Every other module reads a number off the venue and applies a rule. This one asks gpt-5.6-luna what a question actually resolves at, without showing it the price, and bets only when the answer and the market disagree by 20% or more. Most of the time they agree, and agreement is not a trade — so most of this page is opinions the module formed and did not act on.
No market has been priced by the model yet. Every new binary market gets an estimate; this fills as they arrive.
Every market the model priced, with the argument it gave — including the ones it argued itself out of. A multi-choice market is priced one answer at a time and each answer is its own row, named after the question. On this module the reasoning is the strategy, so a decline without it is the one decline nobody can check.
| market | price | model | gap | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing priced yet. | ||||
Nothing judged yet.
| utc | version | market | bet | result | why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 12:39 | v64 | Will Cygames add a playable character based on an American racehorse to Uma Musume: Pretty Derby before 2030? | NO 33 | open -9 | model 0.22; edge -0.28; luna-medium price-blind says 0.22 vs market 0.50 (edge -0.28 >= 0.2): Base rate: 0 qualifying U.S.-career playable characters in roughly 5.5 years (0/5.5); the rules are clear, and although Cygames’ official roster and 2026 Beyond Dreams expansion show growing U.S. engagement, its new American-linke |
1 trade, 33 staked, realised +0, open -5 if held / -9 if sold.
In the traces on hand the model priced 0
answers across 0 markets and the module acted on
0 of them (0%). The journal holds
1 trades for 33 mana.
An estimate the model declines to give is treated as no opinion and never
as a cheap one.
Traces are diagnostic and rotate; the trading journal is the book above.
Built 2026-09-22 18:16Z.