if held / -0 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
5 trades for 100 mana. 4 of them settled for +25.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.