Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-29 04:09 | v67 | Will Valve release a new VR game before the end of 2026? | NO 69 | open +4 | model 0.01; edge -0.48; luna-medium price-blind says 0.01 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.48 >= 0.2): The historical rate is low and Valve explicitly denied having a first-party VR game in development, while Steam Frame’s launch is a weak but real catalyst. |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 13+ | YES 7 | open -5 | model 0.38; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.24 >= 0.1): Base rate: recent AIME means were roughly 4.3–6.6 with medians 4–6, making 13+ a small upper-tail outcome; the 2027 rules are new and omit a numeric cutoff, while the key calendar events are AMC exams Nov. 5/13, AIME Feb. 5–6, and |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 11 | YES 3 | open +2 | model 0.34; edge +0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.34 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.20 >= 0.1): 11 is plausible under the new AIME-driven system but the missing resolution definition and absent published threshold create substantial ambiguity, so I discount the historical 11–12 base rate. |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 10 | YES 4 | open -1 | model 0.28; edge +0.14; luna-medium price-blind says 0.28 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.14 >= 0.1): Historical published USAJMO index cutoffs were never 10, while the new AIME-based system could plausibly produce a score-10 boundary but leaves the term undefined. |
| 08-29 03:06 | v67 | What will be the USAJMO Cutoff for 2027? :: 12 | YES 7 | open -2 | model 0.38; edge +0.24; luna-medium price-blind says 0.38 vs answer 0.14 (edge +0.24 >= 0.1): AIME 12 is plausible given the 2026 percentile proxy, but the unpublished selection mechanism, changed exam format, and ambiguous resolution rules make an exact 12 cutoff substantially uncertain. |
| 08-29 02:19 | v67 | Prototaxites get it's own kingdom before Christmas 2030? | NO 22 | open -13 | model 0.30; edge -0.20; luna-medium price-blind says 0.30 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.20 >= 0.2): Base rate for a disputed fossil genus receiving a formally accepted, named new kingdom within four years is roughly 1%; Wikipedia currently reports a proposal for an undescribed extinct kingdom, but its rules are ambiguous because |
| 08-28 22:02 | v67 | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 21 | open +11 | model 0.04; edge -0.46; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate is 0/28 years since 1998; interpreting “join” as formal Rome Statute accession requiring presidential action and two-thirds Senate consent, the 2028 election (Nov. 7), 2029 inauguration, and 2030 midterms provide no mech |
| 08-28 22:02 | v67 | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 18 | open +9 | model 0.10; edge -0.40; luna-medium price-blind says 0.10 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.40 >= 0.3): Despite a 4.3-year window and possible change after the 2028 election, the US has had a 0/5-administration membership rate, formal legal barriers, and currently hostile policy, with rule ambiguity modestly increasing uncertainty. |
| 08-28 22:02 | v67 | Will the US join the ICC before EOY 2030? (Plus presidential conditionals) :: Will the US join the ICC before | NO 13 | open +7 | model 0.18; edge -0.32; luna-medium price-blind says 0.18 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.32 >= 0.3): US membership has been 0/28 years, and although a Democratic president would improve the odds, Senate supermajority requirements, longstanding sovereignty objections, and ambiguous resolution rules keep formal accession unlikely b |
| 08-28 21:01 | v67 | Will The Odyssey ever surpass Spider-Man: Brand New Day in daily domestic box office gross during their initia | NO 100 | settled -100 | model 0.05; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.05 vs market 0.48 (edge -0.43 >= 0.2): The Odyssey has stronger late-run holds, but Spider-Man: Brand New Day still leads daily actuals and has a much larger theater base and cumulative audience, making a future daily crossover unlikely. |
| 08-28 18:51 | v67 | Who will win the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League :: France | YES 3 | open +1 | model 0.20; edge +0.12; luna-medium price-blind says 0.20 vs answer 0.08 (edge +0.12 >= 0.1): Historical base rate is 1/4 Nations League editions (25%); the rules match UEFA’s group-and-two-leg-quarterfinal format, France faces Italy/Belgium/Türkiye in A1, fixtures run Sep–Nov 2026 with quarterfinals Mar 25–30 and finals J |
| 08-28 18:51 | v67 | Who will win the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League :: Spain | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.21; edge -0.16; luna-medium price-blind says 0.21 vs answer 0.37 (edge -0.16 >= 0.1): Base rate: Spain has won 1 of 4 Nations League editions (25%) and reached 3 of 4 finals; UEFA’s official rules resolve on the 2027 Finals winner, with league matches Sep-Nov 2026, quarterfinals Mar 25-30, and Finals Jun 9-13, whil |
| 08-28 18:36 | v67 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇺🇸 L. Tien | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.07; edge -0.43; luna-medium price-blind says 0.07 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.43 >= 0.3): Tien is a strong No. 14 seed with recent Grand Slam and Masters-level success, but his 2026 US Open semifinal probability remains only modestly above the 3.125% random-player base rate because of the deep field and difficult draw. |
| 08-28 18:36 | v67 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇪🇸 R. Jodar | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.08; edge -0.42; luna-medium price-blind says 0.08 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.42 >= 0.3): Jódar is a strong No. 13 seed with excellent recent form, but his projected best-of-five path runs through several substantially stronger opponents, keeping him near the 8% comparable-market estimate. |
| 08-28 18:36 | v67 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇺🇸 B. Nakashima | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.03; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.03 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.47 >= 0.3): Base rate is 4/128 = 3.1% for a random player, with seeds 13–16 producing 0/20 U.S. Open semifinalists in 2021–25; rules are clear, but Nakashima’s strong summer is offset by a draw projected through Djokovic, Medvedev, and Alcara |
| 08-28 18:36 | v67 | Which men's tennis players will reach the 2026 U.S. Open Semifinals? :: 🇦🇷 F. Cerundolo | NO 0 | unfilled | model 0.04; edge -0.47; luna-medium price-blind says 0.04 vs answer 0.50 (edge -0.46 >= 0.3): Base rate: Cerundolo has 0 Grand Slam semifinals in roughly 17 main-draw appearances, while a random entrant's four-of-128 semifinal rate is 3.125%; he is in the official draw as No. 24, but faces a difficult route through Fritz/C |
16 trades, 266 staked, realised -100, open +32 if held / +14 if sold, 5 unfilled.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
16 trades for 266 mana. 1 of them settled for -100.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 17:56Z.