Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 07:19 | v67-twin | MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Houston Astros OR will the 3-game series total 26 or more runs? | YES 22 | settled +18 | model 0.71; edge +0.21; luna-medium price-blind says 0.71 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.21 >= 0.2): Base rate is roughly 17% for a specific-team three-game sweep and about 60% for 26+ combined runs, while current scoring projects near 28 runs across the series; the rules are clear, the Sep. 8–10 schedule is the relevant calendar |
| 08-29 04:09 | v67-twin | Will Valve release a new VR game before the end of 2026? | NO 63 | open +19 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.2): Base rate is 2 qualifying VR releases in 2016–25 (20% annually, implying ~6.5% over four months), but the rules exclude Aperture Hand Lab under Published, Valve said in November 2025 it had no new first-party VR game in developmen |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67-twin | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 11 | YES 8 | open +8 | model 0.42; edge +0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.42 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.28 >= 0.1): 11 is plausible under the new AIME-centered system, but unpublished rules and an abrupt regime change make the estimate highly uncertain. |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67-twin | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 12 | YES 6 | open +0 | model 0.36; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.36 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.22 >= 0.1): 12 is plausible under the new AIME-based system, but the unpublished criteria and undefined meaning of “cutoff” materially favor uncertainty. |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67-twin | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: <8 | YES 5 | open -2 | model 0.32; edge +0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.32 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.18 >= 0.1): Historically comparable USAJMO AIME-equivalent thresholds were usually around 8–10 (below 8 in roughly 2 of 10 recent observations), while 2027 switches to AIME-only selection for 400+ students; the rules do not define “cutoff,” c |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67-twin | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 9 | YES 5 | open -2 | model 0.32; edge +0.18; luna-medium price-blind says 0.32 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.18 >= 0.1): Historical rate: 0 comparable years, since prior USAJMO cutoffs were AMC+10×AIME indices; 2027 rules newly select primarily by AIME, with MAA invitations in late February after the Feb 5–6 AIME and competition Mar 20–21, so the un |
| 08-29 02:19 | v67-twin | Prototaxites get it's own kingdom before Christmas 2030? | NO 25 | open -8 | model 0.28; edge -0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.22 >= 0.2): Base rate: only about 4 major kingdom-level classification milestones occurred in 46 years (~9% annually), while taxon-specific promotion is rarer; the 2026 study supports a distinct extinct lineage but does not formally establish |
| 08-28 22:03 | v67-twin | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 20 | open +11 | model 0.06; edge -0.44; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.44 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 of 5 U.S. administrations since the ICC’s creation completing accession; despite the 2028 election (scheduled for November 7, 2028) and 2029–30 congressional sessions, Republican hostility and current rejection of I |
| 08-28 22:03 | v67-twin | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 19 | open +9 | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0 U.S. accessions in 28 years; despite a Democratic president after the scheduled 2028 election, Senate two-thirds consent, longstanding opposition, and current anti-ICC legislation make accession unlikely, with the U |
| 08-28 22:03 | v67-twin | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 13 | open +8 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0% for U.S. accession since its 2002 withdrawal of intent; formally “join” most naturally means depositing ratification/accession with the UN, but the absent rules create ambiguity that warrants moving somewhat toward |
| 08-28 19:02 | v67-twin | Will @jim publish an article on his AI timelines by end-of-month? | YES 25 | settled +20 | model 0.72; edge +0.22; luna-medium price-blind says 0.72 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.22 >= 0.2): A strong author-specific commitment signal and positive publication base rate outweigh the harder 1,000-word threshold and ambiguity over what qualifies as an AI-timelines article. |
| 08-28 18:52 | v67-twin | Who will win the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League :: Spain | YES 16 | open +12 | model 0.22; edge +0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: Spain has won 1 of 4 completed Nations League editions (25%); the rules clearly make the June 9–13, 2027 Finals winner decisive, with Spain facing the Sep 24–Nov 17 league phase and Mar 25–30 quarter-finals, while curre |
| 08-28 18:52 | v67-twin | Who will win the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League :: France | YES 16 | open +10 | model 0.22; edge +0.11; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs answer 0.11 (edge +0.11 >= 0.1): Base rate: France won 1 of 4 completed editions (25%); current outright odds imply roughly 20–25% (proxy), with the demanding A1 group, March 25–30 quarter-finals, and June 9–13 finals ahead, settled by UEFA’s official competition |
| 08-28 18:38 | v67-twin | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo | NO 63 | settled +39 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Cerundolo is safely in the draw but has only a modest baseline chance and a difficult path through Fritz and another top contender, so I estimate a 4.5% chance of reaching the semifinals. |
| 08-28 18:38 | v67-twin | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇺🇸 B. Nakashima | NO 60 | settled +38 | model 0.06; edge -0.45; luna-medium price-blind says 0.06 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.45 >= 0.3): Base rate: a fixed player has 4/128 = 3.125% raw semifinal-slot probability; the rules are clear and Nakashima is in the main draw, his recent hard-court surge merits only a modest uplift over base rate, the calendar has first-rou |
| 08-28 18:38 | v67-twin | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇺🇸 F. Tiafoe | NO 56 | settled -56 | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): |
| 08-28 18:38 | v67-twin | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇫🇷 A. Fils | NO 51 | settled +34 | model 0.11; edge -0.39; luna-medium price-blind says 0.11 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.39 >= 0.3): Base rate is roughly 10–15% for a No. 9–16 seed to reach a US Open semifinal; Fils is ATP No. 11 and won Cincinnati, but his first-round Tsitsipas matchup and likely Alcaraz/Shelton path suppress the narrative boost, with US Open |
17 trades, 475 staked, realised +92, open +96 if held / +66 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
17 trades for 475 mana. 6 of them settled for +92.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.