Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 13:38 | v64-twin | MLB: Will the Philadelphia Phillies sweep the Atlanta Braves OR will the 4-game series total 32 or more runs? | YES 36 | settled -36 | model 0.80; edge +0.30; luna-medium price-blind says 0.80 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.30 >= 0.2): Current scoring rates project about 36.9 combined runs, so the 32-run condition is likely, with a smaller additional contribution from a Phillies sweep. |
| 08-27 13:24 | v64-twin | MLB: Will the Cleveland Guardians sweep the Detroit Tigers OR will the 4-game series total 31 or more runs? | YES 30 | settled +23 | model 0.76; edge +0.26; luna-medium price-blind says 0.76 vs market 0.50 (edge +0.26 >= 0.2): The 2026 MLB baseline is about 4.47 runs per team per game, implying roughly 0.73 probability of 31+ runs in four games; Cleveland's modest home edge and roughly 10–12% sweep chance raise the union to about 0.76, with MLB.com box |
| 08-27 12:40 | v64-twin | Will Cygames add a playable character based on an American racehorse to Uma Musume: Pretty Derby before 2030? | NO 33 | open -1 | model 0.22; edge -0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.28 >= 0.2): Base rate is 0 qualifying American-career horses among roughly 150 playable additions since 2021; although Global expansion and Cygames sponsorship of the Kentucky Derby/Breeders’ Cup raise the odds, the official 2026 pipeline rem |
3 trades, 100 staked, realised -13, open +3 if held / -1 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
3 trades for 100 mana. 2 of them settled for -13.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.